TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[curtadams]

isnt it getting better organized? it looks way better than it did about 6 hours ago... nice convection and looks very nice on visible sat.

As of 45 minutes ago, there was no pressure drop or windspeed increase from the past 6 hours.

Not true. Pressure down 2 on the last vortex. Expect a wind increase on the next NE sample, too.

[tampastorm]

I think Ernie is headed for the GOM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

the radar and sat would make it look like ernie would go into the gulf but I pormise you it will curve into FL...Just wait and see.

That is a very risky statement!

[theworld]

IMHO... its jogging WNW and much improved.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... tte=ir.pal

Like I said in my IMHO, WNW.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Folks, don't forget that when he does go ashore in S Florida (maybe), he won't rapidly weaken like he would going into other land masses. South Florida is like a huge flat marshland of swamps with very very warm water in them. He will still be able to draw a lot of heat content from that environment. Remember Katrina? -she strenghtened crossing the state going through there didn't she?

Any strength gained before goign inland will be maintained until the swampland is traversed.

[Toadstool]

Folks, don't forget that when he does go ashore in S Florida (maybe), he won't rapidly weaken like he would going into other land masses. South Florida is like a huge flat marshland of swamps with very very warm water in them. He will still be able to draw a lot of heat content from that environment. Remember Katrina? -she strenghtened crossing the state going through there didn't she?

Any strength gained before goign inland will be maintained until the swampland is traversed.

Yes, same with Wilma... picked up a lot of moisture energy and really hit Broward and Miami-Dade.

[jasons2k]

It looks obvious to me it is well east of the forecast point and moving quicker than forecasted. The "now" was the 10AM position:

[storms in NC]

[quote="tampastorm"][quote="rnbaida"][quote="dixiebreeze"]I think Ernie is headed for the GOM:

Could you show me how this is going into the GOM Please?

Links ECT...

[THead]

Folks, don't forget that when he does go ashore in S Florida (maybe), he won't rapidly weaken like he would going into other land masses. South Florida is like a huge flat marshland of swamps with very very warm water in them. He will still be able to draw a lot of heat content from that environment. Remember Katrina? -she strenghtened crossing the state going through there didn't she?

Any strength gained before goign inland will be maintained until the swampland is traversed.

I know what you're saying, but it does weaken some storms, it took Andrew from a Cat 5 to a Cat 3 when he exited. On the other hand, it didn't effect Wilma much at all, and she actually rebuilt some of her southern eyewall while over Broward/Dade county.

[Derek Ortt]

Wilma weakened by 1 full category over the everglades

The evrglades will only dampen the weakening. However, weaker systems tend to weaken less over the Peninsula than do major hurricanes

[boca]

I think Ernie is headed for the GOM:

Could you show me how this is going into the GOM Please?

Links ECT...

Look at all the sattelite pics is moving quickly off towards the NW it might make it into the EGOM then turn Northward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[feederband]

It looks obvious to me it is well east of the forecast point and moving quicker than forecasted. The "now" was the 10AM position:

Thats just a clearing in the radar ...Not the center...

[wxman57]

Folks, don't forget that when he does go ashore in S Florida (maybe), he won't rapidly weaken like he would going into other land masses. South Florida is like a huge flat marshland of swamps with very very warm water in them. He will still be able to draw a lot of heat content from that environment. Remember Katrina? -she strenghtened crossing the state going through there didn't she?

Any strength gained before goign inland will be maintained until the swampland is traversed.

True, there is moisture. But the winds given in the NHC advisory are marine winds, not for inland use. You'll see an immediate reduction in wind velocity just inland, probably 15-20%. So 45-50 mph offshore would translate to 35-45 mph just inland (maybe 5-10 miles) and less as the center moves farther inland.

Convection is diminishing as of 2pm CDT. Still looks like a rain event for Florida and the Carolinas. I doubt there will be many reports of TS-force sustained 1-minute winds. Gusts to 50-60 mph certainly possible.

[Brent]

It looks obvious to me it is well east of the forecast point and moving quicker than forecasted. The "now" was the 10AM position:

Yeah it is. This storm isn't a big deal at all either... no way it's going to strengthen more than MAYBE 5 mph with no temperature difference.

and it's not going to the Gulf either.

[THead]

Wilma weakened by 1 full category over the everglades

The evrglades will only dampen the weakening. However, weaker systems tend to weaken less over the Peninsula than do major hurricanes

Weakening 1 category could be 1 MPH.

[miamicanes177]

Wilma weakened by 1 full category over the everglades

The evrglades will only dampen the weakening. However, weaker systems tend to weaken less over the Peninsula than do major hurricanes

Remember Wilma went through rapid intensification back to category 3 status right after crossing the everglades.

[chrisnnavarre]

Fast mover... He'd better apply the brakes soon of he will slide into the EGOM. Still below 25N and racing off to the NW. There will have to be a stall or due North motion then a lean to the NE. Gonna take some time, moving like he his. Even on the link below the storms orientation is leaning directly to the NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[CronkPSU]

i can definitely see how it COULD go into the EGOM, it is not that imlausible and idea as some here make it sound

[jasons2k]

It looks obvious to me it is well east of the forecast point and moving quicker than forecasted. The "now" was the 10AM position:

Thats just a clearing in the radar ...Not the center...

Look at a loop. It's obvious. It's headed for Key Largo/Upper Keys. No way it's going to the GOM.

[feederband]

I think its gulf bound..

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[jasons2k]

60mph wind guts near Conch Key