TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1122
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:

#181 Postby curtadams » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:55 pm

gtalum wrote:
rnbaida wrote:isnt it getting better organized? it looks way better than it did about 6 hours ago... nice convection and looks very nice on visible sat.


As of 45 minutes ago, there was no pressure drop or windspeed increase from the past 6 hours.

Not true. Pressure down 2 on the last vortex. Expect a wind increase on the next NE sample, too.
0 likes   

tampastorm
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 434
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 9:22 pm
Location: TAMPA

#182 Postby tampastorm » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:57 pm

rnbaida wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:I think Ernie is headed for the GOM:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg
the radar and sat would make it look like ernie would go into the gulf but I pormise you it will curve into FL...Just wait and see.


That is a very risky statement!
0 likes   

User avatar
theworld
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 197
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:33 pm
Location: DelMarVa

#183 Postby theworld » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:57 pm

theworld wrote:IMHO... its jogging WNW and much improved.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... tte=ir.pal


Like I said in my IMHO, WNW.
0 likes   

User avatar
TreasureIslandFLGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1581
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: Clearwater, Florida ~3 miles from the coast now. We finally moved safely off the barrier island!

#184 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Aug 29, 2006 1:58 pm

Folks, don't forget that when he does go ashore in S Florida (maybe), he won't rapidly weaken like he would going into other land masses. South Florida is like a huge flat marshland of swamps with very very warm water in them. He will still be able to draw a lot of heat content from that environment. Remember Katrina? -she strenghtened crossing the state going through there didn't she?

Any strength gained before goign inland will be maintained until the swampland is traversed.
0 likes   

Toadstool
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 264
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:46 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

#185 Postby Toadstool » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:00 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Folks, don't forget that when he does go ashore in S Florida (maybe), he won't rapidly weaken like he would going into other land masses. South Florida is like a huge flat marshland of swamps with very very warm water in them. He will still be able to draw a lot of heat content from that environment. Remember Katrina? -she strenghtened crossing the state going through there didn't she?

Any strength gained before goign inland will be maintained until the swampland is traversed.


Yes, same with Wilma... picked up a lot of moisture energy and really hit Broward and Miami-Dade.
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8246
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#186 Postby jasons2k » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:01 pm

It looks obvious to me it is well east of the forecast point and moving quicker than forecasted. The "now" was the 10AM position:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:

#187 Postby storms in NC » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:01 pm

[quote="tampastorm"][quote="rnbaida"][quote="dixiebreeze"]I think Ernie is headed for the GOM:

Could you show me how this is going into the GOM Please?

Links ECT...
0 likes   

THead
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 790
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: Lauderhill, Fla./Jefferson, Ga.

#188 Postby THead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:01 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Folks, don't forget that when he does go ashore in S Florida (maybe), he won't rapidly weaken like he would going into other land masses. South Florida is like a huge flat marshland of swamps with very very warm water in them. He will still be able to draw a lot of heat content from that environment. Remember Katrina? -she strenghtened crossing the state going through there didn't she?

Any strength gained before goign inland will be maintained until the swampland is traversed.


I know what you're saying, but it does weaken some storms, it took Andrew from a Cat 5 to a Cat 3 when he exited. On the other hand, it didn't effect Wilma much at all, and she actually rebuilt some of her southern eyewall while over Broward/Dade county.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#189 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:05 pm

Wilma weakened by 1 full category over the everglades

The evrglades will only dampen the weakening. However, weaker systems tend to weaken less over the Peninsula than do major hurricanes
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#190 Postby boca » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:07 pm

storms in NC wrote:
tampastorm wrote:
rnbaida wrote:
dixiebreeze wrote:I think Ernie is headed for the GOM:

Could you show me how this is going into the GOM Please?

Links ECT...


Look at all the sattelite pics is moving quickly off towards the NW it might make it into the EGOM then turn Northward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Last edited by boca on Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#191 Postby feederband » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:07 pm

jschlitz wrote:It looks obvious to me it is well east of the forecast point and moving quicker than forecasted. The "now" was the 10AM position:

Image


Thats just a clearing in the radar ...Not the center...
Last edited by feederband on Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23007
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#192 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:08 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Folks, don't forget that when he does go ashore in S Florida (maybe), he won't rapidly weaken like he would going into other land masses. South Florida is like a huge flat marshland of swamps with very very warm water in them. He will still be able to draw a lot of heat content from that environment. Remember Katrina? -she strenghtened crossing the state going through there didn't she?

Any strength gained before goign inland will be maintained until the swampland is traversed.


True, there is moisture. But the winds given in the NHC advisory are marine winds, not for inland use. You'll see an immediate reduction in wind velocity just inland, probably 15-20%. So 45-50 mph offshore would translate to 35-45 mph just inland (maybe 5-10 miles) and less as the center moves farther inland.

Convection is diminishing as of 2pm CDT. Still looks like a rain event for Florida and the Carolinas. I doubt there will be many reports of TS-force sustained 1-minute winds. Gusts to 50-60 mph certainly possible.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38107
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#193 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:09 pm

jschlitz wrote:It looks obvious to me it is well east of the forecast point and moving quicker than forecasted. The "now" was the 10AM position:

Image


Yeah it is. This storm isn't a big deal at all either... no way it's going to strengthen more than MAYBE 5 mph with no temperature difference.

and it's not going to the Gulf either.
Last edited by Brent on Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
#neversummer

THead
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 790
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: Lauderhill, Fla./Jefferson, Ga.

#194 Postby THead » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:09 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Wilma weakened by 1 full category over the everglades

The evrglades will only dampen the weakening. However, weaker systems tend to weaken less over the Peninsula than do major hurricanes


Weakening 1 category could be 1 MPH. :wink:
:D
0 likes   

miamicanes177
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm

#195 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:12 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Wilma weakened by 1 full category over the everglades

The evrglades will only dampen the weakening. However, weaker systems tend to weaken less over the Peninsula than do major hurricanes
Remember Wilma went through rapid intensification back to category 3 status right after crossing the everglades.
0 likes   

chrisnnavarre
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 309
Joined: Fri Oct 03, 2003 5:52 pm
Contact:

#196 Postby chrisnnavarre » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:12 pm

Fast mover... He'd better apply the brakes soon of he will slide into the EGOM. Still below 25N and racing off to the NW. There will have to be a stall or due North motion then a lean to the NE. Gonna take some time, moving like he his. Even on the link below the storms orientation is leaning directly to the NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
0 likes   

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#197 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:13 pm

i can definitely see how it COULD go into the EGOM, it is not that imlausible and idea as some here make it sound
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8246
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#198 Postby jasons2k » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:13 pm

feederband wrote:
jschlitz wrote:It looks obvious to me it is well east of the forecast point and moving quicker than forecasted. The "now" was the 10AM position:

Image


Thats just a clearing in the radar ...Not the center...


Look at a loop. It's obvious. It's headed for Key Largo/Upper Keys. No way it's going to the GOM.
0 likes   

User avatar
feederband
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3423
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:21 pm
Location: Lakeland Fl

#199 Postby feederband » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:14 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8246
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#200 Postby jasons2k » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:14 pm

60mph wind guts near Conch Key
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, LAF92, Teban54 and 40 guests