Well, I have to give JB some credit ... he did his homework ... he probably saw the CMC Ensembles as well as the EURO ... the ETA is coming towards the EURO's thinking, and in the case of Bill ... the EURO/ETA were gold (and was almost the sole basis of the successful Louisiana hit from 5 days out).
I'm not so sure about our system in front of T.D. #10, but FWIW, a couple of models DO develop the 20N, 44W wave after about 60 hours...
SF
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Stormsfury
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vbhoutex
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As Steve said JB may be a hyper hyper, but if you read his discussion it makes sense. The entire pattern is setting up just as he describes it. I saw the split in 92L this morning and we have at least a couple of models buying it at this point. AS ALWAYS we have to watch and see if there is any consistency in the next few runs of the models. Also, 84 hours out is not long range-that is considered mid-range. Now with that said, I go back to JB's discussion and note the part about the heat buildup. That is real and it is real that something has to release that heat to the more temperate climes. It could be 1, 2, 3 or more tropical systems of some sort but it will happen and it will happen sooner than later. The question is how and the models are currently suggesting one/some of the ways it may happen. I do not hug the models-I use them as guidance and therefore I never totally discount them unless they are showing a blizzard in Houston in August!
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Rainband
I agree!! Ours are almost always dead on to any GOM threat or any for that matterLindaloo wrote:Well, JB may deserve some credit for going out on a limb like he does... but there is no one better at accurate forecasts than your own local mets for your own area.
I am kind of concerned with the models now trending..so to speak!! :o
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