Heads Up Ticka & VBHoutex

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#21 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Aug 27, 2003 4:19 pm

Well, I have to give JB some credit ... he did his homework ... he probably saw the CMC Ensembles as well as the EURO ... the ETA is coming towards the EURO's thinking, and in the case of Bill ... the EURO/ETA were gold (and was almost the sole basis of the successful Louisiana hit from 5 days out).

I'm not so sure about our system in front of T.D. #10, but FWIW, a couple of models DO develop the 20N, 44W wave after about 60 hours...

SF
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#22 Postby Lindaloo » Wed Aug 27, 2003 4:38 pm

Well, JB may deserve some credit for going out on a limb like he does... but there is no one better at accurate forecasts than your own local mets for your own area.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

#23 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Aug 27, 2003 4:42 pm

As Steve said JB may be a hyper hyper, but if you read his discussion it makes sense. The entire pattern is setting up just as he describes it. I saw the split in 92L this morning and we have at least a couple of models buying it at this point. AS ALWAYS we have to watch and see if there is any consistency in the next few runs of the models. Also, 84 hours out is not long range-that is considered mid-range. Now with that said, I go back to JB's discussion and note the part about the heat buildup. That is real and it is real that something has to release that heat to the more temperate climes. It could be 1, 2, 3 or more tropical systems of some sort but it will happen and it will happen sooner than later. The question is how and the models are currently suggesting one/some of the ways it may happen. I do not hug the models-I use them as guidance and therefore I never totally discount them unless they are showing a blizzard in Houston in August!
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image
Top
Rainband

#24 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 27, 2003 4:43 pm

Lindaloo wrote:Well, JB may deserve some credit for going out on a limb like he does... but there is no one better at accurate forecasts than your own local mets for your own area.
I agree!! Ours are almost always dead on to any GOM threat or any for that matter :wink: I am kind of concerned with the models now trending..so to speak!! :o
0 likes   
Top
wrkh99

#25 Postby wrkh99 » Wed Aug 27, 2003 10:29 pm

JB forcast should not be posted here !!!!


PS Don't tell WRKH99
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lindaloo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 22658
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2003 10:06 am
Location: Pascagoula, MS

#26 Postby Lindaloo » Wed Aug 27, 2003 10:45 pm

wrkh99 wrote:JB forcast should not be posted here !!!!


PS Don't tell WRKH99



LOL!!!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 67 guests