JEANNE MODELS

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

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SwampDawg
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#21 Postby SwampDawg » Sun Sep 19, 2004 6:15 pm

I got ya...just a scientific guess.
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Patrick99
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#22 Postby Patrick99 » Sun Sep 19, 2004 6:54 pm

So now it's going to be a fish. Man, I'm not even going to listen to anyone anymore or look at any models.
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ColdFront77

#23 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Sep 19, 2004 6:58 pm

rbaker wrote:gfs for one I know goes out 144 hrs and beyond. How reliable it is, is another story. The TPC only goes out 5 days, which I don't like either. 3 days is much more consistant.

That's true, rbaker. I am aware of models that go out to 144, perhaps even 168 hrs. I was referring to the points on the majorirty of models... beings that the GFS is one that goes out 144 hrs and beyond and several others going out 72 hrs.
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snowflake
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#24 Postby snowflake » Sun Sep 19, 2004 7:44 pm

The National Hurricane Center's 5 pm discussion says that the models are in good agreement about a slow North to Northeast motion for 48 hours into a weakness in the Subtropical Ridge created by a huge low moving Eastward over the Canadian Meritimes. After that Jeanne gets close to Karl and they could interact.
The Official Forecast track follows a consensus of all the Global Models showing a slow generally eastward motion.
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Patrick99
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#25 Postby Patrick99 » Sun Sep 19, 2004 7:50 pm

Why would that low moving off Canada pull Jeanne to the east, seeing as the low itself is already further east than Jeanne? Why wouldn't the high behind it simply take over, and drive it SW?
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