GOM is very active right now......

CHRISTY · #21 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 15, 2006 3:11 pm

WHAT A MESS! :eek:

#22 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon May 15, 2006 3:48 pm

Christy, I'm tying to WILL some of that rain to come to Florida. You're right -- it's a mess!

HurricaneHunter914 · #23 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon May 15, 2006 3:54 pm

That is ALOT of rain! But honestly we really need that rain if we want these Red Flag Warnings to go away.

#24 Postby **feederband** » Mon May 15, 2006 3:54 pm

I hope it doesn't fissle out untill it gets to Florida. Need rain...

HurricaneHunter914 · #25 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon May 15, 2006 3:57 pm

I will make sure of it myself that this system doesn't fizzle out. :lol:

I mean every rain chance that tries to make its way to Florida fizzles out.

PTrackerLA · #26 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon May 15, 2006 3:57 pm

FWIW, the NWS New Orleans mentions this and the possibility of subtropical development:

THE ONLY REAL WEATHER FEATURE OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IS THE FLARE-UP
OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A VORTICITY
LOBE MOVES ALONG A FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY. THE MODELS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD AND MAINTAINING A LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION
AT THE SURFACE. WHILE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE A BAROCLINIC MCS
CHARACTER NOW...IT WOULD NOT BE TOO RADICAL TO SEE A SUB-TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP. HISTORICAL RECORDS SHOW A SUB-
TROPICAL STORM THAT DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON MAY
21 1976 THAT MOVED INTO FLORIDA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
ENOUGH IN THE AREA NORTH OF YUCATAN AND OVER THE LOOP CURRENT TO
WARRANT ATTENTION TO THIS FEATURE. STRONG BAROCLINIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF AND SURROUNDING AREAS WOULD SUPPORT THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINING A NOTICEABLE IDENTITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

#27 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon May 15, 2006 4:22 pm

local weather station says it will move in here tomorrow

#28 Postby **feederband** » Mon May 15, 2006 4:29 pm

fact789 wrote:local weather station says it will move in here tomorrow

Sooo...When did he say it will?

CHRISTY · #29 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 15, 2006 4:45 pm

00
FXUS62 KMFL 151852
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...POTENT STORMS FIRED UP RAPIDLY OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS AS EXPECTED. HAIL UP TO QUARTER AND GOLF BALL SIZE
ALREADY REPORTED. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SOME REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST A GOOD POSSIBILITY. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES VERY WET NEXT THREE PERIODS. FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THIS
WITH 60 TO 80 POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SOME ODD FEATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SHORTER
TERM...UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NAM PRODUCING
BETTER GUIDANCE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. RESPECTABLE UPPER DYNAMICS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY MAY HELP PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS...ONLY
PROBLEM BEING LACK OF INSTABILITY. WILL WATCH.
OTHERWISE...IMPULSES MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER THE STALLED FRONT
WILL KEEP RAIN COMING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
LATE SEASON "COOLER" AIR ON TAP.

#30 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon May 15, 2006 4:46 pm

What are the winds on this one?

I would have at least declared this 92L.Invest by now...

DoctorHurricane2003 · #31 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Mon May 15, 2006 4:54 pm

#32 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 15, 2006 4:55 pm

HurricaneHunter914 · #33 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon May 15, 2006 4:59 pm

I'm assuming Cycloneye that you are bored?

CHRISTY · #34 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 15, 2006 5:00 pm

stormtruth · #35 Postby **stormtruth** » Mon May 15, 2006 5:00 pm

Those two are not very wordy :uarrow:

HurricaneHunter914 · #36 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon May 15, 2006 5:01 pm

Okay, what is with the :roll:

?

CHRISTY · #37 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon May 15, 2006 5:03 pm

The GFS is developing LOW PRESSURE in the GULF OF MEXICO and moves it across SOUTHFLORIDA!I think this will occur... :eek:

#38 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 15, 2006 5:04 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:I'm assuming Cycloneye that you are bored?

Well not really very bored but amazed about how a handfull of persons think this mess will develop into a storm.

#39 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon May 15, 2006 5:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:I'm assuming Cycloneye that you are bored?

Well not really very bored but amazed about how a handfull of persons think this mess will develop into a storm.

Yeah, like some people at the NWS New Orleans...

I personally give it a 40% chance of developing.

HurricaneHunter914 · #40 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon May 15, 2006 5:07 pm

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg

With the temps in the GOM we could probably get something out of it but since the shear is so high it'll probably be a big ball of heavy, heavy rain.

GOM is very active right now......

Who is online