GOM is very active right now......
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dixiebreeze
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HurricaneHunter914
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feederband
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HurricaneHunter914
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I mean every rain chance that tries to make its way to Florida fizzles out.-
PTrackerLA
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FWIW, the NWS New Orleans mentions this and the possibility of subtropical development:
THE ONLY REAL WEATHER FEATURE OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IS THE FLARE-UP
OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A VORTICITY
LOBE MOVES ALONG A FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY. THE MODELS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD AND MAINTAINING A LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION
AT THE SURFACE. WHILE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE A BAROCLINIC MCS
CHARACTER NOW...IT WOULD NOT BE TOO RADICAL TO SEE A SUB-TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP. HISTORICAL RECORDS SHOW A SUB-
TROPICAL STORM THAT DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON MAY
21 1976 THAT MOVED INTO FLORIDA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
ENOUGH IN THE AREA NORTH OF YUCATAN AND OVER THE LOOP CURRENT TO
WARRANT ATTENTION TO THIS FEATURE. STRONG BAROCLINIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF AND SURROUNDING AREAS WOULD SUPPORT THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINING A NOTICEABLE IDENTITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THE ONLY REAL WEATHER FEATURE OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IS THE FLARE-UP
OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A VORTICITY
LOBE MOVES ALONG A FRONTOLYTIC BOUNDARY. THE MODELS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD AND MAINTAINING A LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION
AT THE SURFACE. WHILE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE A BAROCLINIC MCS
CHARACTER NOW...IT WOULD NOT BE TOO RADICAL TO SEE A SUB-TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOP. HISTORICAL RECORDS SHOW A SUB-
TROPICAL STORM THAT DEVELOPED IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON MAY
21 1976 THAT MOVED INTO FLORIDA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
ENOUGH IN THE AREA NORTH OF YUCATAN AND OVER THE LOOP CURRENT TO
WARRANT ATTENTION TO THIS FEATURE. STRONG BAROCLINIC TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF AND SURROUNDING AREAS WOULD SUPPORT THE
SYSTEM MAINTAINING A NOTICEABLE IDENTITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
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JonathanBelles
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feederband
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CHRISTY
00
FXUS62 KMFL 151852
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006
.DISCUSSION...POTENT STORMS FIRED UP RAPIDLY OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS AS EXPECTED. HAIL UP TO QUARTER AND GOLF BALL SIZE
ALREADY REPORTED. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SOME REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST A GOOD POSSIBILITY. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES VERY WET NEXT THREE PERIODS. FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THIS
WITH 60 TO 80 POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SOME ODD FEATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SHORTER
TERM...UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NAM PRODUCING
BETTER GUIDANCE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. RESPECTABLE UPPER DYNAMICS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY MAY HELP PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS...ONLY
PROBLEM BEING LACK OF INSTABILITY. WILL WATCH.
OTHERWISE...IMPULSES MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER THE STALLED FRONT
WILL KEEP RAIN COMING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
LATE SEASON "COOLER" AIR ON TAP.
FXUS62 KMFL 151852
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006
.DISCUSSION...POTENT STORMS FIRED UP RAPIDLY OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS AS EXPECTED. HAIL UP TO QUARTER AND GOLF BALL SIZE
ALREADY REPORTED. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
SOME REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST A GOOD POSSIBILITY. MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES VERY WET NEXT THREE PERIODS. FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THIS
WITH 60 TO 80 POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SOME ODD FEATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SHORTER
TERM...UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NAM PRODUCING
BETTER GUIDANCE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. RESPECTABLE UPPER DYNAMICS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY MAY HELP PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS...ONLY
PROBLEM BEING LACK OF INSTABILITY. WILL WATCH.
OTHERWISE...IMPULSES MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER THE STALLED FRONT
WILL KEEP RAIN COMING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
LATE SEASON "COOLER" AIR ON TAP.
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cycloneye
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HurricaneHunter914
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stormtruth
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HurricaneHunter914
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CHRISTY
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cycloneye
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Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:I'm assuming Cycloneye that you are bored?
Well not really very bored but amazed about how a handfull of persons think this mess will develop into a storm.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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CrazyC83
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- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
cycloneye wrote:Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:I'm assuming Cycloneye that you are bored?
Well not really very bored but amazed about how a handfull of persons think this mess will develop into a storm.
Yeah, like some people at the NWS New Orleans...
I personally give it a 40% chance of developing.
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HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
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http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg
With the temps in the GOM we could probably get something out of it but since the shear is so high it'll probably be a big ball of heavy, heavy rain.
With the temps in the GOM we could probably get something out of it but since the shear is so high it'll probably be a big ball of heavy, heavy rain.
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