JT has it 160 WSW of Manila with winds of 30 kt and generally tracks it NW across the SCS. Iba on the west coast of Luzon, due west of Clark which is inland on the other side of the Zambales Mountains, is reporting winds of 29 mph (10 min).
Steve
NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Jelawat (0602)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Model guidance doesn't intensify it much.
FXPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 260600UTC 14.5N 118.2E
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 15.5N 116.2E 000HPA 000KT
T=12 16.2N 115.7E -001HPA +002KT
T=18 17.0N 115.1E -002HPA +002KT
T=24 17.3N 114.9E -003HPA 000KT
T=30 18.2N 114.0E -003HPA -002KT
T=36 18.9N 113.2E -003HPA +001KT
T=42 19.5N 113.2E -003HPA -001KT
T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
FXPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 260600UTC 14.5N 118.2E
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 15.5N 116.2E 000HPA 000KT
T=12 16.2N 115.7E -001HPA +002KT
T=18 17.0N 115.1E -002HPA +002KT
T=24 17.3N 114.9E -003HPA 000KT
T=30 18.2N 114.0E -003HPA -002KT
T=36 18.9N 113.2E -003HPA +001KT
T=42 19.5N 113.2E -003HPA -001KT
T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Didn't post this previously but the TC bulletin from 0600 GMT had this forecast at 35kts in 12 hours.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 14.7N 117.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 16.1N 114.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 14.7N 117.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 16.1N 114.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
No change.
FKPQ30 RJTD 261200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060626/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TD
NR: 2
PSN: N1455 E11650
MOV: WNW 14KT
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 27/0000Z N1550 E11525
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 27/1200Z N1630 E11430
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
NXT MSG: 20060626/1800Z =
FKPQ30 RJTD 261200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060626/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TD
NR: 2
PSN: N1455 E11650
MOV: WNW 14KT
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 27/0000Z N1550 E11525
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 27/1200Z N1630 E11430
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
NXT MSG: 20060626/1800Z =
0 likes
-
JamesFromMaine2
- Category 4
- Posts: 989
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 1:38 am
- Location: Portland Maine USA
- Contact:
-
HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 062618.gif
Apparently we have the third TD of the WPAC season.
Apparently we have the third TD of the WPAC season.
Last edited by HurricaneHunter914 on Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
According to NRL and JTWC anyway, but it isn't official, not even anything from PAGASA yet. Then again, TDs are never official in the WPAC, and we probably won't see anything from PAGASA if the storm is moving NW, so I guess this is as good as it'll get at this point.
(psst - that's an awfully long link that could use some shortening, please!)
EDIT: Thanks!
(psst - that's an awfully long link that could use some shortening, please!)
EDIT: Thanks!
Last edited by WindRunner on Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
HurricaneHunter914
- Category 5
- Posts: 4439
- Age: 31
- Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
- Location: College Station, TX
I shortened it.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WindRunner wrote:Then again, TDs are never official in the WPAC, and we probably won't see anything from PAGASA if the storm is moving NW, so I guess this is as good as it'll get at this point.
That is not strictly true. This is officially a TD, it is just that they don't get numbered.
Latest model guidance:
FXPQ20 RJTD 261800
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 261800UTC 15.9N 115.8E
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 16.7N 115.3E 000HPA +001KT
T=12 17.0N 115.2E -002HPA +002KT
T=18 17.6N 114.7E -003HPA 000KT
T=24 18.2N 114.5E -003HPA +003KT
T=30 19.2N 114.1E -004HPA +004KT
T=36 19.8N 113.6E -006HPA +003KT
T=42 20.2N 113.0E -006HPA +003KT
T=48 20.9N 112.4E -006HPA +003KT
T=54 21.7N 112.2E -006HPA +003KT
T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
0 likes
-
WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
OK, so that's what I get for being out of town for a week. So if PAGASA did name it, and JMA is mentioning it, then I guess NRL/JTWC are just being a little slow. It's still looking pretty decent right now, though - don't know if that's any better or worse than earlier this week and I won't assume anything either. 
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Upgraded. Note the number of this is 0602 rather than 03W. 
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 114.3E POOR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 19.5N 112.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 290600UTC 21.4N 111.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
72HF 300600UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
The track image is here.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 114.3E POOR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 19.5N 112.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 290600UTC 21.4N 111.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
72HF 300600UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
The track image is here.
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Latest model guidance:
FXPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 114.3E
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 35KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 18.0N 114.0E -004HPA +005KT
T=12 18.6N 113.6E -004HPA +007KT
T=18 19.5N 113.3E -006HPA +011KT
T=24 20.1N 112.9E -008HPA +012KT
T=30 20.6N 112.4E -008HPA +008KT
T=36 21.3N 111.7E -008HPA +015KT
T=42 22.5N 111.4E -002HPA -003KT
T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
FXPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 114.3E
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 35KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 18.0N 114.0E -004HPA +005KT
T=12 18.6N 113.6E -004HPA +007KT
T=18 19.5N 113.3E -006HPA +011KT
T=24 20.1N 112.9E -008HPA +012KT
T=30 20.6N 112.4E -008HPA +008KT
T=36 21.3N 111.7E -008HPA +015KT
T=42 22.5N 111.4E -002HPA -003KT
T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Down by 2hPa to 998hPa, winds at 35kts.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 17.8N 113.7E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 280900UTC 20.1N 112.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
45HF 290600UTC 21.4N 111.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
69HF 300600UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 17.8N 113.7E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 280900UTC 20.1N 112.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
45HF 290600UTC 21.4N 111.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
69HF 300600UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
No change. The storm is now forecast to get stronger than previously though.
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 17.9N 113.3E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 20.5N 111.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 291200UTC 22.1N 111.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
72HF 301200UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 17.9N 113.3E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 20.5N 111.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 291200UTC 22.1N 111.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
72HF 301200UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
0 likes
-
Weatherfreak000
If anyone wants to see this TC then go here:
Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Beef Stew, Lizzytiz1, Orlando_wx and 47 guests