NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Jelawat (0602)

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Aslkahuna
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#21 Postby Aslkahuna » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:23 am

JT has it 160 WSW of Manila with winds of 30 kt and generally tracks it NW across the SCS. Iba on the west coast of Luzon, due west of Clark which is inland on the other side of the Zambales Mountains, is reporting winds of 29 mph (10 min).

Steve
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#22 Postby P.K. » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:27 am

Model guidance doesn't intensify it much.

FXPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 260600UTC 14.5N 118.2E
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 15.5N 116.2E 000HPA 000KT
T=12 16.2N 115.7E -001HPA +002KT
T=18 17.0N 115.1E -002HPA +002KT
T=24 17.3N 114.9E -003HPA 000KT
T=30 18.2N 114.0E -003HPA -002KT
T=36 18.9N 113.2E -003HPA +001KT
T=42 19.5N 113.2E -003HPA -001KT
T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
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#23 Postby P.K. » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:58 am

Didn't post this previously but the TC bulletin from 0600 GMT had this forecast at 35kts in 12 hours.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 14.7N 117.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 16.1N 114.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
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#24 Postby P.K. » Mon Jun 26, 2006 7:54 am

No change.

FKPQ30 RJTD 261200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060626/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TD
NR: 2
PSN: N1455 E11650
MOV: WNW 14KT
C: 1004HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 27/0000Z N1550 E11525
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 27/1200Z N1630 E11430
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
NXT MSG: 20060626/1800Z =
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#25 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Mon Jun 26, 2006 12:48 pm

03WNONAME.30kts-1000mb
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#26 Postby P.K. » Mon Jun 26, 2006 1:08 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 15.1N 116.3E POOR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 271500UTC 16.7N 114.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
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#27 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:13 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 062618.gif

Apparently we have the third TD of the WPAC season.
Last edited by HurricaneHunter914 on Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#28 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:18 pm

According to NRL and JTWC anyway, but it isn't official, not even anything from PAGASA yet. Then again, TDs are never official in the WPAC, and we probably won't see anything from PAGASA if the storm is moving NW, so I guess this is as good as it'll get at this point.

(psst - that's an awfully long link that could use some shortening, please!)

EDIT: Thanks!
Last edited by WindRunner on Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#29 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:31 pm

I shortened it.
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#30 Postby Aslkahuna » Mon Jun 26, 2006 4:59 pm

Actually, PAGASA named it Domeng when it was crossing the Philippines (they name TD's as well) but they have probably dropped it now that it's moving out of their AOR.

Steve
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#31 Postby P.K. » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:00 pm

WindRunner wrote:Then again, TDs are never official in the WPAC, and we probably won't see anything from PAGASA if the storm is moving NW, so I guess this is as good as it'll get at this point.


That is not strictly true. This is officially a TD, it is just that they don't get numbered.

Latest model guidance:

FXPQ20 RJTD 261800
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD
PSTN 261800UTC 15.9N 115.8E
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 16.7N 115.3E 000HPA +001KT
T=12 17.0N 115.2E -002HPA +002KT
T=18 17.6N 114.7E -003HPA 000KT
T=24 18.2N 114.5E -003HPA +003KT
T=30 19.2N 114.1E -004HPA +004KT
T=36 19.8N 113.6E -006HPA +003KT
T=42 20.2N 113.0E -006HPA +003KT
T=48 20.9N 112.4E -006HPA +003KT
T=54 21.7N 112.2E -006HPA +003KT
T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
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#32 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jun 26, 2006 5:23 pm

OK, so that's what I get for being out of town for a week. So if PAGASA did name it, and JMA is mentioning it, then I guess NRL/JTWC are just being a little slow. It's still looking pretty decent right now, though - don't know if that's any better or worse than earlier this week and I won't assume anything either. 8-)
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#33 Postby P.K. » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:26 am

Upgraded. Note the number of this is 0602 rather than 03W. :wink:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 114.3E POOR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 19.5N 112.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 290600UTC 21.4N 111.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
72HF 300600UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

The track image is here.
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#34 Postby P.K. » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:42 am

Latest model guidance:

FXPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)
PSTN 270600UTC 17.5N 114.3E
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 35KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 18.0N 114.0E -004HPA +005KT
T=12 18.6N 113.6E -004HPA +007KT
T=18 19.5N 113.3E -006HPA +011KT
T=24 20.1N 112.9E -008HPA +012KT
T=30 20.6N 112.4E -008HPA +008KT
T=36 21.3N 111.7E -008HPA +015KT
T=42 22.5N 111.4E -002HPA -003KT
T=48 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=54 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=60 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=66 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=72 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=78 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=84 ///// ////// /////// //////
T=90 ///// ////// /////// //////=
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#35 Postby P.K. » Tue Jun 27, 2006 4:49 am

Jelawat is a Malaysian word and means "Also known as Sultan fish. This fresh-water carp fish is normally found in big rivers. It is a very tasty fish and very much sought after by gourmets." according to the World Meteorological Organisation page.
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#36 Postby P.K. » Tue Jun 27, 2006 5:10 am

Down by 2hPa to 998hPa, winds at 35kts.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 17.8N 113.7E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 280900UTC 20.1N 112.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
45HF 290600UTC 21.4N 111.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
69HF 300600UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
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#37 Postby P.K. » Tue Jun 27, 2006 8:13 am

No change. The storm is now forecast to get stronger than previously though.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0602 JELAWAT (0602)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 17.9N 113.3E POOR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 20.5N 111.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 291200UTC 22.1N 111.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
72HF 301200UTC 23.5N 110.7E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
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#38 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 9:03 am

Awww...just when it looked like we were gonna catch up to them the WPAC pulls ahead.

Oh well, maybe this will be a surprise typhoon...
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#39 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:53 pm

LOL... I thought this was a threat bumped up from the Jelawat back in 2000. :lol:
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#40 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jun 27, 2006 12:56 pm

If anyone wants to see this TC then go here:

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

:lol:
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