One last hurrah - pulling a Zeta? E. Atlantic

[Chacor]

From 2100Z

[CrazyC83]

Looks at least subtropical if not fully tropical to me...well-defined closed circulation, strongest winds close to the center...if this was in season they'd likely have at least declared it an Invest (95L in this case), but they are much more cautious outside the hurricane season. What is the situation of the core, is it warm-core or cold-core?

[Coredesat]

They can't call it subtropical or tropical if it's still being analyzed as frontal.

[CrazyC83]

They can't call it subtropical or tropical if it's still being analyzed as frontal.

It doesn't look frontal according to QuikSCAT...although according to this it has a marginal cold core.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah it still has a frontal system on satellite, that you can clearly see. The quickscat shows on the other hand a nice close/tight wind field. We will see if it can stay for the next few days in develop close to that core.

I understand that you want this to be upgraded. In I wish more then most it would develop the convection to be so.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

A little more convection this morning.

[Coredesat]

Given how close the stable air is (note the stratocumulus to the NW), this system doesn't have much longer if it wants to become subtropical or tropical.



A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
26N38W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 26N37W ON THE 28/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE 26N37W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
20N45W 15N51W TO 14N60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
1009 MB LOW CENTER TO 24N35W 17N40W 13N50W 12N55W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 20N40W 18N44W
17N51W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NARROW LINES ALONG EACH TROUGH.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

Based on that, the system is no longer frontal, but is very complex; it has two surface trofs associated with it.

[CrazyC83]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 06/18.html

At 06Z, right on the warm core-cold core line...

[Chacor]

Those are MODELS. They do not necessarily accurately reflect the actual situation.

[Cyclone1]

Wow, honestly I expected it to be gone or clearly extratropical today.

And it appears to be gettig less extratropical I type.

I still can't see it forming, simply because of how unimaginably low the chances of an Atlantic year to year crossover storm coming only two years after Zeta are.

Rule of Hurricane Tracking: Don't expect the unexpected, just don't count it out.

[RL3AO]

Go south! I want Arthur!

[HURAKAN]

Loop

Looks very interesting.

[Frank2]

It does appear more tropical than yesterday, but, still not quite...

[Aric Dunn]

this should help on the frontal nature..
gfs brings it to possible subtropical


and of course the CMC is much more bullish with .. has it a full tropical system

[cycloneye]

1:05 PM EST Discussion:

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS STUCK OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING SW FROM A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 26N38W
TO JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1011 MB
LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR 26N38W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S
THEN SW TO NEAR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. A ROPE CLOUD DEFINES THIS
TROUGH ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1200 UTC
SHOWED VERY CLEAR THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE LOW CENTER AND WITHIN 75 NM
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH N OF 24N.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[HURAKAN]

Beginning to look more subtropical as convection tries to wrap around the LLC. Still, it cannot a be called a subtropical storm. Lets wait another 24 hours to see how it reacts. Nonetheless, it has made a great progress.

[CrazyC83]

Models all initialized this as a marginal warm core system...

[HURAKAN]

Still it needs to develop more convection near the center.