2022 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Ensemble support building for a TC behind Bonnie and Estelle.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1545140187939966977

[Yellow Evan]

[cycloneye]

South of Central America:
A low pressure area is expected to form by early next week south of
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system next week
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT.

West of Central America:
A low pressure area is expected to form by early next week west of
the coast of Central America. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system next week
while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT.

2. West of Central America:
A low pressure area is expected to form west of the coast of Central
America by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for some gradual development of this system next
week while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[skyline385]

GFS being GFS and taking out the entire Baja California peninsula

[Yellow Evan]

GFS probably spinning this up too fast but we’ll see.

[cycloneye]

No change.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development
of this system thereafter while it moves generally westward at 10 to
15 mph, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Ntxw]

Different season, different ENSO and Pacific state but reminds me of 2018 when every wave seemingly wants to become a storm just from that perspective.

If you look back at some 3rd year cold almost Ninas or Ninas, they had more ACE than you'd be led to believe in the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

Different season, different ENSO and Pacific state but reminds me of 2018 when every wave seemingly wants to become a storm just from that perspective.

If you look back at some 3rd year cold almost Ninas or Ninas, they had more ACE than you'd be led to believe in the EPAC.

Most of the years that are Ninas that were relatively active if not very active had a -AMO and in a couple cases also had a +PDO. Not the case here. The ceiling with a year like this is probably 2011 and that had had a +SPMM that prevented the ITCZ from migrating too far northward, leading to a higher intensity ceiling.

[cycloneye]

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Well, looks like this basin will keep the forming mode for a while if you believe GFS. IMO, what EPAC is doing is impressive especially with La Niña and -PDO. Having ACE at almost 40 with 3 hurricanes and two of them reaching cat 3 and Darby is going to be #4 is stunning.

[Ntxw]

Well, looks like this basin will keep the forming mode for a while if you believe GFS. IMO, what EPAC is doing is impressive especially with La Niña and -PDO. Having ACE at almost 40 with 3 hurricanes and two of them reaching cat 3 and Darby is going to be #4 is stunning.

https://i.imgur.com/aCv2MKB.gif

Even during unfavorable CCKW phases also. So something in the background is helping. SST's are not unusually warm. Most of the globe is rather quiet outside of the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and this system
could become a tropical depression by late this week. The
disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph, remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Do not ask me how the GFS is making the 0/50 a formidable hurricane in spite of 20 knots of shear. Probably issues with convective feedbacks here.

[cycloneye]

There is no doubt that this basin is overperforming with La NIña and -PDO having 5/4/2 with ACE over 40 units and that is impressive.

[weeniepatrol]

WPAC quaking in its boots

[Kingarabian]

Certainly over achieving. During active years, the EPAC usually has three peaks. We're in the first peak. After activity subsides it will be interesting to see if activity remains the same way when it gets close to August and then September/October.

[Kingarabian]

Different season, different ENSO and Pacific state but reminds me of 2018 when every wave seemingly wants to become a storm just from that perspective.

If you look back at some 3rd year cold almost Ninas or Ninas, they had more ACE than you'd be led to believe in the EPAC.

Most of the years that are Ninas that were relatively active if not very active had a -AMO and in a couple cases also had a +PDO. Not the case here. The ceiling with a year like this is probably 2011 and that had had a +SPMM that prevented the ITCZ from migrating too far northward, leading to a higher intensity ceiling.

Seems like seasons with early on El Nino symptoms/headfakes such as 2016/2017/2021 and now this year seem to favor early season EPAC bursts.

That being said, the PDO configuration currently looks like it's ready to flip positive later on this winter. We'll see if that continues with La Nina conditions strengthening again.