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Ensemble support building for a TC behind Bonnie and Estelle.
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Ntxw wrote:Different season, different ENSO and Pacific state but reminds me of 2018 when every wave seemingly wants to become a storm just from that perspective.
If you look back at some 3rd year cold almost Ninas or Ninas, they had more ACE than you'd be led to believe in the EPAC.
cycloneye wrote:Well, looks like this basin will keep the forming mode for a while if you believe GFS. IMO, what EPAC is doing is impressive especially with La Niña and -PDO. Having ACE at almost 40 with 3 hurricanes and two of them reaching cat 3 and Darby is going to be #4 is stunning.
https://i.imgur.com/aCv2MKB.gif
Yellow Evan wrote:Ntxw wrote:Different season, different ENSO and Pacific state but reminds me of 2018 when every wave seemingly wants to become a storm just from that perspective.
If you look back at some 3rd year cold almost Ninas or Ninas, they had more ACE than you'd be led to believe in the EPAC.
Most of the years that are Ninas that were relatively active if not very active had a -AMO and in a couple cases also had a +PDO. Not the case here. The ceiling with a year like this is probably 2011 and that had had a +SPMM that prevented the ITCZ from migrating too far northward, leading to a higher intensity ceiling.
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