Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[MiamiensisWx]

First advisory out...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010253
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST MON JUL 31 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 6 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[wx247]

Well, I started a new thread and posted the discussion a few minutes ago. Usually that is where it is posted instead of this thread. Please delete my other thread if I am wrong!

[Josephine96]

What is a "ropical depression forecast"

[fci]

Well, if the discussion prognostication holds true, then this will be another dry run where we follow something that dissapates soon.

Let's just hope that it does not drop a ton of rain before it dissapates on our friends in the islands.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like they are forecasting this to die out in 96-120 hrs., but until I see it; I don't believe it. I have seen a similar forecast be wrong many times in the past.

[Thunder44]

The intensity forecast looks way too conservative too me, but it's only the first forecast. I expect at least a TS from this.

[Andrew92]

If all global models dissipate this thing before it can get going, I can't disagree with that. No Chris out of this one I think.

-Andrew92

[Rainband]

Good News. I hope that it doesn't cause problems to our friends in the Islands.

[Air Force Met]

AFM - check the conversation below that and the huge dogpile we just made above your post - it's actually at 1009 per NRL, which may be a touch low, but is somewhat accurate.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

As I said...don't trust the NRL pressures...especially not on the initial advisory.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The intensity forecast looks way too conservative too me, but it's only the first forecast. I expect at least a TS from this.

I agree. Even Derek's forecast in the TA section brings this up to 50 kts. I think this will be Chris for sure.

Time to wait and see what happens with the forecast tomorrow morning...

[senorpepr]

Well, I started a new thread and posted the discussion a few minutes ago. Usually that is where it is posted instead of this thread. Please delete my other thread if I am wrong!

You were correct.

[shaggy]

strange that when all the globals forecast a wave to develop they are always right and should not be doubted but when they kill a storm its "i'll believe it when i see it"..I think this will make TS but barely but will be willing and ready to eat crow if it does something crazy!

[Rainband]

Looks like they are forecasting this to die out in 96-120 hrs., but until I see it; I don't believe it. I have seen a similar forecast be wrong many times in the past.

When. I have never seen all the models dissipate a system and it not happen??

[mempho]

They give it better than 50% chance of becoming Chris. Only a 15% chance of becoming H1 or better though.

[WindRunner]

AFM - check the conversation below that and the huge dogpile we just made above your post - it's actually at 1009 per NRL, which may be a touch low, but is somewhat accurate.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

As I said...don't trust the NRL pressures...especially not on the initial advisory.

I also said that 1009mb was going to be the lowest that it would possibly be . . . Sorry, maybe I'm a bit navy biased, but the Navy was a huge part of my family at one point, so I kind of trust it Not much of an excuse, I know . . .

[rockyman]

Thanks, Weather Underground!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like they are forecasting this to die out in 96-120 hrs., but until I see it; I don't believe it. I have seen a similar forecast be wrong many times in the past.

When. I have never seen all the models dissipate a system and it not happen??

Consider this: The same models that all kill it now did not do so this morning. I will wait for another model run or two before buying into their new ideas.

[Brent]

I think this is way too conservative...

[mempho]

Tropical Storm Watches up for some of the islands.

[bvigal]

I sure hope those intensities are right (not stronger), because it's coming right over us, and tomorrow night (0z), just like we thought - less than 24 hrs to get ready. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 63.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.