First advisory out...
000
WTNT33 KNHC 010253
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST MON JUL 31 2006
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 6 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.6 N...59.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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wx247
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Well, I started a new thread and posted the discussion a few minutes ago. Usually that is where it is posted instead of this thread. Please delete my other thread if I am wrong!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Rainband
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Air Force Met
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WindRunner wrote:AFM - check the conversation below that and the huge dogpile we just made above your post - it's actually at 1009 per NRL, which may be a touch low, but is somewhat accurate.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
As I said...don't trust the NRL pressures...especially not on the initial advisory.
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Extremeweatherguy
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I agree. Even Derek's forecast in the TA section brings this up to 50 kts. I think this will be Chris for sure.Thunder44 wrote:The intensity forecast looks way too conservative too me, but it's only the first forecast. I expect at least a TS from this.
Time to wait and see what happens with the forecast tomorrow morning...
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Rainband
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WindRunner
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Air Force Met wrote:WindRunner wrote:AFM - check the conversation below that and the huge dogpile we just made above your post - it's actually at 1009 per NRL, which may be a touch low, but is somewhat accurate.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
As I said...don't trust the NRL pressures...especially not on the initial advisory.
I also said that 1009mb was going to be the lowest that it would possibly be . . . Sorry, maybe I'm a bit navy biased, but the Navy was a huge part of my family at one point, so I kind of trust it
Not much of an excuse, I know . . .
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Extremeweatherguy
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Consider this: The same models that all kill it now did not do so this morning. I will wait for another model run or two before buying into their new ideas.Rainband wrote:When. I have never seen all the models dissipate a system and it not happen??Extremeweatherguy wrote:Looks like they are forecasting this to die out in 96-120 hrs., but until I see it; I don't believe it. I have seen a similar forecast be wrong many times in the past.
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