Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

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HURAKAN
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#201 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:35 am

Did the plane scheduled for 2 AM visited the system?
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#202 Postby whereverwx » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:35 am

This looks like a TS, and it looks so eerie.

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Last edited by whereverwx on Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#203 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:36 am

People I think we should follow the GFDL... this model was made of tropical weather.... Right now nobody is right on where it will go.. we'll just have to wait until we get the visible shots or wait until 11 for the NHC.
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#204 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:37 am

HURAKAN wrote:Did the plane scheduled for 2 AM visited the system?


There is not one scheduled until this afternoon.
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#205 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:37 am

MMM I think I see why the NHC put the Low there, looking at the visible loop on the NHC....interesting.
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#206 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:39 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Did the plane scheduled for 2 AM visited the system?


There is not one scheduled until this afternoon.


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT TWO
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 26/0345Z
D. 14.5N 70.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Oh, I see, that's tomorrow, the 26th!!!
Last edited by HURAKAN on Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#207 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:40 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I think I see what everyone else does now..
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#208 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:49 am

rnbaida wrote:Why doesnt the GFS develop the system al all?


Maybe it's on to something. As the NHC said in their discussion they would "not" be surprise if TD5 didn't survive the shear.
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#209 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:51 am

Stormcenter wrote:
rnbaida wrote:Why doesnt the GFS develop the system al all?


Maybe it's on to something. As the NHC said in their discussion they would "not" be surprise if TD5 didn't survive the shear.


could be...But i dont see why it wouldnt keep it minimal...It makes it look like shear destroys the whole thing....
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#210 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:55 am

skysummit wrote:Boy...the 06z Canadian really took a jog east. Now it has it at Panama City, Fl!


dont buy it, sensible weather says no dice.
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#211 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:59 am

Things better change ahead of it...Or as mentioned, #5 could be in trouble.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
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#212 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:00 am

^^
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

The tendency map isnt that bad, however.
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#213 Postby WmE » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:01 am

Yep, the TUTT keeps moving west.
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#214 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:03 am

It looks like the ULL near Cuba is slowly sliding westward. As long as TD5 doesn't catch up to it too fast, shear will probably decrease by the time it reaches that 50kt area.
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#215 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:04 am

TD 5 may dissipate over the E Caribbean. Heres hoping that it will

Excerpt from the TPC discussion:


THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST. FIRST OF ALL...
THE SYSTEM HAS TO SURVIVE THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IT WILL BE
EXPERIENCING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN
AND IT WOULDN'T BE A HUGE SURPRISE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE
IN THE "GRAVEYARD" OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... LIKE SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING.
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#216 Postby O Town » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:05 am

Wow is all I can say. I thought I would wake up and this thing would be falling apart the way it looked when I went to bed last night.

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#217 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:06 am

I hope it dies..

Otherwise things could be setting up to develop this into a very potent system, before even getting into the GOM.

*rah rah* shear.....
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#218 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:07 am

skysummit wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I saw that Canadian run, but not sold on it yet either. We've got to give these models another day or so to get a handle on things here.


EWG won't be too happy when he sees that run :lol:
why not? It is just a run of the Canadian that I doubt will verify. Based on the NHC discussion and track, I have a hard time believing this will end up in FL.
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#219 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:09 am

Well, regardless of where it goes into the gulf, I think we can all agree it'll be heading into much warmer waters down the road:

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#220 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:12 am

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