Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#201 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:35 am

Did the plane scheduled for 2 AM visited the system?
0 likes   
Top
whereverwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1109
Joined: Mon May 31, 2004 10:15 pm

#202 Postby whereverwx » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:35 am

This looks like a TS, and it looks so eerie.

Image
Last edited by whereverwx on Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#203 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:36 am

People I think we should follow the GFDL... this model was made of tropical weather.... Right now nobody is right on where it will go.. we'll just have to wait until we get the visible shots or wait until 11 for the NHC.
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#204 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:37 am

HURAKAN wrote:Did the plane scheduled for 2 AM visited the system?


There is not one scheduled until this afternoon.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#205 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:37 am

MMM I think I see why the NHC put the Low there, looking at the visible loop on the NHC....interesting.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#206 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:39 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Did the plane scheduled for 2 AM visited the system?


There is not one scheduled until this afternoon.


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT TWO
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 26/0345Z
D. 14.5N 70.5W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Oh, I see, that's tomorrow, the 26th!!!
Last edited by HURAKAN on Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#207 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:40 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I think I see what everyone else does now..
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#208 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:49 am

rnbaida wrote:Why doesnt the GFS develop the system al all?


Maybe it's on to something. As the NHC said in their discussion they would "not" be surprise if TD5 didn't survive the shear.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#209 Postby rnbaida » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:51 am

Stormcenter wrote:
rnbaida wrote:Why doesnt the GFS develop the system al all?


Maybe it's on to something. As the NHC said in their discussion they would "not" be surprise if TD5 didn't survive the shear.


could be...But i dont see why it wouldnt keep it minimal...It makes it look like shear destroys the whole thing....
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7192
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

#210 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:55 am

skysummit wrote:Boy...the 06z Canadian really took a jog east. Now it has it at Panama City, Fl!


dont buy it, sensible weather says no dice.
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#211 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:59 am

Things better change ahead of it...Or as mentioned, #5 could be in trouble.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#212 Postby Normandy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:00 am

^^
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

The tendency map isnt that bad, however.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WmE
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 696
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:23 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

#213 Postby WmE » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:01 am

Yep, the TUTT keeps moving west.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#214 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:03 am

It looks like the ULL near Cuba is slowly sliding westward. As long as TD5 doesn't catch up to it too fast, shear will probably decrease by the time it reaches that 50kt area.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#215 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:04 am

TD 5 may dissipate over the E Caribbean. Heres hoping that it will

Excerpt from the TPC discussion:


THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST. FIRST OF ALL...
THE SYSTEM HAS TO SURVIVE THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IT WILL BE
EXPERIENCING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN
AND IT WOULDN'T BE A HUGE SURPRISE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE
IN THE "GRAVEYARD" OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... LIKE SOME OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
O Town
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5205
Age: 52
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 9:37 pm
Location: Orlando, Florida 28°35'35"N 81°22'55"W

#216 Postby O Town » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:05 am

Wow is all I can say. I thought I would wake up and this thing would be falling apart the way it looked when I went to bed last night.

Image
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#217 Postby Stratosphere747 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:06 am

I hope it dies..

Otherwise things could be setting up to develop this into a very potent system, before even getting into the GOM.

*rah rah* shear.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#218 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:07 am

skysummit wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:I saw that Canadian run, but not sold on it yet either. We've got to give these models another day or so to get a handle on things here.


EWG won't be too happy when he sees that run :lol:
why not? It is just a run of the Canadian that I doubt will verify. Based on the NHC discussion and track, I have a hard time believing this will end up in FL.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#219 Postby skysummit » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:09 am

Well, regardless of where it goes into the gulf, I think we can all agree it'll be heading into much warmer waters down the road:

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#220 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 25, 2006 6:12 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: riapal, TampaWxLurker and 42 guests