Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 90L)

[TomballEd]

I've been saying the lemon should not have been dropped. Unless it undergoes such organization quickly enough to force a TD or PTC designation, this would need a recon flight, which is unlikely. Rain threat is real.

[Frank P]

lowest pressure I could find in the GOM was 29.85 at Station 42019 located at 27.908 N 95.343 W 60 NM South of Freeport, TX
2024-09-05 11:30 am winds WNW 11.7mph gusts 15.5mph pressure 29.85

[Frank P]

looks like perhaps multiple vortices rotation near the center

[Ubuntwo]

Wow, the NHC holds 10% at 2. Cut and paste. Limited confidence in further development, I suppose.

[LarryWx]

lowest pressure I could find in the GOM was 29.85 at Station 42019 located at 27.908 N 95.343 W 60 NM South of Freeport, TX
2024-09-05 11:30 am winds WNW 11.7mph gusts 15.5mph pressure 29.85

Even that (1011 mb) is significantly lower than the 1020 mb readings only 500 miles to the N thus meaning a decent gradient.

[Stratton23]

Een if it stays weak, the euro and 12 CMC runs are alarming in the sense of being big time rainmakers for central- se texas and lousiana

[Stormcenter]

NHC…….sometimes I have to just shake my head.

Wow, the NHC holds 10% at 2. Cut and paste. Limited confidence in further development, I suppose.

[wxman57]

looks like perhaps multiple vortices rotation near the center
https://i.ibb.co/0Jv4hwM/40872832-1.gif

Yep, I see a couple of vortices separating from the convection. This is a good sign, as development chances are lower.

[Stratton23]

Looks like very heavy rain is becoming a good possibility for texas and lousiana, could be a big problem regardless if it becomes named or not

[Frank P]

Looks like the LLC and the MLC has decoupled. LLC going south per the ICON model and the MLC going NE... it's gotten kinda discombobulated now

[HurricaneBrain]

ICON has performed extremely well with this system going back to early last week. The potential merger the ICON is showing (with the Caribbean system) has my full attention.

[Stratton23]

Not even surprised, it looks like the ICON was right all along with the LLC going south, kudos to the ICON for staying with that solution , now we watch and see how the interaction goes with the Caribbean wave

[LarryWx]

For the first time like the GFS/CMC, the Euro (12Z) has this (1011 mb now). It then drifts S (similarly to ICON/UK/others) while getting stronger. It doesn’t reach peak strength til Saturday, when it gets down to 1003 mb at 27N. Keep in mind that the Euro like the GFS/CMC is playing catch-up.

[Stratton23]

I think we have 90L for this now

[LarryWx]

I think we have 90L for this now

The 12Z Euro may have been what was the deciding factor for this.

[LadyBug72]

This is now 90L

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Een if it stays weak, the euro and 12 CMC runs are alarming in the sense of being big time rainmakers for central- se texas and lousiana

Our local weather guy posted that we looking at anywhere from 12"-24" by Saturday. This isn't looking good for Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes. Houma would definitely see street flooding.

[Iceresistance]

This is now 90L

It is? Where did you get that from?

[cycloneye]

Invest 90L is up

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