Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 90L)

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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#221 Postby TomballEd » Thu Sep 05, 2024 12:10 pm

I've been saying the lemon should not have been dropped. Unless it undergoes such organization quickly enough to force a TD or PTC designation, this would need a recon flight, which is unlikely. Rain threat is real.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#222 Postby Frank P » Thu Sep 05, 2024 12:16 pm

lowest pressure I could find in the GOM was 29.85 at Station 42019 located at 27.908 N 95.343 W 60 NM South of Freeport, TX
2024-09-05 11:30 am winds WNW 11.7mph gusts 15.5mph pressure 29.85
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#223 Postby Frank P » Thu Sep 05, 2024 12:51 pm

looks like perhaps multiple vortices rotation near the center
Image
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#224 Postby Ubuntwo » Thu Sep 05, 2024 12:52 pm

Wow, the NHC holds 10% at 2. Cut and paste. Limited confidence in further development, I suppose.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#225 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 05, 2024 12:52 pm

Frank P wrote:lowest pressure I could find in the GOM was 29.85 at Station 42019 located at 27.908 N 95.343 W 60 NM South of Freeport, TX
2024-09-05 11:30 am winds WNW 11.7mph gusts 15.5mph pressure 29.85


Even that (1011 mb) is significantly lower than the 1020 mb readings only 500 miles to the N thus meaning a decent gradient.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#226 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Sep 05, 2024 12:55 pm

Een if it stays weak, the euro and 12 CMC runs are alarming in the sense of being big time rainmakers for central- se texas and lousiana
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#227 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Sep 05, 2024 12:57 pm

NHC…….sometimes I have to just shake my head.


Ubuntwo wrote:Wow, the NHC holds 10% at 2. Cut and paste. Limited confidence in further development, I suppose.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#228 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:18 pm

Frank P wrote:looks like perhaps multiple vortices rotation near the center
https://i.ibb.co/0Jv4hwM/40872832-1.gif


Yep, I see a couple of vortices separating from the convection. This is a good sign, as development chances are lower.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#229 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:21 pm

Looks like very heavy rain is becoming a good possibility for texas and lousiana, could be a big problem regardless if it becomes named or not
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#230 Postby Frank P » Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:22 pm

Looks like the LLC and the MLC has decoupled. LLC going south per the ICON model and the MLC going NE... it's gotten kinda discombobulated now
Image
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#231 Postby HurricaneBrain » Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:26 pm

ICON has performed extremely well with this system going back to early last week. The potential merger the ICON is showing (with the Caribbean system) has my full attention.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#232 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:34 pm

Not even surprised, it looks like the ICON was right all along with the LLC going south, kudos to the ICON for staying with that solution , now we watch and see how the interaction goes with the Caribbean wave
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#233 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:37 pm

For the first time like the GFS/CMC, the Euro (12Z) has this (1011 mb now). It then drifts S (similarly to ICON/UK/others) while getting stronger. It doesn’t reach peak strength til Saturday, when it gets down to 1003 mb at 27N. Keep in mind that the Euro like the GFS/CMC is playing catch-up.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#234 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:43 pm

I think we have 90L for this now
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#235 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:47 pm

Stratton23 wrote:I think we have 90L for this now


The 12Z Euro may have been what was the deciding factor for this.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#236 Postby LadyBug72 » Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:49 pm

This is now 90L
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#237 Postby MONTEGUT_LA » Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:58 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Een if it stays weak, the euro and 12 CMC runs are alarming in the sense of being big time rainmakers for central- se texas and lousiana


Our local weather guy posted that we looking at anywhere from 12"-24" by Saturday. This isn't looking good for Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes. Houma would definitely see street flooding.
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (10/10)

#238 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 05, 2024 1:59 pm

LadyBug72 wrote:This is now 90L

It is? Where did you get that from?
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Re: Area of disturbed weather in NW Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 90L)

#239 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 05, 2024 2:12 pm

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