TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Big burst of convection right over the center. I expect this will be upgraded. Also hyerstorm if it go pass 15 north west of 35? Would it move into below 26c waters?

[clfenwi]

Intensity estimate from the AFWA is unchanged.

TPNT KGWC 220615
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
B. 22/0531Z (69)
C. 12.9N/2
D. 23.8W/3
E. SIX/MET-8
F. T1.5/1.5/STT: S0.0/09HRS -22/0531Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: N/A

LAING/CRUZ

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system sure looks like it has changed. Its developed a central core convection.

[clfenwi]

SSD's estimate is up:

22/0515 UTC 12.6N 23.6W T2.0/2.0 04L

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 220627
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042006) ON 20060822 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 0600 060822 1800 060823 0600 060823 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 24.0W 13.9N 26.2W 15.6N 28.5W 17.4N 30.9W
BAMM 12.5N 24.0W 14.4N 26.3W 16.4N 28.7W 18.6N 31.5W
A98E 12.5N 24.0W 13.3N 26.8W 14.2N 29.6W 15.3N 32.3W
LBAR 12.5N 24.0W 13.7N 26.6W 15.3N 29.3W 16.9N 32.0W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 0600 060825 0600 060826 0600 060827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.2N 33.6W 23.1N 38.7W 27.2N 42.4W 30.0N 42.7W
BAMM 20.5N 34.4W 23.8N 40.1W 27.1N 45.0W 30.0N 47.5W
A98E 16.9N 34.9W 19.6N 40.5W 22.9N 45.6W 26.9N 49.1W
LBAR 18.4N 34.6W 21.3N 39.7W 25.0N 44.4W 29.7N 48.9W
SHIP 52KTS 60KTS 63KTS 62KTS
DSHP 52KTS 60KTS 63KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 24.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 21.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 18.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats the 1800z or the 5pm models
You went for this is the 06z=5am

It sure is starting to look like a tropical storm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So they are keeping it the same even with the central core convection?

[Innotech]

where are you guys seeing sat imagery of this?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nrl navy

[clfenwi]

Until this is further west and in view of the GOES (something that won't happen for another day or so) http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html is probably the best place to go to for satellite imagery.

As for Matt's comment, the convective burst is not directly over the center, it is more "central" than previous bursts, but it is still displaced somewhat from the center of circulation. Note how the convection burst is over 25° W and how the position estimates are to the east of 24° W (with the model initalization right at 24°)

[southerngale]

where are you guys seeing sat imagery of this?

Sat image from NRL

[willjnewton]

where is the colorfull Infrared satelite image of tropical depression four though???

[CronkPSU]

where is the colorfull Infrared satelite image of tropical depression four though???

like the others have said, the pictures you are looking for come from the GOES sattelites which have not yet been changed to follow this system

[Thunder44]

So they are keeping it the same even with the central core convection?

They can still decide to upgrade by the 5am advisory if they see a significant change. I've seen them do it before.

[Regit]

From the 2AM advisory:

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.



This is VERY bad. CV has about half a million people and is an extremely dry country. This much rain this fast is not good at all. Would not be surprised to see multiple deaths as a result of this storm.

Currently on satellite it looks like most of the rain might miss. Let's hope so.

[Thunder44]

Until this is further west and in view of the GOES (something that won't happen for another day or so) http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html is probably the best place to go to for satellite imagery.

As for Matt's comment, the convective burst is not directly over the center, it is more "central" than previous bursts, but it is still displaced somewhat from the center of circulation. Note how the convection burst is over 25° W and how the position estimates are to the east of 24° W (with the model initalization right at 24°)

Yes, I notice that the burst seems somewhat displaced from the center. That may be causing them to hold off on the upgrade now. But it's hard to tell where the center exactly is on infrared imagery.

[Grease Monkey]

Looks like it's moving NW now or is it just the burst in convection giving that illusion?

[Thunder44]

Looks like it's moving NW now or is it just the burst in convection giving that illusion?

It's the burst in convection.

[willjnewton]

why hasnt this tropical depression, became tropical storm Debby yet?can someone tell me why because it currently on satelite images looks like a tropical storm debby to me, so please explain okay, thankyou

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2006 Time : 074500 UTC
Lat : 12:32:53 N Lon : 24:11:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -42.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 11:44:23 N Lon: 25:11:24 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************