TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2
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Intensity estimate from the AFWA is unchanged.
TPNT KGWC 220615
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
B. 22/0531Z (69)
C. 12.9N/2
D. 23.8W/3
E. SIX/MET-8
F. T1.5/1.5/STT: S0.0/09HRS -22/0531Z-
G. IR/EIR
38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.
AODT: N/A
LAING/CRUZ
TPNT KGWC 220615
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
B. 22/0531Z (69)
C. 12.9N/2
D. 23.8W/3
E. SIX/MET-8
F. T1.5/1.5/STT: S0.0/09HRS -22/0531Z-
G. IR/EIR
38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.
AODT: N/A
LAING/CRUZ
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WHXX01 KWBC 220627
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042006) ON 20060822 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 0600 060822 1800 060823 0600 060823 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 24.0W 13.9N 26.2W 15.6N 28.5W 17.4N 30.9W
BAMM 12.5N 24.0W 14.4N 26.3W 16.4N 28.7W 18.6N 31.5W
A98E 12.5N 24.0W 13.3N 26.8W 14.2N 29.6W 15.3N 32.3W
LBAR 12.5N 24.0W 13.7N 26.6W 15.3N 29.3W 16.9N 32.0W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 0600 060825 0600 060826 0600 060827 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.2N 33.6W 23.1N 38.7W 27.2N 42.4W 30.0N 42.7W
BAMM 20.5N 34.4W 23.8N 40.1W 27.1N 45.0W 30.0N 47.5W
A98E 16.9N 34.9W 19.6N 40.5W 22.9N 45.6W 26.9N 49.1W
LBAR 18.4N 34.6W 21.3N 39.7W 25.0N 44.4W 29.7N 48.9W
SHIP 52KTS 60KTS 63KTS 62KTS
DSHP 52KTS 60KTS 63KTS 62KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 24.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 21.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 18.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042006) ON 20060822 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 0600 060822 1800 060823 0600 060823 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 24.0W 13.9N 26.2W 15.6N 28.5W 17.4N 30.9W
BAMM 12.5N 24.0W 14.4N 26.3W 16.4N 28.7W 18.6N 31.5W
A98E 12.5N 24.0W 13.3N 26.8W 14.2N 29.6W 15.3N 32.3W
LBAR 12.5N 24.0W 13.7N 26.6W 15.3N 29.3W 16.9N 32.0W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 0600 060825 0600 060826 0600 060827 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.2N 33.6W 23.1N 38.7W 27.2N 42.4W 30.0N 42.7W
BAMM 20.5N 34.4W 23.8N 40.1W 27.1N 45.0W 30.0N 47.5W
A98E 16.9N 34.9W 19.6N 40.5W 22.9N 45.6W 26.9N 49.1W
LBAR 18.4N 34.6W 21.3N 39.7W 25.0N 44.4W 29.7N 48.9W
SHIP 52KTS 60KTS 63KTS 62KTS
DSHP 52KTS 60KTS 63KTS 62KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 24.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 21.3W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 18.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Until this is further west and in view of the GOES (something that won't happen for another day or so) http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html is probably the best place to go to for satellite imagery.
As for Matt's comment, the convective burst is not directly over the center, it is more "central" than previous bursts, but it is still displaced somewhat from the center of circulation. Note how the convection burst is over 25° W and how the position estimates are to the east of 24° W (with the model initalization right at 24°)
As for Matt's comment, the convective burst is not directly over the center, it is more "central" than previous bursts, but it is still displaced somewhat from the center of circulation. Note how the convection burst is over 25° W and how the position estimates are to the east of 24° W (with the model initalization right at 24°)
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- southerngale
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 27418
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
From the 2AM advisory:
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
This is VERY bad. CV has about half a million people and is an extremely dry country. This much rain this fast is not good at all. Would not be surprised to see multiple deaths as a result of this storm.
Currently on satellite it looks like most of the rain might miss. Let's hope so.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
This is VERY bad. CV has about half a million people and is an extremely dry country. This much rain this fast is not good at all. Would not be surprised to see multiple deaths as a result of this storm.
Currently on satellite it looks like most of the rain might miss. Let's hope so.
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clfenwi wrote:Until this is further west and in view of the GOES (something that won't happen for another day or so) http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html is probably the best place to go to for satellite imagery.
As for Matt's comment, the convective burst is not directly over the center, it is more "central" than previous bursts, but it is still displaced somewhat from the center of circulation. Note how the convection burst is over 25° W and how the position estimates are to the east of 24° W (with the model initalization right at 24°)
Yes, I notice that the burst seems somewhat displaced from the center. That may be causing them to hold off on the upgrade now. But it's hard to tell where the center exactly is on infrared imagery.
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- Grease Monkey
- Category 2
- Posts: 727
- Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 9:25 pm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2006 Time : 074500 UTC
Lat : 12:32:53 N Lon : 24:11:50 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -42.0C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 11:44:23 N Lon: 25:11:24 W
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2006 Time : 074500 UTC
Lat : 12:32:53 N Lon : 24:11:50 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -42.0C
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 11:44:23 N Lon: 25:11:24 W
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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