2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[kevin]

I think 2005 has given many people the false idea that an extreme season must have strong hurricanes in June/July in order to become as iconic. But with the exception of a few years, most previous hyperactive seasons were pretty quiet at least until August rolled around. Here below I made an overview of all hyperactive seasons with the following stats: number of named storms before August 1, date of the first hurricane, date of the first major hurricane. While June/July hurricanes are more common in the most extreme seasons, you can see that some of the busiest season didn't have their first hurricane until well into August, let alone their first MH.

Year / NS before August 1 / Date first hurricane / Date first MH

Pre-satellite era:
1878 / 1 / August 15 / September 30
1886 / 4 / June 14 / August 19
1887 / 5 / July 21 / August 20
1893 / 2 / June 17 / August 17
1906 / 2 / June 16 / September 2
1926 / 2 / July 25 / July 25
1932 / 1 / August 13 / August 13
1933 / 5 / June 27 / August 18
1950 / 0 / August 17 / August 17
1961 / 1 / July 20 / September 6
1964 / 3 / August 1 / August 22

Satellite era:
1969 / 1 / August 11 / August 16
1995 / 5 / June 4 / August 12
1996 / 3 / July 7 / July 9
1998 / 1 / August 22 / August 23
1999 / 1 / August 20 / August 22
2003 / 4 / July 14 / August 30
2004 / 1 / August 3 / August 5
2005 / 7 / July 6 / July 7
2010 / 2 / June 30 / August 27
2017 / 5 / August 9 / August 25
2020 / 9 / July 25 / August 26

2022 / 3 / NA / NA

[Iceresistance]

SSTs appear be above 30°C in the Gulf of Mexico already.

Still below normal in the MDR region, likely miscalculating from the amount of dust is in the air from the Sahara.

[skyline385]

SSTs appear be above 30°C in the Gulf of Mexico already.

Still below normal in the MDR region, likely miscalculating from the amount of dust is in the air from the Sahara.

What’s funny is that the Gulf SSTa have actually cooled down a bit in the last month even though almost all of it is above 30C. It’s still running above average but the anomalies were much higher just a few days ago.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1552648820541968389

[NDG]

IMHO all I know is that during the next 10-14 days at least the western MDR is going to continue to be shut down with stronger than average shear, this is not the typical La Nina pattern we would see as we head into to August especially since El Nino hasn't been around since 2019.
I just came back from vacationing in Cancun, when I booked this trip back in April I thought that I had made a bad decision, I thought for sure that by late July there was going to be a threat across the Caribbean for tropical development, instead I saw just a couple of tropical showers pass by that rain themselves out from the dry environment which was surprising because there was no dust at all present.

[Category5Kaiju]

IMHO all I know is that during the next 10-14 days at least the western MDR is going to continue to be shut down with stronger than average shear, this is not the typical La Nina pattern we would see as we head into to August especially since El Nino hasn't been around since 2019.
I just came back from vacationing in Cancun, when I booked this trip back in April I thought that I had made a bad decision, I thought for sure that by late July there was going to be a threat across the Caribbean for tropical development, instead I saw just a couple of tropical showers pass by that rain themselves out from the dry environment which was surprising because there was no dust at all present.

https://i.imgur.com/BnSmUYG.gif

Aren't shear forecasts that go out that far in advance not to be taken at face value though? Shear is very dynamic, and I remember how people were cautioning about how shear forecasts that far out in time can oftentimes not be very reliable in last year's indicators thread

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMHO, one only needs to look to 2017 & 2004. Neither season started off very impressive... until mid-August when all hell broke loose

[MHC Tracking]

SSTs appear be above 30°C in the Gulf of Mexico already.

Still below normal in the MDR region, likely miscalculating from the amount of dust is in the air from the Sahara.

They are not below average in the MDR, only in the subtropics

[cycloneye]

SSTs appear be above 30°C in the Gulf of Mexico already.

Still below normal in the MDR region, likely miscalculating from the amount of dust is in the air from the Sahara.

They are not below average in the MDR, only in the subtropics
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2022/coraltemp5km_ssta_20220725_large.gif

Is that area of blue in the equator the Atlantic La Niña?

[MHC Tracking]

SSTs appear be above 30°C in the Gulf of Mexico already.

Still below normal in the MDR region, likely miscalculating from the amount of dust is in the air from the Sahara.

They are not below average in the MDR, only in the subtropics
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2022/coraltemp5km_ssta_20220725_large.gif

Is that area of blue in the equator the Atlantic La Niña?

Yes, the cooler than average SST's near the Gulf Of Guinea indicate the Atlantic Nina

[SFLcane]

Was not sure were to leave this article but i thought it was interesting as it speaks about current and expected condtions across the tropical atlantic from John Morales

It’s all about perception, though. We’ve had three named storms so far, where the normal by this date is two. We’ve had zero hurricanes, where the normal by this date is also zero. You read that right—the first hurricane of the Atlantic season on average shows up by August 11. From this measure, the season is pretty much behaving as a hurricane season should

Despite Perceived Slow Start, 2022 Hurricane Season Behaving Normally

https://www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurric ... y/2822047/

[hurricane2025]

How do I post a image ?

[SFLcane]

How do I post a image ?

Hello, so you can find a hosting site like this one which will allow to upload any images from your pc or mobile phone.

https://postimages.org/

Click on the " img" tab and place the url from the host site in between the "img" . Your done.

Hope this helps.

[NDG]

IMHO all I know is that during the next 10-14 days at least the western MDR is going to continue to be shut down with stronger than average shear, this is not the typical La Nina pattern we would see as we head into to August especially since El Nino hasn't been around since 2019.
I just came back from vacationing in Cancun, when I booked this trip back in April I thought that I had made a bad decision, I thought for sure that by late July there was going to be a threat across the Caribbean for tropical development, instead I saw just a couple of tropical showers pass by that rain themselves out from the dry environment which was surprising because there was no dust at all present.

https://i.imgur.com/BnSmUYG.gif

Aren't shear forecasts that go out that far in advance not to be taken at face value though? Shear is very dynamic, and I remember how people were cautioning about how shear forecasts that far out in time can oftentimes not be very reliable in last year's indicators thread

From my amateur experience shear forecasts this time of the year from global models usually go the other way around, they forecast less hostile conditions past their 5-7 day range forecast than what comes to fruition this time of the year. And here is a great example for early next week's shear forecast.

[Cpv17]

IMHO all I know is that during the next 10-14 days at least the western MDR is going to continue to be shut down with stronger than average shear, this is not the typical La Nina pattern we would see as we head into to August especially since El Nino hasn't been around since 2019.
I just came back from vacationing in Cancun, when I booked this trip back in April I thought that I had made a bad decision, I thought for sure that by late July there was going to be a threat across the Caribbean for tropical development, instead I saw just a couple of tropical showers pass by that rain themselves out from the dry environment which was surprising because there was no dust at all present.

https://i.imgur.com/BnSmUYG.gif

I’d never expect anything in late July regardless of any background state.

[hurricane2025]

https://postimg.cc/kDCX35Fs/1b15a482

[hurricane2025]

https://postimg.cc/kDCX35Fs/1b15a482

Euro august to October map

[SFLcane]

Ugly..

You sure la nina is in the epac?

[skyline385]

IMHO all I know is that during the next 10-14 days at least the western MDR is going to continue to be shut down with stronger than average shear, this is not the typical La Nina pattern we would see as we head into to August especially since El Nino hasn't been around since 2019.
I just came back from vacationing in Cancun, when I booked this trip back in April I thought that I had made a bad decision, I thought for sure that by late July there was going to be a threat across the Caribbean for tropical development, instead I saw just a couple of tropical showers pass by that rain themselves out from the dry environment which was surprising because there was no dust at all present.

https://i.imgur.com/BnSmUYG.gif

Aren't shear forecasts that go out that far in advance not to be taken at face value though? Shear is very dynamic, and I remember how people were cautioning about how shear forecasts that far out in time can oftentimes not be very reliable in last year's indicators thread

From my amateur experience shear forecasts this time of the year from global models usually go the other way around, they forecast less hostile conditions past their 5-7 day range forecast than what comes to fruition this time of the year. And here is a great example for early next week's shear forecast.

It results from using ensemble means for shear (and other wind-based) forecasts. The different perturbations introduced in the ensemble members to get varying results start to blend in and as a result cancel each other out. One of the options when looking at such forecasts very far out is to use the control member. It won’t be very accurate because it’s just one undisturbed ensemble member but it will be better than the mean. Note that when looking at near term forecasts, means will be the best to use.

[Teban54]

Ugly..

You sure la nina is in the epac?

https://i.postimg.cc/hjG1GTHv/shear.gif

That's still early August. Nothing unexpected IMO.