Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)
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- toad strangler
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
12z CMC shows a very weak wave into MX
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
12Z GFS dropped development. Let's see what the 12Z Euro says in a couple hours. Still over 200 hours out, so don't be surprised for the models to go back and forth with development until either completely dropping it or locking in on development.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
Noon discussion of wave by the San Juan NWS.
A vigorous tropical wave is forecast to move into the eastern
Caribbean by Wednesday morning reaching the local islands by
Wednesday afternoon. Model guidance are suggesting moisture and
vorticity advection with this system, which could enhance
convection especially on Wednesday afternoon across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. The trailing moisture of
this wave will linger across the islands through at least Friday.
Caribbean by Wednesday morning reaching the local islands by
Wednesday afternoon. Model guidance are suggesting moisture and
vorticity advection with this system, which could enhance
convection especially on Wednesday afternoon across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. The trailing moisture of
this wave will linger across the islands through at least Friday.
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
ronjon wrote:Development chances look near zero based on shear and dry air until it approaches the Bahamas - however global models from that point into the GOM show favorable conditions for development. Given that the latent heat from the GOM is untapped so far, this one might develop a little more deeply than expected.
true i want see grow before i agree with models right now only very few storm with it let see models are over do it with wave and let see two show by thur
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
12z GFS maintains the vorticity but just runs it further north over land so it doesn't develop in the GOM.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
12z Euro has it in the Bahamas.This is at 120 hours.


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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
cycloneye wrote:12z Euro has it in the Bahamas.This is at 120 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... seus_6.png
The vort seems to be a little more well developed earlier this run then the 0z run.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
At 144 hours much better defined.


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- Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
12z Euro developing this in the Bahamas
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Michael
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
EURO has a TD or weak TS into SFL...so it trended a bit stronger
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- Bocadude85
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
Perhaps a Tropical storm threat for S.Fla on the 12Z Euro
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
Between 96 thru 144 hours it slows down a little bit.
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
what's the ridge looking like my computer is acting up
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
cycloneye wrote:At 144 hours much better defined.
Look at how fast this is though. This is Monday, less than a week out.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
168 hours, stronger as it leaves west coast of FL back into the EGOM, heading remains NW currently:


Last edited by USTropics on Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
cycloneye wrote:Between 96 thru 144 hours it slows down a little bit.

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- SFLcane
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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
Oh oh...intensifying TS into FL and into the GOM.. 

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Re: Tropical Wave approaching Lesser Antilles
SFLcane wrote:Oh oh...intensifying TS into FL and into the GOM..
REMINDS ME OF 05'
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