Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[toad strangler]

12z CMC shows a very weak wave into MX

[fendie]

12Z GFS dropped development. Let's see what the 12Z Euro says in a couple hours. Still over 200 hours out, so don't be surprised for the models to go back and forth with development until either completely dropping it or locking in on development.

[cycloneye]

Noon discussion of wave by the San Juan NWS.

A vigorous tropical wave is forecast to move into the eastern
Caribbean by Wednesday morning reaching the local islands by
Wednesday afternoon. Model guidance are suggesting moisture and
vorticity advection with this system, which could enhance
convection especially on Wednesday afternoon across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. The trailing moisture of
this wave will linger across the islands through at least Friday.

[floridasun78]

Development chances look near zero based on shear and dry air until it approaches the Bahamas - however global models from that point into the GOM show favorable conditions for development. Given that the latent heat from the GOM is untapped so far, this one might develop a little more deeply than expected.

true i want see grow before i agree with models right now only very few storm with it let see models are over do it with wave and let see two show by thur

[ronjon]

12z GFS maintains the vorticity but just runs it further north over land so it doesn't develop in the GOM.

[wxGuy]

lets just see what the euro has for us

[cycloneye]

12z Euro has it in the Bahamas.This is at 120 hours.

[Bocadude85]

12z Euro has it in the Bahamas.This is at 120 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... seus_6.png

The vort seems to be a little more well developed earlier this run then the 0z run.

[mcheer23]

144 HR ...approaching Miami

[cycloneye]

At 144 hours much better defined.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro developing this in the Bahamas

[SFLcane]

EURO has a TD or weak TS into SFL...so it trended a bit stronger

[Bocadude85]

Perhaps a Tropical storm threat for S.Fla on the 12Z Euro

[cycloneye]

Between 96 thru 144 hours it slows down a little bit.

[stormlover2013]

what's the ridge looking like my computer is acting up

[SoupBone]

At 144 hours much better defined.

Look at how fast this is though. This is Monday, less than a week out.

[USTropics]

168 hours, stronger as it leaves west coast of FL back into the EGOM, heading remains NW currently:

[cycloneye]

Between 96 thru 144 hours it slows down a little bit.

[SFLcane]

Oh oh...intensifying TS into FL and into the GOM..

[wxGuy]

Oh oh...intensifying TS into FL and into the GOM..

REMINDS ME OF 05'