Possible development in the Western Atlantic / GOM (Is Invest 97L)

[tropicwatch]

Whatever the 50% chance of development is based on. We might have a quick spin up situation. Right now there doesn't seem to be anything that would make it happen.

[Ubuntwo]

Whatever the 50% chance of development is based on. We might have a quick spin up situation. Right now there doesn't see to be anything that would make it happen. https://tropicwatch.info/GOES16-TAW-13-900x54007292024.gif

It's dry, but the juice is there.

[Stratton23]

GFS wants to shunt the wave axis westward inland towards lousiana or extreme eastern texas , big differences in the 500 mb height pattern

[LarryWx]

For the 2nd 12z JMA in a row, it has what looks like a TD from near or just E of FL. It then moves NNE to 100-150 miles SE of the NC/SC border.

[Category5Kaiju]

Starting to think at this point we could see a Gert 2017-like storm, or at least one that takes a similar track

[SFLcane]

Gfs- RIP

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

GFS: nothing

Euro: 24 inches of rain in Charleston

Hmmm

[skyline385]

GFS: nothing

Euro: 24 inches of rain in Charleston

Hmmm

You are comparing 18z GFS to 12z Euro, 12z GFS had the system stalled over Gulfport just like the Euro had it stalled over Charleston

[Ubuntwo]

The 12z GFS came within 20 miles of moving ashore before steering collapsed and allowed for brief development. As with the last two instances of the GFS dropping this system, development (with its solution) was riding on a razor's edge in the first place. There are no major synoptic or structural differences between the two runs in the mid term. The GFS remains alone in providing favorable upper-level winds south of the islands rather than north of them. If that does pan out, huge win for the GFS, but we will see.

[Ubuntwo]

18z EPS has 75% of members developing. Most in the mid-grade TS camp, a few hurricanes all on the eastern end of guidance.

[Blown Away]

18z ECENS more active and west than 12z…

[BobHarlem]

0z icon has shifted right again toward Euro, and now stays east of Florida, but goes through Bahamas and just stays offshore all the way to the outer banks and then out to sea, but gets up to hurricane strength as it passes by the OBX.

[Stratton23]

00z CMC has less defined weakness off the se coast isnt as defined as it was in precious runs, little more ridging this run, closer to florida , trough/ shortwave is trending east and weaker

[Stratton23]

GFS has a more developed system that gets trapped underneath ridging in the gulf, headed west-1002 mb to the south of new orleans

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: large shift SW and much earlier TCG just N of C Cuba with TS near Key West then turns into FL Big Bend followed by NNE motion into SC/SE GA, NE into coastal SC and then ENE move to offshore CHS; TS nearly the entire track

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 22.8N 79.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2024 108 23.3N 79.9W 1007 37
0000UTC 04.08.2024 120 24.8N 81.8W 1004 39
1200UTC 04.08.2024 132 26.9N 83.2W 1003 37
0000UTC 05.08.2024 144 28.9N 83.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 05.08.2024 156 31.4N 82.5W 1008 36
0000UTC 06.08.2024 168 32.8N 79.4W 1006 35

[Stratton23]

GFS down to 991 MB, south of vermillion bay and still moving west, interesting

[Ubuntwo]

Model bifurcation comes down to the ULL situated at roughly 35N 55W. Euro and most other models lift it north starting in a day. The GFS pushes it south around the same time. This shifts anticyclone development north of/just south of the Greater Antilles respectively. The wave envelope is large enough to potentially develop from either side, but vorticity will be higher to the north so it'll be a lot quicker to spin up if an anticyclone situated there. The flip side is this outcome has a clearer route for a recurve.

[Stratton23]

GFS goes into galveston as a strong cat 1, we will see, but a very interesting trend tonight, more of the gulf could be possibly at risk than previously thought

[LarryWx]

00z CMC has less defined weakness off the se coast isnt as defined as it was in precious runs, little more ridging this run, closer to florida , trough/ shortwave is trending east and weaker

Then 0Z CMC gets to H strength off of NC followed by move to just off NE Nova Scotia at 240.

[IcyTundra]

Hard to take the GFS seriously with how inconsistent it has been for this AOI. A lot of time for things to change but I think the Euro has a better handle on how things will play out.