2026 ENSO Updates

[mixedDanilo.E]

NCEP models are all in on a strong MJO in the WPAC. Euro is still weaker.

Do you have graphic(s)?

Long range GEFS and CFS

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/2027531475978010837

[Kingarabian]

 https://x.com/jnmet/status/2027531475978010837

Need the - OLR anomalies further east than that

Waiting for the Euro to get on board for a big WPAC MJO event still.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/akshaydeoras/status/2027809928467935677

[cycloneye]

Few words but may be very important down the road.

 https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/2028081575246577782

[cycloneye]

MJO amplification on phase 7 from ECMWF.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

MJO amplification on phase 7 from ECMWF.

https://i.imgur.com/dA4FlAA.jpeg

I think "amplification" is generous, the ensembles are all over the place and the mean is hovering pretty close to null. Compare to the GEFS which has more members that very clearly show an amplified signal (although the mean itself isn't super impressive). Remains to be seen as to whether or not this is a byproduct of its known WPAC MJO bias though

[Yellow Evan]

EPS extended range has definitely trended upwards towards Pacific westerlies. See https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_ ... 0850%20hPa

[Kingarabian]

Big WPAC WWB on the GFS now. Let's see if it verifies compared to the late December bust.

[cycloneye]

BoM has Niño 3.4 going up to +2.0C by August and has Niño 3 up to +2.7C also by August.

https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/ou ... abs=Graphs

[jconsor]

Scott is an experienced long range forecaster who clearly explains his reasoning. He intimates that the gap between atmospheric impacts of El Nino and the SST anomalies in the ENSO region may be even larger than 2023:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/scott-yu ... 7X02RAnqV4

[jconsor]

My personal take on Scott's LinkedIn post:
One important diference between 2023 and 2026 is that warmest SST anomalies in spring-summer 2023 were well concentrated in the tropics (a rare phenomenon prior to an El Nino, likely related to Hunga Tonga eruption). Meanwhile what we are seeing this year so far is warmest anomalies concentrated in the mid-latitudes (especially NW Pacific and NW Atlantic). No sign from climate models that will change by the time hurricane season is underway.

So while I think the road to good atmospheric coupling will be bumpy and we likely will see WWBs struggle to cross the dateline at times, it's hard for me to imagine the Atlantic would be as favorable as 2023.

Also re: Scott's last sentence about the global SST (anomalies) being twice as high/warm as 2023 (at this point e.g. beginning of Mar). While that is true when averaging global SST anomalies,

1) The global anomalies will have a hard time keeping up with 2023 heading into late spring-early summer, absent any large volcanic eruption trapping water vapor in atmosphere like Hunga Tonga

2) The warmth is less concentrated in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean vs Pacific this year than spring 2023

Scott is an experienced long range forecaster who clearly explains his reasoning. He intimates that the gap between atmospheric impacts of El Nino and the SST anomalies in the ENSO region may be even larger than 2023:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/scott-yu ... 7X02RAnqV4

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2028468392550924638

[cycloneye]

The weekly CPC update of 3/2/26 has niño 3.4 at -0.6C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2028468392550924638

That's more like what you'd expect in a (developing) Niño atmospheric response, especially given how volatile ENSO is this time of year

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/2028484572011229346



 https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/2028490368971387381

[Kingarabian]

Let's see how this evolves.

[Ntxw]

It won't take much to push the thermocline a little more. We aren't at the levels 2015 was, which depressed it much more so but more in line with 2009-2023 look to it, at this early stage. April will likely feature another round to further push the waters.







Surface remaining cool anomalies are shallow and reserved to the west-central basin. Once that gets flushed out, weeklies will steadily climb as warmer waters pinch in from both the west and the east.

[zzzh]

Models are forecasting strong westerlies north of the equator with slightly enhanced trades on the south side. This doesn't look like 1997 or 2015, which they had strong equatorial WWB with a focus on the southern side. It does look very similar to other Nino years though