98L Invest Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[krysof]

not happening right now, and I highly doubt it will become less organized

True... still, I remember that was what lots of people were saying with at first-organized systems (e.g., TD 19) before they became very disorganized. Not saying that will happen, it's just that it reminded me...

I think a special upgrade to tropical depression status may be needed now or at least very soon.

well we all know where TD 19 developed and the ones close to home had good conditions unlike the cape verde season

[jkt21787]

I still think a major hurricane will occur before November 30

Though I never posted one way or the other, I never doubted you on that call given the nature of this season and the favorable conditions that have continued particularly in the Caribbean.

But of course there were MANY who did doubt you and the whole idea of another storm in this season, as seen plenty before this season. Looks like we're headed down the same road again with regards to those calls...

[Brent]

Interesting to note the main convection is now EAST of Jamaica... that could have major implications on the track.

What sort of implications?

Well probably a more north and east track... but it's REALLY REALLY early.

I also want to note that the Caribbean has been largely undisturbed this season... Stan didn't become anything til it got right to the Yucatan. The last storm of any kind was Emily a full THREE months ago. Those waters are hot.

[tracyswfla]

Interesting to note the main convection is now EAST of Jamaica... that could have major implications on the track.

What sort of implications?

Well probably a more north and east track... but it's REALLY REALLY early.

I also want to note that the Caribbean has been largely undisturbed this season... Stan didn't become anything til it got right to the Yucatan. The last storm of any kind was Emily a full THREE months ago. Those waters are hot.

Thanks Brent... I bet you know what I am thinkin'. Starts with a C

[fuzzyblow]

Do the loop and look at the extremely cold cloud tops.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

It's a bit scarry to see that, seem juste an open door to w, wnw with nothing apparent to block up that exploding thing now...

[MiamiensisWx]

Interesting that while the eastern Pacific system (TD 16-E) has less deep convection but has been upgraded, the Caribbean system (INVEST.98L) with somewhat better banding features and deeper convection has not been upgraded. Compare the two systems currently below...

TD 16-E at eastern Pacific...


INVEST.98L in Caribbean...

[skysummit]

Well, there's definately a LLC there...

[CHRISTY]

FROM JOE B.[img]"Florida hurricane threat next week. The system should develop out of overall pattern in the western Caribbean early to mid part of next week, then it will get pulled into the southeast Gulf".[/img]

[quandary]

Disclaimer: The views expressed below are of me and only me and not Storm2k or anyone else.

OK guys, here is a possible track that this storm could take!

It could make a strategic 4-landfalls hit, brushing over Honduras as a Cat 5 killing over 10,000 people, then working its way back up over Cozumel and the Yucatan peninsula, killing hundreds as a Cat 3, then entering the Gulf of Mexico, where it can grow back into a massive, devastating Category 5 storm, performing an unprecedented slam into Tampa Bay, leaving a wave of destruction in its wake. After this, it could continue across Florida, arriving into the Atlantic ocean and making an incredible fourth landfall along the east caost, and then cause endless flooding in the Northeast states.

Here's an image of this scenario, which could make Wilma the Weapon of mass destruction storm of the millennium:

Why post a wishcast like this? It only serves to inaccurately scare people and hype the situation.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Disclaimer: The views expressed below are of me and only me and not Storm2k or anyone else.

OK guys, here is a possible track that this storm could take!

It could make a strategic 4-landfalls hit, brushing over Honduras as a Cat 5 killing over 10,000 people, then working its way back up over Cozumel and the Yucatan peninsula, killing hundreds as a Cat 3, then entering the Gulf of Mexico, where it can grow back into a massive, devastating Category 5 storm, performing an unprecedented slam into Tampa Bay, leaving a wave of destruction in its wake. After this, it could continue across Florida, arriving into the Atlantic ocean and making an incredible fourth landfall along the east caost, and then cause endless flooding in the Northeast states.

Here's an image of this scenario, which could make Wilma the Weapon of mass destruction storm of the millennium:

Why post a wishcast like this? It only serves to inaccurately scare people and hype the situation.

I nearly soiled my pants when I saw that forecast track....

[cat_6]

sorry, didn't mean to scare anyone with the description, but i honestly think a path like that (well, maybe not that extreme) is possible...i mean, the gfdl already shows something going near honduras as a large storm, and if it got caught up with a front it could take a northeasterly turn. we have seen many storms late october that are swept up to west florida, so if it's gonna happen, it could happen around this time.

[MiamiensisWx]

Disclaimer: The views expressed below are of me and only me and not Storm2k or anyone else.

OK guys, here is a possible track that this storm could take!

It could make a strategic 4-landfalls hit, brushing over Honduras as a Cat 5 killing over 10,000 people, then working its way back up over Cozumel and the Yucatan peninsula, killing hundreds as a Cat 3, then entering the Gulf of Mexico, where it can grow back into a massive, devastating Category 5 storm, performing an unprecedented slam into Tampa Bay, leaving a wave of destruction in its wake. After this, it could continue across Florida, arriving into the Atlantic ocean and making an incredible fourth landfall along the east caost, and then cause endless flooding in the Northeast states.

Here's an image of this scenario, which could make Wilma the Weapon of mass destruction storm of the millennium:

Just ignore that post by cat_6. It seems he/she really wants to see death (people killed) and destruction for excitement. Cruel, but sadly typical, notably of some teenagers.

[wxmann_91]

This definately could become a very powerful hurricane if it stays clear of the major land masses. The setup is eerily similar to Mitch.

Notice the location of the anticyclone over Mitch, and the one over 98L right now:

(Mitch 1998)


(today)


Also notice the extratropical cyclone east of Bermuda. Same situation with Mitch. This could help enhance outflow as 98L gets going.

(Mitch 1998)


(today)


Shear is expected to remain low in the western Caribbean for the next 5 days:



All in all, it spells a potentially dangerous storm in the western Caribbean in the next 5 days.

[THead]

Wow, 13 pages in 13 hours on this thread. Just an interesting statistic......I thought........

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow, 13 pages in 13 hours on this thread. Just an interesting statistic......I thought........

13 is an unlucky number...and we are looking at the unlucky
possibility of a powerful system. Freaky.

[mike815]

yeah i posted on this thread first this morn. when someone mentioned something was forming and wow it is impressive

[MiamiensisWx]

It is also October... still, I'm not superstitous. However, good thing you pointed it out.

[MiamiensisWx]

Any conversation on INVEST.98L?

[MiamiensisWx]

Did I kill the conversation?

[vaffie]

Aside from the Florida landfall discussions (which seems most likely considering the time of year however), is anyone on the western Gulf region troubled by the Euro model taking it westnorthwest right through the Yucatan Channel at a fairly fast clip on Day 5? It did a pretty good job with it's southernmost track with Stan in the same general area. I usually like the GFDL but it only just initiated it. Another thing that concerns me about all these southern track models that take it into the southern part of the Yucatan/Honduras is that they are all based on an initialization that has it going southwest right now--which is probably wrong. As a result, when the initialization is corrected to a westerly track, the models will all dutifully move from WSW to WNW in my opinion. Anyway, what do you guys think?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/