Atlantic INVEST 94L

[flashflood]

I see a few outflow boundaries just east of Cozumel, and a MLC South of Cuba. Nothing really special, however it reminds me of areas that persist for a time as this has been, then suddely the parameters come together and something develops.

[Evil Jeremy]

I cant tell. Is it weakening or banding?

[hurricanefloyd5]

im so confused is this thing forming or what?????????

[Evil Jeremy]

were going to have to do what i hate to do the most.

wait till morning.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is a disorganized mess is all I see. Yes a surface trough is centered at near 84.5, which is helping form the convection. I would say the best chance for a surface low is close to 20.5 north/87 west close to land...Again near 24 north/85 west off Florida appears to be a naked LLC. MLC south of Cuba...Otherwise nothing really to be concerned with..

[Evil Jeremy]

quick question a little bit off topic: How do you convert atmosphere pressure to Millibars?

[tailgater]

Surface pressure at the Yucatan Channel buoy 1004 MB falling rapidly.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Looks like a little LLC starting just east of Cozumel.

That is pretty low. Need some concentrated T-storms though

I must say that is pretty low.

That seems to be a little strange that is so low when surrounding areas are much higher, there would had been much stronger winds around that buoy. Lets see if any convection forms around that area in the next few hours.

It looks like a T-storm complex formed right on top of the Buoy and has now colapsed. There's less organization today and IMHO the trough we saw last night has moved inland over the Yucatan and weaken farther. Maybe as it moves NW and comes out in BOC or GOM in a day or 2 but I serious doubt it.

[RattleMan]

quick question a little bit off topic: How do you convert atmosphere pressure to Millibars?

From what I see:

Millibar = Atmospheric pressure (inHg)*33.863881591368846931894807821982

[Aric Dunn]

I am just intrigued by the rapid fall at that buoy.. either its a 3 hour screw up .. over the last three hours the buoy has been reporting 1004 to 1005 millibars.. which was and hr 1/2 fall from 1011 mbs.. i was waiting to see if it was a glitch for that hour.. but subsequent hours have remained about the same.. so the question to ask is what happened.. it was not a normal everyday pressure fall .. that much of one does not happen.. it does not appear to be a LOW that is organized enough to produce such a fall .. so i guess it is a glitch of some sort .. we will have to wait and see.

[Aric Dunn]

this is cool .. here is the New Hwrf model on our system ..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[boca]

Were is that model from? Is it an offshoot of an existing model? My answer is in this thread.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=95449

[Aric Dunn]

Were is that model from? Is it an offshoot of an existing model?

its suppsed to be the replacement for the gfdl.. although they will continue to use the gfdl


HWRF is based off of the WRF model

[boca]

I wonder if its a good model for tropical activity?

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder if its a good model for tropical activity?

thats exactly what it was developed for.. is the tropics.. just like the gfdl...

the HWRF has been in preliminary testing for the past few years... i have seen some of them from last year.. but they are going to use it in there guidance for the first time this year.. the NHC is ..

[boca]

The interesting thing about this model is that they have 94L heading to Cedar Key, FL which I don't agree with I think because of shear it would skim the Florida Keys on its way to the Bahamas if it holds together and its not even a system yet.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Pressure now is rising rapidly 29.76. Malfunction maybe?

[Aric Dunn]

The interesting thing about this model is that they have 94L heading to Cedar Key, FL which I don't agree with I think because of shear it would skim the Florida Keys on its way to the Bahamas if it holds together and its not even a system yet.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Pressure now is rising rapidly 29.76. Malfunction maybe?

yeah just saw that .. it must be a glitch ...

[Aric Dunn]

im pretty sure this system is done for... i cant see any organization at all.. but cant say until its completely gone.. maybe tomorrow i can say good bye

[windstorm99]

Looks like most of this mess unfortunately will stay to the south of miami dade and broward counties.Thunderstorms are still expected as some moisture+shortwave should amount to scattered activity.Overall no signs of organization with 94L.Adrian

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160910
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Thunder44]

The interesting thing about this model is that they have 94L heading to Cedar Key, FL which I don't agree with I think because of shear it would skim the Florida Keys on its way to the Bahamas if it holds together and its not even a system yet.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Pressure now is rising rapidly 29.76. Malfunction maybe?

yeah just saw that .. it must be a glitch ...

I'm suspicious of this buoy pressure readings. It had big drop in pressure the last two nights only to rise back rapidly in the early morning hours:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?stat ... wdpr&uom=E

It doesn't really matter anyway. Most of the thunderstorm activity is now over the Bahamas vicinity and appears to be disorganized. Nothing should develop in NW Carribean anymore.