Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Is the whole island evac'd?

[WindRunner]

Yes, all 200 or so temporary residents were air mailed to Hawaii a couple of days ago.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Oh. I didn't know such a small amount of people lived there.

[bostonseminole]

Oh. I didn't know such a small amount of people lived there.

luckily

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets see if we can get a core pressure on this thing over the next 3 to 6 hours. The next ob should tell alot more about this systems strength.

[bostonseminole]

WTPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 045
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 168.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 168.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.4N 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.2N 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.1N 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.9N 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.5N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.6N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 28.2N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 167.8E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
110 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z

[WindRunner]

No one actually lives there . . . they are contractors, both civilian and military, that work on the island, mainly the airport.

And as for Ioke, her CI numbers are falling. According to CIMSS, they were 6.2 around 23Z and at 01Z now down to 6.1 average and 6.0 raw. I know it's looking worse, but not a weak Cat 4 worse. Then again, the JTWC hasn't been following the ADT#'s at all the past few days, so I don't think that is too much to worry about . . . either way, Wake is going to get destroyed.

[mtm4319]

If it's counted as a Wake landfall, it will be the strongest storm to strike U.S. territory since Andrew.

[mettski]

very little there anyway. got no chance.

[bostonseminole]

btw anyone have any history on wake island hurricane hits? it cannot be the first time..

[tgenius]

very little there anyway. got no chance.

Is that ocean inside the island? I really don't see anything of significance, but I do suspect that the island will be under water if not completely submerged when everything is said and done.

[WindRunner]

btw anyone have any history on wake island hurricane hits? it cannot be the first time..

It was posted either earlier in this thread or somewhere in the first thread if you are interested in searching for it.

[Weather Watcher]

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=1890000%20Wake%20Island,%20U.%20S.%20TRUST%20TERRITORY&type=Meteorological+Observations

Check this out!!!

Steve

[LeeJet]

I heard on the news that a meteorologist voluntarily stayed in some kind of concrete building to meaure the precise winds and pressure. That doesn't have to be done by a person, so I assume he stayed just for the thrill.

[Hurricaneman]

I heard on the news that a meteorologist voluntarily stayed in some kind of concrete building to meaure the precise winds and pressure. That doesn't have to be done by a person, so I assume he stayed just for the thrill.

I would have to say thats someone who has never been through a hurricane

[THead]

I heard on the news that a meteorologist voluntarily stayed in some kind of concrete building to meaure the precise winds and pressure. That doesn't have to be done by a person, so I assume he stayed just for the thrill.

Thrill or death wish?!

[Weather Watcher]

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=1890000%20Wake%20Island,%20U.%20S.%20TRUST%20TERRITORY&type=Meteorological+Observations

Check this out!!!

Steve

This is real time data from NOAA

[WindRunner]

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=1890000%20Wake%20Island,%20U.%20S.%20TRUST%20TERRITORY&type=Meteorological+Observations

Check this out!!!

Steve

This is real time data from NOAA

Well, it's once an hour obs (not quite real time), but that's how that reports. But yeah, I know a lot of us are watching that page.

[LeeJet]

I heard on the news that a meteorologist voluntarily stayed in some kind of concrete building to meaure the precise winds and pressure. That doesn't have to be done by a person, so I assume he stayed just for the thrill.

Thrill or death wish?!

I think it's quite humorous.

[Ptarmigan]

Oh. I didn't know such a small amount of people lived there.

Wake Island is used as an airstrip. Good thing everyone escaped. Hurricane Ioke is producing 50 foot waves.