2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

Someone forget to flip the switch? I was told it was happening soon.

All jokes aside, the Atlantic is really struggling. Instead of 2013 we should probably mention 1992. However, that was the year of Andrew, so it only takes one.

[tolakram]

Someone forget to flip the switch? I was told it was happening soon.

All jokes aside, the Atlantic is really struggling. Instead of 2013 we should probably mention 1992. However, that was the year of Andrew, so it only takes one.

Why are you comparing this season to an el nino year?

[Ntxw]

It's August 10th. The season was radically overhyped, as most of us recognized, and we had a CV wave that should not develop threaten to develop in early August. I don't see anything unusual yet but the clock is ticking. We are nearing peak angst.

I think you hit the nail here, though do understand the method since the past two seasons were very active and with expected (at the time) early in the season conditions that looked similar. It is a good learning point, and I do wonder, if a blanket ENSO set of conditions is good enough to give weight on. We're all learning pretty well throughout the many seasons El Nino does not mean dead Atlantic and La Nina doesn't mean prolific activity. There's a spectrum of enso events and analogs can provide a good starting point but the weakness here is sample size.

[SFLcane]

CFS still has a season. With the VP200 look + low shear + dangerous ridging.

[NotSparta]

Someone forget to flip the switch? I was told it was happening soon.

All jokes aside, the Atlantic is really struggling. Instead of 2013 we should probably mention 1992. However, that was the year of Andrew, so it only takes one.

Why are you comparing this season to an el nino year?

Neither 1992 or 2013 were El Nino years. Both cool neutral. I'm confused

[InfernoFlameCat]

I don’t think this season was overhyped. It’s going to be deadly. While conditions aren’t favorable now, they will be soon. Also, anything that goes over the GOM is going to go bonkers. Shear will stay low there and SSTs are hot.

[cycloneye]

The ITCZ is slightly more north this year and that could be the issue? The waves emerge more north and are not able to break out of the dry air that turns worse by the cold pool in the subtropics dumping dry air south.

[tolakram]

Someone forget to flip the switch? I was told it was happening soon.

All jokes aside, the Atlantic is really struggling. Instead of 2013 we should probably mention 1992. However, that was the year of Andrew, so it only takes one.

Why are you comparing this season to an el nino year?

Neither 1992 or 2013 were El Nino years. Both cool neutral. I'm confused

1992 started as el nino the cold tongue developed which was thought to end the el nino, and then warmed again. I did not mention 2013. Regardless, I don't think this year resembles 92 at all and I'm still not sure why it was mentioned.

[BobHarlem]

Season is a bit behind this year, 2.8 ace right now, it was at 13.2 at this point last year, and average is around 12.3. But the comments about anything that does get going having a lot of fuel is definitely true.

[skyline385]

I don’t think this season was overhyped. It’s going to be deadly. While conditions aren’t favorable now, they will be soon. Also, anything that goes over the GOM is going to go bonkers. Shear will stay low there and SSTs are hot.

The Gulf and Caribbean are actually currently normal to below normal SST. The Gulf was blazing hot in June but then the warming slowed down and now the SST are near normal.


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[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1557384629790932993

[InfernoFlameCat]

I don’t think this season was overhyped. It’s going to be deadly. While conditions aren’t favorable now, they will be soon. Also, anything that goes over the GOM is going to go bonkers. Shear will stay low there and SSTs are hot.

The Gulf and Caribbean are actually currently normal to below normal SST. The Gulf was blazing hot in June but then the warming slowed down and now the SST are near normal.


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They are normal but still hot. Also OHC is running above average. Whatever the case, I just want something to track in the Atlantic.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Someone forget to flip the switch? I was told it was happening soon.

All jokes aside, the Atlantic is really struggling. Instead of 2013 we should probably mention 1992. However, that was the year of Andrew, so it only takes one.

This seems a bit premature. This may sound surprising but early August isn't all that active in most years. It usually takes until the third week or so for things to pick up. Again Dr. William Gray of CSU used to have a bell he would ring on the 20th to signal the true start of the climatological peak of the season - we are still 10 days away from that. If models aren't showing anything by then then I would start to express modest concern, but we still have over a week until then. We've seen this situation play out before where models show little to nothing for a while before the operationals and their respective ensemble members start popping off, and that could very well be the case this year. We'll just have to wait and see.

[ThomasW]

Someone forget to flip the switch? I was told it was happening soon.

All jokes aside, the Atlantic is really struggling. Instead of 2013 we should probably mention 1992. However, that was the year of Andrew, so it only takes one.

You know the season's about to underperform hard when people move on to "it only takes one"
That being said, looks like NATL will get lucky this year and escape with a below-average season. Wavebreaking continuing to stifle the MDR with a near-constant pump of dry air and shear, all through 384 hours...not a favorable look. Might see a few "homebrew" type storms. Maybe an Ida type thing. Idk though if the "switchflip" keeps being pushed back in time. At this rate we'll be talking about it in October, just like in 2013.

[LarryWx]

Third year La Niña climo ftw? Of the 8 analogs, none has had an ACE higher than 135 and that includes the 119 of 2000, which is as good an analog as any to me. Also, July SSTA maps for 2000 and 2022 are fairly similar.

Regardless, until we have a better handle on the next 10 days, the door is still wide open to an active (though not hyper imho) season. When I say active, I mean ACE in the general vicinity of 120 and maybe as high as 140ish. We could easily end up with an eastern MDR storm around August 20th (which could end up a dangerous storm that gets far west in the basin per the progged setup as well as history) along with more storms soon afterward. But if we were to get to August 20th with still no new TCs as well as then looking very quiet on models, then a quiet season becomes a significantly higher possibility. It would be amazing if it were to happen in La Niña during this active era! It is fun to see the experts stumped as unpredictability is what keeps long range weather forecasting interesting and a challenge. Keep in mind that only three seasons since 1995 have had fewer than 3 August NS and two of them were El Niño. Thus, I'm still going with 3 NS this month.

[Steve]

I don’t think this season was overhyped. It’s going to be deadly. While conditions aren’t favorable now, they will be soon. Also, anything that goes over the GOM is going to go bonkers. Shear will stay low there and SSTs are hot.

The Gulf and Caribbean are actually currently normal to below normal SST. The Gulf was blazing hot in June but then the warming slowed down and now the SST are near normal.


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It's rained here pretty much every day multiple times for weeks. Gulf will cool in that scenario vs. high pressure. Agree that it's still hot enough to supply energy, but it may not be extreme as it could have been.

[Steve]

Someone forget to flip the switch? I was told it was happening soon.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

[LarryWx]

Someone forget to flip the switch? I was told it was happening soon.

All jokes aside, the Atlantic is really struggling. Instead of 2013 we should probably mention 1992. However, that was the year of Andrew, so it only takes one.

This seems a bit premature. This may sound surprising but early August isn't all that active in most years. It usually takes until the third week or so for things to pick up. Again Dr. William Gray of CSU used to have a bell he would ring on the 20th to signal the true start of the climatological peak of the season - we are still 10 days away from that. If models aren't showing anything by then then I would start to express modest concern, but we still have over a week until then. We've seen this situation play out before where models show little to nothing for a while before the operationals and their respective ensemble members start popping off, and that could very well be the case this year. We'll just have to wait and see.

Although the writing is on the wall and the chances for hyper are steadily dropping (I never expected hyper), I agree it is still too early to say with confidence it will end up quiet. Keep in mind that the very active seasons of 1996, 1998, and 1999 (ACE 166-182) didn't have their first August NS til the 18th or 19th. Actually, 1998 and 1999 both had only their 2nd NS 8/18-19 whereas 2022 has already had three. Not that I would mind a quiet season since the last thing I want is a hurricane threatening to totally disrupt my family and myself, but it is imho too early to make that call.

[MHC Tracking]

Someone forget to flip the switch? I was told it was happening soon.

All jokes aside, the Atlantic is really struggling. Instead of 2013 we should probably mention 1992. However, that was the year of Andrew, so it only takes one.

You know the season's about to underperform hard when people move on to "it only takes one"
That being said, looks like NATL will get lucky this year and escape with a below-average season. Wavebreaking continuing to stifle the MDR with a near-constant pump of dry air and shear, all through 384 hours...not a favorable look. Might see a few "homebrew" type storms. Maybe an Ida type thing. Idk though if the "switchflip" keeps being pushed back in time. At this rate we'll be talking about it in October, just like in 2013.

Model output in the long-range concerning dry air and shear is just as unreliable as it is concerning long-range TC signals...not sure why you're taking it as gospel

[zzh]

https://i.imgur.com/VbkvcJe.png
https://i.imgur.com/iXdpaRw.gif
Warmer western subtropics is taking away instability from tropics while a cooler eastern subtropics/Canary Current is transporting dry air into the tropics, decreasing the instability there.

How is that first map derived? Seems to conflict with the NOAA map

https://i.imgur.com/Lkhyd7q.png

One is OISST, using 91-20 climo
One is Coral Reef Watch, using 85-93 climo
Of course there is a conflict lol