2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1427652202605289477

[AlphaToOmega]

Conditions will be favorable in the Atlantic for the rest of August.

[WiscoWx02]

I know what we seeing now isn't going to be reflected entirely through the peak of the season, but what we have out there right now really suggests that we have another west based peak season ahead of us if you ask me.

[Chris90]

It would really be something if 2 days from now we have dual major hurricanes with Grace and Henri to bring in the August 20th bell ringing.

I do think storms might start finding conditions to help them get classified further east in a couple weeks when we really start getting into the CV season. It’s going to be interesting to watch how the MJO behaves and if it amplifies Africa and the Indian Ocean as much as some modeling has seemed to indicate.

There is really high potential in the west and the subtropics though. Those MPI maps show Cat 5 potential up to 35-40N in some areas. I’m very curious to see just how strong Henri gets.

[tolakram]

Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.

[Woofde]

Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.

I think its safe the say that the switch has been flicked.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.

https://i.imgur.com/iLX2Ofr.gif

I think its safe the say that the switch has been flicked.

Active season for sure so far.

[AutoPenalti]

Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.

https://i.imgur.com/iLX2Ofr.gif

Ah yes, the very definition of season cancelled.

[Category5Kaiju]

Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.

https://i.imgur.com/iLX2Ofr.gif

Ah yes, the very definition of season cancelled.

With the season about to have its third hurricane before August 20, I think it’s safe to say that we can safely discard any thoughts of this year being another 2013. As always, the 2013 analogies have busted terribly.

[AlphaToOmega]

I think it is reasonable to say that another 3 storms could form in August. We are in favorable MJO pulse, and the August 20 bell is about to ring. People in hurricane-prone areas should have been prepared!

[Steve]

I think it is reasonable to say that another 3 storms could form in August. We are in favorable MJO pulse, and the August 20 bell is about to ring. People in hurricane-prone areas should have been prepared!

MJO should track through 3 and maybe the edge of 4/the circle the next several days. But IDK after that. Some models want to go to 5/6 which would indicate at least reduced amount of systems it not a cap. A couple others like the circle which could mean another run thru 8-1-2-3. How this plays out after ten days or so will tell us how active early September is going to be or whether there could be a relative break before the next burst.

[MarioProtVI]

Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.

https://i.imgur.com/iLX2Ofr.gif

Ah yes, the very definition of season cancelled.

With the season about to have its third hurricane before August 20, I think it’s safe to say that we can safely discard any thoughts of this year being another 2013. As always, the 2013 analogies have busted terribly.

A 2013 repeat isn’t avoided until we get that first C2 of which it had none

[AlphaToOmega]

The GEFS and ECENS ensembles are suggesting Cape Verde development around August 22 and August 25. For some reason, the GEFS ensemble wants Central American Gyre development near the end of August.
This is clear evidence that the models are detecting favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis.

[aspen]

Ah yes, the very definition of season cancelled.

With the season about to have its third hurricane before August 20, I think it’s safe to say that we can safely discard any thoughts of this year being another 2013. As always, the 2013 analogies have busted terribly.

A 2013 repeat isn’t avoided until we get that first C2 of which it had none

We’ll likely get at least one between tomorrow and Saturday when Grace and Henri begin intensifying again. Both have the opportunity to become majors, although now I’m thinking Henri has the better shot.

[Category5Kaiju]

With the season about to have its third hurricane before August 20, I think it’s safe to say that we can safely discard any thoughts of this year being another 2013. As always, the 2013 analogies have busted terribly.

A 2013 repeat isn’t avoided until we get that first C2 of which it had none

We’ll likely get at least one between tomorrow and Saturday when Grace and Henri begin intensifying again. Both have the opportunity to become majors, although now I’m thinking Henri has the better shot.

Yeah, considering we have had some pretty strong subtropical storms in recent years (Dorian, Epsilon, and Florence as examples), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henri overperform once the shear abates

[SconnieCane]

A 2013 repeat isn’t avoided until we get that first C2 of which it had none

We’ll likely get at least one between tomorrow and Saturday when Grace and Henri begin intensifying again. Both have the opportunity to become majors, although now I’m thinking Henri has the better shot.

Yeah, considering we have had some pretty strong subtropical storms in recent years (Dorian, Epsilon, and Florence as examples), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henri overperform once the shear abates

Nothing "subtropical" about them in terms of structure. They did however either become or remain intense tropical cyclones (major hurricanes) at subtropical latitudes.

[Category5Kaiju]

We’ll likely get at least one between tomorrow and Saturday when Grace and Henri begin intensifying again. Both have the opportunity to become majors, although now I’m thinking Henri has the better shot.

Yeah, considering we have had some pretty strong subtropical storms in recent years (Dorian, Epsilon, and Florence as examples), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henri overperform once the shear abates

Nothing "subtropical" about them in terms of structure. They did however either become or remain intense tropical cyclones (major hurricanes) at subtropical latitudes.

Yeah, sorry about my wording, I meant strong tropical storms in the subtropics.

[tolakram]

What Africa looks like on August 19th.

[Stormybajan]

What Africa looks like on August 19th.

https://i.imgur.com/JKYNCto.png

Eh, Nothing special about it right now.. especially with all that dust around. I expect it to change in about a week from now when most of that dust should be gone. That August 20th- September 30th timeframe starts tomorrow, time to see what the Atlantic has got to offer for peak season

[AlphaToOmega]

The August 20 bell rings tomorrow! Be prepared