2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images



Conditions will be favorable in the Atlantic for the rest of August.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

I know what we seeing now isn't going to be reflected entirely through the peak of the season, but what we have out there right now really suggests that we have another west based peak season ahead of us if you ask me.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
It would really be something if 2 days from now we have dual major hurricanes with Grace and Henri to bring in the August 20th bell ringing.
I do think storms might start finding conditions to help them get classified further east in a couple weeks when we really start getting into the CV season. It’s going to be interesting to watch how the MJO behaves and if it amplifies Africa and the Indian Ocean as much as some modeling has seemed to indicate.
There is really high potential in the west and the subtropics though. Those MPI maps show Cat 5 potential up to 35-40N in some areas. I’m very curious to see just how strong Henri gets.
I do think storms might start finding conditions to help them get classified further east in a couple weeks when we really start getting into the CV season. It’s going to be interesting to watch how the MJO behaves and if it amplifies Africa and the Indian Ocean as much as some modeling has seemed to indicate.
There is really high potential in the west and the subtropics though. Those MPI maps show Cat 5 potential up to 35-40N in some areas. I’m very curious to see just how strong Henri gets.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.


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Re: RE: Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
I think its safe the say that the switch has been flicked.tolakram wrote:Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.

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Re: RE: Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Woofde wrote:I think its safe the say that the switch has been flicked.tolakram wrote:Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.
https://i.imgur.com/iLX2Ofr.gif
Active season for sure so far.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
tolakram wrote:Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.
https://i.imgur.com/iLX2Ofr.gif
Ah yes, the very definition of season cancelled.
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GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
AutoPenalti wrote:tolakram wrote:Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.
https://i.imgur.com/iLX2Ofr.gif
Ah yes, the very definition of season cancelled.
With the season about to have its third hurricane before August 20, I think it’s safe to say that we can safely discard any thoughts of this year being another 2013. As always, the 2013 analogies have busted terribly.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
I think it is reasonable to say that another 3 storms could form in August. We are in favorable MJO pulse, and the August 20 bell is about to ring. People in hurricane-prone areas should have been prepared!
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
AlphaToOmega wrote:I think it is reasonable to say that another 3 storms could form in August. We are in favorable MJO pulse, and the August 20 bell is about to ring. People in hurricane-prone areas should have been prepared!
MJO should track through 3 and maybe the edge of 4/the circle the next several days. But IDK after that. Some models want to go to 5/6 which would indicate at least reduced amount of systems it not a cap. A couple others like the circle which could mean another run thru 8-1-2-3. How this plays out after ten days or so will tell us how active early September is going to be or whether there could be a relative break before the next burst.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Category5Kaiju wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:tolakram wrote:Aug 18th sat loop. Fred remnants, Henri, and Grace at the bottom.
https://i.imgur.com/iLX2Ofr.gif
Ah yes, the very definition of season cancelled.
With the season about to have its third hurricane before August 20, I think it’s safe to say that we can safely discard any thoughts of this year being another 2013. As always, the 2013 analogies have busted terribly.
A 2013 repeat isn’t avoided until we get that first C2

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
The GEFS and ECENS ensembles are suggesting Cape Verde development around August 22 and August 25. For some reason, the GEFS ensemble wants Central American Gyre development near the end of August.
This is clear evidence that the models are detecting favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis.
This is clear evidence that the models are detecting favorable conditions for tropical cyclogenesis.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
MarioProtVI wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Ah yes, the very definition of season cancelled.
With the season about to have its third hurricane before August 20, I think it’s safe to say that we can safely discard any thoughts of this year being another 2013. As always, the 2013 analogies have busted terribly.
A 2013 repeat isn’t avoided until we get that first C2of which it had none
We’ll likely get at least one between tomorrow and Saturday when Grace and Henri begin intensifying again. Both have the opportunity to become majors, although now I’m thinking Henri has the better shot.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
aspen wrote:MarioProtVI wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:
With the season about to have its third hurricane before August 20, I think it’s safe to say that we can safely discard any thoughts of this year being another 2013. As always, the 2013 analogies have busted terribly.
A 2013 repeat isn’t avoided until we get that first C2of which it had none
We’ll likely get at least one between tomorrow and Saturday when Grace and Henri begin intensifying again. Both have the opportunity to become majors, although now I’m thinking Henri has the better shot.
Yeah, considering we have had some pretty strong subtropical storms in recent years (Dorian, Epsilon, and Florence as examples), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henri overperform once the shear abates
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Category5Kaiju wrote:aspen wrote:MarioProtVI wrote:A 2013 repeat isn’t avoided until we get that first C2of which it had none
We’ll likely get at least one between tomorrow and Saturday when Grace and Henri begin intensifying again. Both have the opportunity to become majors, although now I’m thinking Henri has the better shot.
Yeah, considering we have had some pretty strong subtropical storms in recent years (Dorian, Epsilon, and Florence as examples), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henri overperform once the shear abates
Nothing "subtropical" about them in terms of structure. They did however either become or remain intense tropical cyclones (major hurricanes) at subtropical latitudes.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
SconnieCane wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:aspen wrote:We’ll likely get at least one between tomorrow and Saturday when Grace and Henri begin intensifying again. Both have the opportunity to become majors, although now I’m thinking Henri has the better shot.
Yeah, considering we have had some pretty strong subtropical storms in recent years (Dorian, Epsilon, and Florence as examples), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henri overperform once the shear abates
Nothing "subtropical" about them in terms of structure. They did however either become or remain intense tropical cyclones (major hurricanes) at subtropical latitudes.
Yeah, sorry about my wording, I meant strong tropical storms in the subtropics.
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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
What Africa looks like on August 19th.


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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
Eh, Nothing special about it right now.. especially with all that dust around. I expect it to change in about a week from now when most of that dust should be gone. That August 20th- September 30th timeframe starts tomorrow, time to see what the Atlantic has got to offer for peak season

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Re: 2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images
The August 20 bell rings tomorrow! Be prepared
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