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[mtm4319]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not basing this on any kind of scientific reasoning, but I'd say something around 17/9/5.

Tropical Storm
Hurricane
Major Hurricane

===============

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael

Florence and Isaac will reach Cat 4 intensity, but no Cat 5s in 2006. Isaac and Oscar will be retired.



Landfalls: Alberto (Mexico), Beryl (North Carolina), Debby (Lesser Antilles/Canadian maritimes), Ernesto (NW Florida), Helene (Lesser Antilles, Yucatan/Belize), Isaac (South Texas), Leslie (Bahamas), Michael (Hispaniola, Bahamas, South Carolina), Oscar (west coast of Florida), Patty (Cuba/Bahamas)

LOL, I got a little carried away. I'm sure I won't be anything close to the actual season, but making up tracks like these is fun for me.

[Brent]

Bored mtm4319?

I admit I make up fake hurricane tracks too... but one at the time.

[Ivanhater]

well ill be watching "michael" next year...thats my name...it could be a bad one

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like Michael would be retired too.

[sponger]

I think the lack of a cape verde season may have contributed to the high numbers (record) number of hurricanes. All heat distribution in the Atlantic was confined to the west and Gulf. I would expect a more 2004 type season so lower numbers but with a few nasty majors. We are early in this cycle so unless el nino raises its head, hold on for another exciting or terrifying year.

[wxcrazytwo]

Does it really matter? We will still get threads next year about the season being dead or lack thereof.

[Brent]

I think the lack of a cape verde season may have contributed to the high numbers (record) number of hurricanes. All heat distribution in the Atlantic was confined to the west and Gulf. I would expect a more 2004 type season so lower numbers but with a few nasty majors. We are early in this cycle so unless el nino raises its head, hold on for another exciting or terrifying year.

Yeah... I'm thinking similar to 2004 with 1-3 major CV storms making it to the U.S./Mexico. I think one will be a Carolina problem though.

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not basing this on any kind of scientific reasoning, but I'd say something around 17/9/5.

Tropical Storm
Hurricane
Major Hurricane

===============

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael

Florence and Isaac will reach Cat 4 intensity, but no Cat 5s in 2006. Isaac and Oscar will be retired.



Landfalls: Alberto (Mexico), Beryl (North Carolina), Debby (Lesser Antilles/Canadian maritimes), Ernesto (NW Florida), Helene (Lesser Antilles, Yucatan/Belize), Isaac (South Texas), Leslie (Bahamas), Michael (Hispaniola, Bahamas, South Carolina), Oscar (west coast of Florida), Patty (Cuba/Bahamas)

LOL, I got a little carried away. I'm sure I won't be anything close to the actual season, but making up tracks like these is fun for me.

And none hit Mobile, AL where you live in your thoughts? You just gained my respect.

[Brent]

And none hit Mobile, AL where you live in your thoughts? You just gained my respect.

Mine too.

[Ivanhater]

YAY! you leave the north central gulfcoast alone!

[Brent]

Initial thoughts:

17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes

Alberto-Early season rainmaker for Texas
Beryl-Tropical Storm for Mexico
Chris-Caribbean/Southern Gulf of Mexico Major Hurricane(forms east of the Lesser Antilles around 40-45 W), Northeastern Yucatan/Yucatan Channel/South Texas
Debby-Forms near the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hurricane for North Carolina
Ernesto-Forms in the Western Caribbean, crosses Western Cuba, hits Florida Panhandle as a Category 1 hurricane
Florence-CV major hurricane, but a fish
Gordon-Forms in the Southeastern Caribbean, Hurricane for Jamaica, Cuba, the Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
Helene-Tropical Storm into Mexico
Isaac-The one that sounds like it'll be the big one. CV major hurricane(at least a Cat 4 somewhere), Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Northern Hispanola, the Southeastern and Central Bahamas, South Florida, the Florida Keys, then Louisiana
Joyce-CV hurricane, fish
Kirk-Tropical Storm that brushes Bermuda
Lesile-Tropical Storm for Central America
Michael-Major Hurricane that first forms in the Central Caribbean, Belize/Southern Yucatan
Nadine-Tropical Storm over the Open Atlantic east of Bermuda and west of the Azores
Oscar-Forms in the Western Caribbean, Major Hurricane for Cuba, Hurricane for the Bahamas, brushes Southeast Florida, Bermuda, and then out to sea
Patty-Hurricane for Central America
Rafael-Late season tropical storm for Hispanola/Turks and Caicos and then out to sea

Now let's see how close to right this really is...

[Ivanhater]

i love these forecasts....ill do mine when i have time to think about it...it will be neat to look back on them after 2006

[fasterdisaster]

lol...by November next year, we'll probably dig this thread up and compare the season and our forecast.

[f5]

its alot like winning the lottery the person with the closest numbers gets all the cash

[Downdraft]

Right now who really cares what 2006 will bring? A lot of people haven't even got homes to celebrate Thanksgiving in or are crying because their kids won't have a Christmas. You want to think about something than think about how we can help those devastated by this year and not what next year will bring.

[x-y-no]

Given how badly I busted last spring's prediction (12/8/5 IIRC) I don't think I have the chutzpah to offer a 2006 prediction now. At least let's wait until we have some idea of what ENSO will be doing.