2 0 0 6

[Seele]

I believe the long range models are pointing towards an El-Nino next year which would suggest a far less active year. That said the accuracy of long range models in predicting ENSO is poor to horrible. If I remember right, before this season, the models predicted an El-Nino developing in the late summer, which didn't happen.

[fasterdisaster]

They predict an ENSO every year since 2001. In 2002 there was one, and 2004, there was one but very wimpy and didn't affect the tropics. Besides, the models I've seen go through the end of May and say NO ENSO. Ugh.

[Scorpion]

Not as bad as 2005, but worse than 2004. 18/10/6.

[MGC]

I'm still living the horror of 2005 and it's not over yet. Yet another day of cleaning up Katrina debris....will it ever end? I'll likely still be fixing my house in Diamondhead by the start of the 2006 season, I don't want to think about that now......MGC

[gilbert88]

It will likely be the second worst after 2005. I think we'll go all the way to letter S (again) with at least one Cat. 5 around September. Very active Cape Verde season... and I think for unexplainable reasons that Florida will be the one to get the nasty storms next year.

[EDR1222]

It will be interesting to see if there will be a return of the strong Bermuda High that was in place during 2004 and a return to more Cape Verde Systems after the strange year we have had this year.

[NCHurricane]

It will be interesting to see if there will be a return of the strong Bermuda High that was in place during 2004 and a return to more Cape Verde Systems after the strange year we have had this year.

Yeah, I hate to think what kind of numbers 2005 would've had if the Cape Verde season was a normal one. Then again, the lack of a CV season may have caused the focus to shift further west, so if the CV season was more active maybe we wouldn't have had as many homegrowns develop. Or maybe it would've been the same in addition to the CV season.

Man, I have a headache now.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[WxGuy1]

Then again, the lack of a CV season may have caused the focus to shift further west, so if the CV season was more active maybe we wouldn't have had as many homegrowns develop. Or maybe it would've been the same in addition to the CV season.

Man, I have a headache now.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

Interesting thought. I think that if some waves had developed off the Cape Verde's, or in the eastern Atlantic, they probably would have had less action farther west and in the Caribbean. Strong tropical storms and hurricanes are influenced by deep-layer flow, which tends to be less consistently from the east than the surface winds. Many shortwave troughs may lead to a break in a mid-upper level ridge, though there may not be much of a surface reflection (in other words, low-level flow will continue to be easterly). Given that tropical waves are usually more shallow, the lack of development into a deeper system likely meant that more tropical waves were able to reach the Antilles than would have been the case had some of the waves developed into tropical cyclones in the eastern Atlantic. There are more opportunities for deep systems, typically, to gain latitude in the Atlantic, which is often why many hurricanes that form in the eastern or central Atlantic tend to recurve back out to sea (not all do obviously!).

For example... I do think if TD10 had developed into a tropical cyclone as was progged, I don't think New Orleans would have been devastated. The 5-day track forecasts for TD10 look like the cyclone would have been considerably north of where Katrina developed. Well, if TD10 had developed as was expected, it actually may have been Jose, but the point is the same.

[mtm4319]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not basing this on any kind of scientific reasoning, but I'd say something around 17/9/5.

Tropical Storm
Hurricane
Major Hurricane

===============

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael

Florence and Isaac will reach Cat 4 intensity, but no Cat 5s in 2006. Isaac and Oscar will be retired.



Landfalls: Alberto (Mexico), Beryl (North Carolina), Debby (Lesser Antilles/Canadian maritimes), Ernesto (NW Florida), Helene (Lesser Antilles, Yucatan/Belize), Isaac (South Texas), Leslie (Bahamas), Michael (Hispaniola, Bahamas, South Carolina), Oscar (west coast of Florida), Patty (Cuba/Bahamas)

LOL, I got a little carried away. I'm sure I won't be anything close to the actual season, but making up tracks like these is fun for me.

[Brent]

Bored mtm4319?

I admit I make up fake hurricane tracks too... but one at the time.

[Ivanhater]

well ill be watching "michael" next year...thats my name...it could be a bad one

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like Michael would be retired too.

[sponger]

I think the lack of a cape verde season may have contributed to the high numbers (record) number of hurricanes. All heat distribution in the Atlantic was confined to the west and Gulf. I would expect a more 2004 type season so lower numbers but with a few nasty majors. We are early in this cycle so unless el nino raises its head, hold on for another exciting or terrifying year.

[wxcrazytwo]

Does it really matter? We will still get threads next year about the season being dead or lack thereof.

[Brent]

I think the lack of a cape verde season may have contributed to the high numbers (record) number of hurricanes. All heat distribution in the Atlantic was confined to the west and Gulf. I would expect a more 2004 type season so lower numbers but with a few nasty majors. We are early in this cycle so unless el nino raises its head, hold on for another exciting or terrifying year.

Yeah... I'm thinking similar to 2004 with 1-3 major CV storms making it to the U.S./Mexico. I think one will be a Carolina problem though.

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not basing this on any kind of scientific reasoning, but I'd say something around 17/9/5.

Tropical Storm
Hurricane
Major Hurricane

===============

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael

Florence and Isaac will reach Cat 4 intensity, but no Cat 5s in 2006. Isaac and Oscar will be retired.



Landfalls: Alberto (Mexico), Beryl (North Carolina), Debby (Lesser Antilles/Canadian maritimes), Ernesto (NW Florida), Helene (Lesser Antilles, Yucatan/Belize), Isaac (South Texas), Leslie (Bahamas), Michael (Hispaniola, Bahamas, South Carolina), Oscar (west coast of Florida), Patty (Cuba/Bahamas)

LOL, I got a little carried away. I'm sure I won't be anything close to the actual season, but making up tracks like these is fun for me.

And none hit Mobile, AL where you live in your thoughts? You just gained my respect.

[Brent]

And none hit Mobile, AL where you live in your thoughts? You just gained my respect.

Mine too.

[Ivanhater]

YAY! you leave the north central gulfcoast alone!

[Brent]

Initial thoughts:

17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes

Alberto-Early season rainmaker for Texas
Beryl-Tropical Storm for Mexico
Chris-Caribbean/Southern Gulf of Mexico Major Hurricane(forms east of the Lesser Antilles around 40-45 W), Northeastern Yucatan/Yucatan Channel/South Texas
Debby-Forms near the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hurricane for North Carolina
Ernesto-Forms in the Western Caribbean, crosses Western Cuba, hits Florida Panhandle as a Category 1 hurricane
Florence-CV major hurricane, but a fish
Gordon-Forms in the Southeastern Caribbean, Hurricane for Jamaica, Cuba, the Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
Helene-Tropical Storm into Mexico
Isaac-The one that sounds like it'll be the big one. CV major hurricane(at least a Cat 4 somewhere), Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Northern Hispanola, the Southeastern and Central Bahamas, South Florida, the Florida Keys, then Louisiana
Joyce-CV hurricane, fish
Kirk-Tropical Storm that brushes Bermuda
Lesile-Tropical Storm for Central America
Michael-Major Hurricane that first forms in the Central Caribbean, Belize/Southern Yucatan
Nadine-Tropical Storm over the Open Atlantic east of Bermuda and west of the Azores
Oscar-Forms in the Western Caribbean, Major Hurricane for Cuba, Hurricane for the Bahamas, brushes Southeast Florida, Bermuda, and then out to sea
Patty-Hurricane for Central America
Rafael-Late season tropical storm for Hispanola/Turks and Caicos and then out to sea

Now let's see how close to right this really is...

[Ivanhater]

i love these forecasts....ill do mine when i have time to think about it...it will be neat to look back on them after 2006