Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

#302 Postby **drezee** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:36 am

596
URNT11 KNHC 281133
97779 11034 20198 75508 15000 26019 20168 /2489
RMK AF304 0905A ERNESTO OB 34
MARKED ABEAM LANDFALLING CENTER

kenl01 · #303 Postby **kenl01** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:38 am

Right now I would't worry about Ernesto too much. I'd keep a watchful eye on it in Florida, but it does look like a much weaker cyclone as it moves into Florida than originally expected. With land interaction over Cuba and the current 50mph strength, it appears most likely this system should be no more than a cat 1 in South Florida, even if some re-strengthening does happen over the open waters north of Cuba. A heavy rain maker is the best bet at this point.........

My dad has a rental property in Lady Lake and is very happy with the latest news. :wink:

stormernie · #304 Postby **stormernie** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:40 am

Wilma and Katrina were Cat 1 in Florida, it was not pretty.

#305 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:41 am

Now are they for sure now? AFM said to wait till Monday to see what happens. Will this is Monday. I wish he would come back. I miss reading his posts.

cpdaman · #306 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:43 am

is there any reason the steering pattern will get this to get to 80 West longitude

it seems to me this is going more north and right every update and it is at least a signifigant probability this could be a FISH for the U.S

Thatsmrhurricane · #307 Postby **Thatsmrhurricane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:44 am

Anyone notice the Ernesto is starting to wrap moisture around his N side? Will he continue to do this as he gains lat. and moves away from Haiti?

cpdaman · #308 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:47 am

wilma was not CAT 1 it was a solid cat 2 for most of S FL anyway

#309 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:47 am

He is 10 miles from Cuba. That is going to put a hurtting on him

Normandy · #310 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:48 am

cpdaman wrote:wilma was not CAT 1 it was a solid cat 2 for most of S FL anyway

Miami only recorded Cat 1 winds.

#311 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:48 am

Morning everybody.. I went to sleep about 330ish in the morning. I see Ernesto has gotten his act together, and the watches are issued. I am not very cool with the last line in stewart's 5am disco:
JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

That is NOT what I wanted to read this morning, however since he basically skirted Cuba, it is to be expected.

#312 Postby **Windtalker1** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:50 am

They were just talking live to the Hurricane center on channel 4 Miami and they said the models have come to an agreement that this will be a S Florida Storm. They went on to say that the aircraft measured the enviroment around Ernesto last night and they feed this info into the computer. They said the models should not trend anymore east.

#313 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:50 am

http://cbs4.com/ i dont remember Broward being under a hurricane watch! is this true?

#314 Postby **Windtalker1** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:52 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:http://cbs4.com/ i dont remember Broward being under a hurricane watch! is this true?

Yes they are since 5AM

Thatsmrhurricane · #315 Postby **Thatsmrhurricane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:52 am

Yes and Good Morning.

gtalum · #316 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:53 am

This is insane. The forecast changed from the western Gulf all the way to Miami in just 2 days or so. Wow. Ernie has really thrown us all for a loop!

kenl01 · #317 Postby **kenl01** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:53 am

I'm looking forward to this system - we could use more rain !

Good !

Patrick99 · #318 Postby **Patrick99** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:54 am

tgenius wrote:Morning everybody.. I went to sleep about 330ish in the morning. I see Ernesto has gotten his act together, and the watches are issued. I am not very cool with the last line in stewart's 5am disco:
JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

That is NOT what I wanted to read this morning, however since he basically skirted Cuba, it is to be expected.

Are you kidding? I just don't see how that's possible right now, given the satellite appearance. I know the Straits can ramp a hurricane up quickly, but that's assuming it still has some form after Cuba....

Vandora · #319 Postby **Vandora** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:54 am

Channel 10 (watching the livestream, thank goodness for the internet since we have no TV anymore), Knabb was on and said much of what Windtalker said. That he feels this is a S. FL storm, the models shouldn't shift anymore much, and that they are unsure of intensity.

Normandy · #320 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:55 am

Patrick99 wrote:
tgenius wrote:Morning everybody.. I went to sleep about 330ish in the morning. I see Ernesto has gotten his act together, and the watches are issued. I am not very cool with the last line in stewart's 5am disco:
JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

That is NOT what I wanted to read this morning, however since he basically skirted Cuba, it is to be expected.

Are you kidding? I just don't see how that's possible right now, given the satellite appearance. I know the Straits can ramp a hurricane up quickly, but that's assuming it still has some form after Cuba....

If it keeps up, Ernesto MIGHT not see much of Cuba.

The fact that he is making landfall THIS early on Cuba is astounding

Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

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