Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#301 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:36 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

#302 Postby drezee » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:36 am

596
URNT11 KNHC 281133
97779 11034 20198 75508 15000 26019 20168 /2489
RMK AF304 0905A ERNESTO OB 34
MARKED ABEAM LANDFALLING CENTER
0 likes   

kenl01
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:35 am

#303 Postby kenl01 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:38 am

Right now I would't worry about Ernesto too much. I'd keep a watchful eye on it in Florida, but it does look like a much weaker cyclone as it moves into Florida than originally expected. With land interaction over Cuba and the current 50mph strength, it appears most likely this system should be no more than a cat 1 in South Florida, even if some re-strengthening does happen over the open waters north of Cuba. A heavy rain maker is the best bet at this point.........

My dad has a rental property in Lady Lake and is very happy with the latest news. :wink:
0 likes   

stormernie

#304 Postby stormernie » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:40 am

Wilma and Katrina were Cat 1 in Florida, it was not pretty.
0 likes   

User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:

#305 Postby storms in NC » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:41 am

Now are they for sure now? AFM said to wait till Monday to see what happens. Will this is Monday. I wish he would come back. I miss reading his posts.
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

#306 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:43 am

is there any reason the steering pattern will get this to get to 80 West longitude

it seems to me this is going more north and right every update and it is at least a signifigant probability this could be a FISH for the U.S
0 likes   

Thatsmrhurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 182
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:30 pm
Location: CBNC

#307 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:44 am

Anyone notice the Ernesto is starting to wrap moisture around his N side? Will he continue to do this as he gains lat. and moves away from Haiti?
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

#308 Postby cpdaman » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:47 am

wilma was not CAT 1 it was a solid cat 2 for most of S FL anyway
0 likes   

User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:

#309 Postby storms in NC » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:47 am

He is 10 miles from Cuba. That is going to put a hurtting on him
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#310 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:48 am

cpdaman wrote:wilma was not CAT 1 it was a solid cat 2 for most of S FL anyway


Miami only recorded Cat 1 winds.
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

#311 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:48 am

Morning everybody.. I went to sleep about 330ish in the morning. I see Ernesto has gotten his act together, and the watches are issued. I am not very cool with the last line in stewart's 5am disco:
JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

That is NOT what I wanted to read this morning, however since he basically skirted Cuba, it is to be expected.
0 likes   

User avatar
Windtalker1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 523
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:00 am
Location: Mesa, Arizona

#312 Postby Windtalker1 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:50 am

They were just talking live to the Hurricane center on channel 4 Miami and they said the models have come to an agreement that this will be a S Florida Storm. They went on to say that the aircraft measured the enviroment around Ernesto last night and they feed this info into the computer. They said the models should not trend anymore east.
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#313 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:50 am

http://cbs4.com/ i dont remember Broward being under a hurricane watch! is this true?
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
Windtalker1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 523
Age: 37
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:00 am
Location: Mesa, Arizona

#314 Postby Windtalker1 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:52 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:http://cbs4.com/ i dont remember Broward being under a hurricane watch! is this true?
Yes they are since 5AM
0 likes   

Thatsmrhurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 182
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:30 pm
Location: CBNC

#315 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:52 am

Yes and Good Morning.
0 likes   

User avatar
gtalum
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4749
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Sep 07, 2004 3:48 pm
Location: Bradenton, FL
Contact:

#316 Postby gtalum » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:53 am

This is insane. The forecast changed from the western Gulf all the way to Miami in just 2 days or so. Wow. Ernie has really thrown us all for a loop!
0 likes   

kenl01
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:35 am

#317 Postby kenl01 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:53 am

I'm looking forward to this system - we could use more rain !

Good ! :D
0 likes   

Patrick99
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1772
Joined: Mon May 24, 2004 3:43 pm
Location: SW Broward, FL

#318 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:54 am

tgenius wrote:Morning everybody.. I went to sleep about 330ish in the morning. I see Ernesto has gotten his act together, and the watches are issued. I am not very cool with the last line in stewart's 5am disco:
JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

That is NOT what I wanted to read this morning, however since he basically skirted Cuba, it is to be expected.


Are you kidding? I just don't see how that's possible right now, given the satellite appearance. I know the Straits can ramp a hurricane up quickly, but that's assuming it still has some form after Cuba....
0 likes   

Vandora
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 198
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 4:21 am
Location: Miami-Dade (Kendall), FL
Contact:

#319 Postby Vandora » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:54 am

Channel 10 (watching the livestream, thank goodness for the internet since we have no TV anymore), Knabb was on and said much of what Windtalker said. That he feels this is a S. FL storm, the models shouldn't shift anymore much, and that they are unsure of intensity.
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#320 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 28, 2006 6:55 am

Patrick99 wrote:
tgenius wrote:Morning everybody.. I went to sleep about 330ish in the morning. I see Ernesto has gotten his act together, and the watches are issued. I am not very cool with the last line in stewart's 5am disco:
JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

That is NOT what I wanted to read this morning, however since he basically skirted Cuba, it is to be expected.


Are you kidding? I just don't see how that's possible right now, given the satellite appearance. I know the Straits can ramp a hurricane up quickly, but that's assuming it still has some form after Cuba....


If it keeps up, Ernesto MIGHT not see much of Cuba.

The fact that he is making landfall THIS early on Cuba is astounding
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests