Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[stormchazer]

Model tendacy is well west of the FL Peninsula. Its early, but i have a Monday morning flight out of TPA and I predict that we will not have a close storm to dodge. High pressure appears to be forecast to block Peninsular FL.

Look out Western GOM.

[seaswing]

Actually...we better hope the GFS IS right and it goes onto a path into the big bend/Apalachicola area.

Anything west of Mobile would be a horrible place for this to hit...N.O./MGC area because of last year, Western Gulf because of the oil rigs and refineries.....bad if it hit Pensacola because of Ivan/Dennis....hit on Mexico is just not likely...

Well, I do not hope for the big bend area, remember Florida has been hit by 8 hurricanes in the last two years. As much as we are prepared, probably better than any other state, we have seen more than our share. The big bend area is vulnerable as well.

[Trugunzn]

Scary the track GFDL has it aims at New Orleans as a cat 3 or higher around Katrina anniversary

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Air Force Met]

Looking at the GFDL, the storm looks to be oriented towards the northeast. Big Bend?

Please read my posts on why the GFDL is hosed.

It's hosed. It sees shear and thinks its steering flow.

Remember 2 days ago when it had it east of PR?

[Extremeweatherguy]

This WILL NOT be a charley #2. The situation with Charley was completely different than with this. ATM, I think the chances of Florida being hit by this one are slim to none. However, I would not rule out AL/MS just yet. LA and TX still look to be the most vulnerable though.

[Brent]

W are all going to be riding bikes if this storm Goes in The GOM

Better dust them off...

[Bailey1777]

AFM,

What are your thoughts on #5 right now and what do you see for the future?

[Dean4Storms]

GFS 144 hour model doesn't show any Highs in the Gulf. It shows a recurve synoptic.

Beat me too it..

You're looking at the wrong level, look up in the mid levels and upper levels. Here's the mean flow 700-400mb for 12Z Tuesday:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby23.gif

It doesn't make sense with the GFDL running off it. The ridge would have to either be much weaker or further east than what the GFS is depecting here with the GFDL's latest run bringing TD5 into the SE Gulf headed NNW to NW.

[Stormcenter]

Scary the track GFDL has it aims at New Orleans as a cat 3 or higher around Katrina anniversary

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

It actually looks at the end of the loop like it's about to start a North to NNE movement.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

People this has not happen yet in its a wait in see, the upper level Enviroment is not that faverable for this to do a RIC. In really the LLC and MLC is displaced from each other. So we need to wait in see what happens before getting the blood pressure up. Lets take this day by day. In also remember this is not 2004,2005 this is 2006!

[rnbaida]

Does the water vapor loop look like it is strenthening or weakining?

[HouTXmetro]

Scary the track GFDL has it aims at New Orleans as a cat 3 or higher around Katrina anniversary

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

It actually looks at the end of the loop like it's about to start a North to NNE movement.

I'm going to listen to he pro-mets. They have explained in great detailed the pros and cons of each models. with that said it's early but the Gulf period needs to be ready from Pensecola to Brownsville.

[Stormcenter]

As of now,I just don't see this going anywhere further west than the TX/LA border, if that. It still has to make it into the GOM and I have doubts it will do that.

[Scorpion]

The circulation looks very impressive now.

[seaswing]

As of now,I just don't see this going anywhere further west than the TX/LA border, if that. It still has to make it into the GOM and I have doubts it will do that.

Doubts it will go into GOM? can you explain further?

[Extremeweatherguy]

As of now,I just don't see this going anywhere further west than the TX/LA border, if that. It still has to make it into the GOM and I have doubts it will do that.

yes, it is possible you could be correct, but as of now your statement is going against what almost every single met is saying.

[canegrl04]

I was just thinking of the Katrina anniversary.I have an awful feeling soon to be Ernesto will take a similar track and pretty dang close to the date (Aug.31/Sept1 )

[Brent]

Does the water vapor loop look like it is strenthening or weakining?

It looks better because there's convection over the center... it's not displaced like it was earlier. It may very well become displaced later, or it may continue to strengthen, but for right now, it looks better.

[rnbaida]

I was just thinking of the Katrina anniversary.I have an awful feeling soon to be Ernesto will take a similar track and pretty dang close to the date (Aug.31/Sept1 )

I was just thinking of that....

[ronjon]

If you can believe any model right now - the GFS looks like it actually stalls the system in the southern GOM in the 6-7 day time frame and then slowly meanders it north-northeast into the central gulf cost. It doesn't develop the cyclone so I don't know how valid the simulation is. It looks like a trough and cut-off low develops near memphis and keeps general troughiness over the deep south during this period. The 500 mb ridge is broad and flat over the GOM so it might be reasonable for this storm to really slow down as steering currents weaken in the 6-7 day time frame.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml