Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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- stormchazer
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Model tendacy is well west of the FL Peninsula. Its early, but i have a Monday morning flight out of TPA and I predict that we will not have a close storm to dodge. High pressure appears to be forecast to block Peninsular FL.
Look out Western GOM.
Look out Western GOM.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Opinions my own.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Opinions my own.
- seaswing
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gopherfan21 wrote:Actually...we better hope the GFS IS right and it goes onto a path into the big bend/Apalachicola area.
Anything west of Mobile would be a horrible place for this to hit...N.O./MGC area because of last year, Western Gulf because of the oil rigs and refineries.....bad if it hit Pensacola because of Ivan/Dennis....hit on Mexico is just not likely...
Well, I do not hope for the big bend area, remember Florida has been hit by 8 hurricanes in the last two years. As much as we are prepared, probably better than any other state, we have seen more than our share. The big bend area is vulnerable as well.
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Scary the track GFDL has it aims at New Orleans as a cat 3 or higher around Katrina anniversary
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
Last edited by Trugunzn on Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Military Met
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- Extremeweatherguy
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wxman57 wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Sanibel wrote:GFS 144 hour model doesn't show any Highs in the Gulf. It shows a recurve synoptic.
Beat me too it..
You're looking at the wrong level, look up in the mid levels and upper levels. Here's the mean flow 700-400mb for 12Z Tuesday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby23.gif
It doesn't make sense with the GFDL running off it. The ridge would have to either be much weaker or further east than what the GFS is depecting here with the GFDL's latest run bringing TD5 into the SE Gulf headed NNW to NW.
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Trugunzn wrote:Scary the track GFDL has it aims at New Orleans as a cat 3 or higher around Katrina anniversary
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
It actually looks at the end of the loop like it's about to start a North to NNE movement.
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People this has not happen yet in its a wait in see, the upper level Enviroment is not that faverable for this to do a RIC. In really the LLC and MLC is displaced from each other. So we need to wait in see what happens before getting the blood pressure up. Lets take this day by day. In also remember this is not 2004,2005 this is 2006!
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- HouTXmetro
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Stormcenter wrote:Trugunzn wrote:Scary the track GFDL has it aims at New Orleans as a cat 3 or higher around Katrina anniversary
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
It actually looks at the end of the loop like it's about to start a North to NNE movement.
I'm going to listen to he pro-mets. They have explained in great detailed the pros and cons of each models. with that said it's early but the Gulf period needs to be ready from Pensecola to Brownsville.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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- Extremeweatherguy
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yes, it is possible you could be correct, but as of now your statement is going against what almost every single met is saying.Stormcenter wrote:As of now,I just don't see this going anywhere further west than the TX/LA border, if that. It still has to make it into the GOM and I have doubts it will do that.
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rnbaida wrote:Does the water vapor loop look like it is strenthening or weakining?
It looks better because there's convection over the center... it's not displaced like it was earlier. It may very well become displaced later, or it may continue to strengthen, but for right now, it looks better.
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#neversummer
If you can believe any model right now - the GFS looks like it actually stalls the system in the southern GOM in the 6-7 day time frame and then slowly meanders it north-northeast into the central gulf cost. It doesn't develop the cyclone so I don't know how valid the simulation is. It looks like a trough and cut-off low develops near memphis and keeps general troughiness over the deep south during this period. The 500 mb ridge is broad and flat over the GOM so it might be reasonable for this storm to really slow down as steering currents weaken in the 6-7 day time frame.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
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