Global Models Thread for 90L

[windstorm99]

Significant threat to the islands on this run for sure.

[Aric Dunn]

[Opal storm]

If those models are right, this is going to be a extremely compact storm...sorta like Charley/Dennis type size.

[Wx_Warrior]

This sucks

[MusicCityMan]

whats the matter, warrior?

[Extremeweatherguy]

If those models are right, this is going to be a extremely compact storm...sorta like Charley/Dennis type size.

May be in the beginning, but In past runs the GFS has shown this eventually becoming a fairly large storm in the GOM. (take for instance the 6z run = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif)

[Wx_Warrior]

MCM...I went thru Rita, which was nothing compared to what most others have. I love to track them just wish the best on the states.

[Extremeweatherguy]

126 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

~1001mbs (still fairly weak..a TD or TS). Islands could be in trouble.

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

**This run is (so far) faster and further SW than the 12z run for this storm.**

[fci]

I don't know but I see lots of comments of how the model's track changes every run and will continue to flip back and forth.

Well each time I see the GFS, I see the same result.
Headed for us in Fl.

Oh subtle changes here and there but essentially a whole lot of consistency.

I would prefer more flip-flopping!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

This run looks like FL and the GOM.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Considering this is only 120-130 hours out...the islands should probably watch very closely. Those timeframes are not nearly as close to "la-la land" scenarios as say 200+ hours. This is only 5 days out for them!

[Extremeweatherguy]

138 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

996 mbs. Rapid deepening near the islands into a decent TS. Heading only a slight hair north of due west still.

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138l.gif

[Annie Oakley]

Hope Florida is spared-if anything after suffering through 4 in one year Floridians will be well-prepared....I saw too many blue roofs when I was there.......

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I had a feeling 18Z was going to do this. It always does. It will have landfall in Central Gulf coast then the 0Z tonight will have landfall again in FL and E. Coast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

150 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

996mbs. In the Caribbean and heading DUE WEST.

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Looks like to me the 18Z is to far south with it.

[windstorm99]

Looks like a heading into the caribbean possibly.

[Wx_Warrior]

When's the next 18z run 2nite?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like to me the 18Z is to far south with it.

May be..but then again who really knows at this point. This is only 1-2 degrees latitude south of the 12z position during the same timeframe. Let's just hope the 18z is wrong though. If it remains over the Caribbean, then the boiling waters may allow this system to rapidly explode into a monster.

[Derek Ortt]

As an aside, the resolution of the GFS degrades as the forecast time increases. So 996 may very well be a significant hurricane