Global Models Thread for 90L

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windstorm99
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#381 Postby windstorm99 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:14 pm

Significant threat to the islands on this run for sure.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#382 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:15 pm

Image
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#383 Postby Opal storm » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:15 pm

If those models are right, this is going to be a extremely compact storm...sorta like Charley/Dennis type size.
Last edited by Opal storm on Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#384 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:15 pm

This sucks :crying:
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#385 Postby MusicCityMan » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:17 pm

whats the matter, warrior?
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#386 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:17 pm

Opal storm wrote:If those models are right, this is going to be a extremely compact storm...sorta like Charley/Dennis type size.
May be in the beginning, but In past runs the GFS has shown this eventually becoming a fairly large storm in the GOM. (take for instance the 6z run = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif)
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#387 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:18 pm

MCM...I went thru Rita, which was nothing compared to what most others have. I love to track them just wish the best on the states.
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#388 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:19 pm

126 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

~1001mbs (still fairly weak..a TD or TS). Islands could be in trouble.

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

**This run is (so far) faster and further SW than the 12z run for this storm.**
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#389 Postby fci » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:20 pm

I don't know but I see lots of comments of how the model's track changes every run and will continue to flip back and forth.

Well each time I see the GFS, I see the same result.
Headed for us in Fl.

Oh subtle changes here and there but essentially a whole lot of consistency.

I would prefer more flip-flopping! :)
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#390 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:21 pm

This run looks like FL and the GOM.
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#391 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:22 pm

Considering this is only 120-130 hours out...the islands should probably watch very closely. Those timeframes are not nearly as close to "la-la land" scenarios as say 200+ hours. This is only 5 days out for them!
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#392 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:23 pm

138 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

996 mbs. Rapid deepening near the islands into a decent TS. Heading only a slight hair north of due west still.

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138l.gif
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#393 Postby Annie Oakley » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:25 pm

Hope Florida is spared-if anything after suffering through 4 in one year Floridians will be well-prepared....I saw too many blue roofs when I was there.......
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#394 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:25 pm

I had a feeling 18Z was going to do this. It always does. It will have landfall in Central Gulf coast then the 0Z tonight will have landfall again in FL and E. Coast.
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#395 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:28 pm

150 hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

996mbs. In the Caribbean and heading DUE WEST.

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#396 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:29 pm

Looks like to me the 18Z is to far south with it.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#397 Postby windstorm99 » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:29 pm

Looks like a heading into the caribbean possibly.
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#398 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:30 pm

When's the next 18z run 2nite?
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Re: Models Thread for 90L

#399 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:31 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Looks like to me the 18Z is to far south with it.
May be..but then again who really knows at this point. This is only 1-2 degrees latitude south of the 12z position during the same timeframe. Let's just hope the 18z is wrong though. If it remains over the Caribbean, then the boiling waters may allow this system to rapidly explode into a monster.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

#400 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:31 pm

As an aside, the resolution of the GFS degrades as the forecast time increases. So 996 may very well be a significant hurricane
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