Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[Stratosphere747]

If we could pick this up and set it in the Gulf or West Caribbean, would the NHC have upgraded it at 11?

Possible, but they would have better tools to identify it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If we could pick this up and set it in the Gulf or West Caribbean, would the NHC have upgraded it at 11?

There is almost no question a recon would of been in it. In likely would of found the LLC that the quickscats been showing. So yes.

[vacanechaser]

If we could pick this up and set it in the Gulf or West Caribbean, would the NHC have upgraded it at 11?

possible.. have seen it before.. it may have been to close to call.. however, with it so far out in the atlantic and days away, why make a rush call and find out in the morning that things are not as they seemed?? maybe, they want to see if this latest burst presists...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[destruction92]

If it go's into the caribbean then the Gulf is targetted. If it go's north of the islands there is to many troughs and the tutt is fairly strong. So the east coast is fairly safe.

What do you mean by "tutt"?
Just because something enters the Caribbean does not make it an automatic threat to the U.S. gulf coast...playing the "strong ridging game" means that central America and Mexico are just as vulnerable if not more likely targets...remember Mitch?

there are not too many troughs this time of year and they are usually weak.

the GFS model, which derek ortt does not depend on, is the model predicting a possible GOM entry (at like 200+ hours) and few/weak troughs.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it go's into the caribbean then the Gulf is targetted. If it go's north of the islands there is to many troughs and the tutt is fairly strong. So the east coast is fairly safe.

now thats just to bold to make that statement... way to early to even consider making that statement about the east coast... just a foolish and silly statement.. things change quickly and there is no way of knowing this far out.. trough?? last i checked here in va, we had a huge high in place with temps near or over 100 all last week and the same forecast for this coming week...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Silly, no let me back up why I think this. The TUTT is very strong around 50-70 west , 20-25 north. This been sending upper lows westward from 50-55 west then moving them west into Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. Also the Azores/subtropical ridge is weaker around 65-70 west. So it would be fairly easly to get a trough into the area. Not saying it could not happen, but saying a floyd,Fran,Dennis, shot at the outterbanks would be more likely,. But this is a long ways out. So nothing is to say that it is impossible.

[wxman57]

So let me guess, the east coast of the U.S. is safe?
Is it accurate to rule out an east coast storm 10 days in advance?
We all know the limitations of global model forecasting 100 hours + in advance.

I most certainly wouldn't rule out a hit to Florida or the Carolinas. Remember last year when the GFS forecast a strong ridge that would most definitely put Ernesto into the western Gulf? And that was when Ernesto was in the Caribbean. There was even good model consensus for such a track. The NHC even ridiculed the GFS a day later when it suddenly forecast Ernesto to turn north toward Florida "right into the ridge!". Well, the models can be very bad at predicting the upper air flow beyond a few days out, particularly over the tropics. So I won't rule anything out at this early time. I'm fairly confident the NE Caribbean will be impacted by a hurricane Thursday afternoon/evening (earlier than the models are predicting because I still measure a forward speed of 19kts vs the model's 16kts). Beyond that, it's anyone's guess.

Bed time!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it go's into the caribbean then the Gulf is targetted. If it go's north of the islands there is to many troughs and the tutt is fairly strong. So the east coast is fairly safe.

What do you mean by "tutt"?
Just because something enters the Caribbean does not make it an automatic threat to the U.S. gulf coast...playing the "strong ridging game" means that central America and Mexico are just as vulnerable if not more likely targets...remember Mitch?

there are not too many troughs this time of year and they are usually weak.

the GFS model, which derek ortt does not depend on, is the model predicting a possible GOM entry (at like 200+ hours) and few/weak troughs.

TUTT=Tropical upper low that normal shear the heck of system trying to get into the center Atlatnic. Also the area that forms upper lows that move east to west through out the 15-30 north area of the western Atlatnic. Also yes your right about there is not many troughs that are strong enough to pull all systems. Just saying in genral. In it would not blow my world if this high did to this what it did to 99L. The best track at least by the global models we have no takes it into the Caribbean. Also weakness in the high will allow a system to move northward into it, as a system strengthens they trend to went to move northward.

[vacanechaser]

So let me guess, the east coast of the U.S. is safe?
Is it accurate to rule out an east coast storm 10 days in advance?
We all know the limitations of global model forecasting 100 hours + in advance.

I most certainly wouldn't rule out a hit to Florida or the Carolinas. Remember last year when the GFS forecast a strong ridge that would most definitely put Ernesto into the western Gulf? And that was when Ernesto was in the Caribbean. There was even good model consensus for such a track. The NHC even ridiculed the GFS a day later when it suddenly forecast Ernesto to turn north toward Florida "right into the ridge!". Well, the models can be very bad at predicting the upper air flow beyond a few days out, particularly over the tropics. So I won't rule anything out at this early time. I'm fairly confident the NE Caribbean will be impacted by a hurricane Thursday afternoon/evening (earlier than the models are predicting because I still measure a forward speed of 19kts vs the model's 16kts). Beyond that, it's anyone's guess.

Bed time!

sounds reasonable to me... and ernesto hit wilmington stronger than it hit florida thats for sure... things are just subject to change with the tropics way to much.. i would not rule anything out or say that an area is fairly safe at this time....



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KFDM Meteorologist]

So let me guess, the east coast of the U.S. is safe?
Is it accurate to rule out an east coast storm 10 days in advance?
We all know the limitations of global model forecasting 100 hours + in advance.

I most certainly wouldn't rule out a hit to Florida or the Carolinas. Remember last year when the GFS forecast a strong ridge that would most definitely put Ernesto into the western Gulf? And that was when Ernesto was in the Caribbean. There was even good model consensus for such a track. The NHC even ridiculed the GFS a day later when it suddenly forecast Ernesto to turn north toward Florida "right into the ridge!". Well, the models can be very bad at predicting the upper air flow beyond a few days out, particularly over the tropics. So I won't rule anything out at this early time. I'm fairly confident the NE Caribbean will be impacted by a hurricane Thursday afternoon/evening (earlier than the models are predicting because I still measure a forward speed of 19kts vs the model's 16kts). Beyond that, it's anyone's guess.

Bed time!

Well said! I agree.

[JonathanBelles]

latest forecast posted: viewtopic.php?p=1590231#p1590231

[Betrock]

Good place to look for the meaning of a LOT of acronyms is in the 'S2K Weather Acronyms' thread at the Tropical Reference Library Forum.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=95832&start=20

Look there for TUTT as well as many others.
The first post is kept updated with any additions so you can just look thru the 1st post on the thread, rather than search thru all the subsequent posts. Simple, easy, concise, fairly alphabetical!

Best to all,
Betrock
(TUTT - tropical upper tropospheric trough)

[cycloneye]

This is the latest quickscat which shows a well defined circulation.

[Sanibel]

Isn't 13N a recurve latitude statistically?

[hurricanefloyd5]

winds of 30-35mph winds according to the quickscat!!!!

[RL3AO]

Maybe I'm off, but it looks like QS has shown a closed LLC for hours now. Does this prove that the NHC does not completely trust QS?

[sevenleft]

Maybe I'm off, but it looks like QS has shown a closed LLC for hours now. Does this prove that the NHC does not completely trust QS?

It's not that. They are just waiting for it to gain a more sound vertical structure.

[chadtm80]

Yes but if you look at quickscat center is at 27 or just "right" of 27... where as convection is centered over 30

[Brent]

Impressive Quikscat, but as Chad said, the center is somewhat exposed still. I defintely think it'll get an upgrade in the morning though.

[Aric Dunn]

I know everyone has said it already but there is no way its not TD.. !!

[hurricanefloyd5]

is there any buoys and/or ship reports from this area??