ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's starting. Plus the Wpac storm which will enhance the westerlies.

[Ntxw]

^ another vantage point. It's getting that look, equatorial Pacific heat.

upwell continues as waters below 3 and 1+2 are now feeling the push of the warm pool. Next MJO wave will do it, blow off the cap.





Nothing is going to stop it now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like this will surpass 1997. The sea surface temperatures on the 1st week of April are higher. The subsurface pool too is stronger this year.

[South Texas Storms]

Ntxw, when do you expect the next MJO wave to move through the ENSO regions?
The models show the MJO moving back into the inner circle in about a week. Do you not agree with them?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, when do you expect the next MJO wave to move through the ENSO regions?
The models show the MJO moving back into the inner circle in about a week. Do you not agree with them?

Don't worry about the chart too much. It gives a general idea, the new strong MJO is moving quickly from the IO. Laws of it says it must progress east, it does not show you the convectively-coupled Kelvin waves. This is the important thing regarding the MJO and ENSO. Each Kelvin wave pushes more warmth eastward. The eastern region may see some strong westerlies while new (MJO related) coming from the west. This is why 3 and 1+2 will heat up very quick.

[South Texas Storms]

Ah, I see now. It shows up much better on that image. Is the GFS seeing that strong Kelvin wave due in part to the developing TC in the WPAC? Also, where do you get those images from?

[CaliforniaResident]

Will the major earthquake in Northern Chile yesterday have any affect on El Nino? Will it push the warm water away or draw it in?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Ah, I see now. It shows up much better on that image. Is the GFS seeing that strong Kelvin wave due in part to the developing TC in the WPAC? Also, where do you get those images from?

Mike Ventrice (the Dr. who posted from Jeff Master's blog about super El Nino possibility back in Feb) IMO is one of the best in the relatively young science of MJO. I follow his stuff on MJO intently and his site is much better than what the CPC has. Can be found here!

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TD 05W is expected to intensify into a typhoon, which may cause a WWB
..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño regions are rapidly warming. Niño 1+2 is away from Nina status, Niño 3 is very near El Niño threshold at +0.436, Niño 3.4 is warming and at warm neutral and Niño 4 is at El Niño threshold.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow: Ah, I see now. It shows up much better on that image. Is the GFS seeing that strong Kelvin wave due in part to the developing TC in the WPAC? Also, where do you get those images from?

Mike Ventrice (the Dr. who posted from Jeff Master's blog about super El Nino possibility back in Feb) IMO is one of the best in the relatively young science of MJO. I follow his stuff on MJO intently and his site is much better than what the CPC has. Can be found here!

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/

Thanks for the link, he does have a pretty cool site! So the next Kelvin wave should be arriving in the ENSO regions in the next 10 days?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest update on Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies:
Note that I rounded off the numbers.
Nino 1+2
Yesterday: -0.3C
Today: -0.25C
Nino 3
Yesterday: +0.3C
Today:+0.51C
Nino 3.4
Yesterday: +0.2C
Today: +0.48C
Nino 4
Yesterday: +0.8C
Today: +0.84C


Looks like a strong El Nino is very close to reality right now. We can also see that those cool anomalies are starting to be replaced by warmer anomalies.

[cycloneye]

Is inevitable now.

[MississippiWx]

Levi's site has Nino 3.4 at +0.591 now while Nino 4 is at +0.9.

[Ntxw]

It is not just the wpac, on the other side of the equator there is activity as well. All a big part of what is going on, plenty of ominous signs. A lot of energy to come in the tropical Pacific. When you have feedback one thing just enhances another in a cycle.

[cycloneye]

Levi's site has Nino 3.4 at +0.591 now while Nino 4 is at +0.9.

Saved graphics.

[euro6208]

All 3 regions except 1.2 already at elnino!

1.2 is shallower and any changes will be temporary but once the warm pool comes...nothing is stopping it...

WARMTH coming to 1.2!

[Kingarabian]

Interesting to watch. All happening without a WWB in place and an MJO not in prime position!

[stormkite]

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/

Good link.

[blp]

Although I do see the parallels between 97 event and this year in the EPAC the Atlantic is a different story as we have a fairly large warm pool in the W. Atlantic versus in 97 which was showing mostly warm pool off Africa and cool waters in W. Atlantic. I also went back to the 04, 06, 09 events and they were all similar in profile to 97. I don't see a close parallel for this ENSO year. Granted it is early but it something I will keep my eye on. May be a problem for home brew systems.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.3.2014.gif