Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic

[Sanibel]

While the convection in the ITCZ might be weak it is present. It might be indicating future activity.

[Dean4Storms]

Think this will be a Carib. Sea cruiser, just don't see the further north solution by GFS into western Atlantic given the reality of the ECM's ridge.

[wxman57]

The Caribbean looks much more hostile than the Atlantic. Lower-level winds have been in the 25-35 kt range for quite a while. With a deep trof along the East U.S. Coast next week, a track north of the Caribbean looks most likely. GFS solution/track looks good to me.

[SFLcane]

Very little chance bertha would have an impact on the US pretty substational trof waiting for it should recurve what ever develops.

[blp]

Very little chance bertha would have an impact on the US pretty substational trof waiting for it should recurve what ever develops.

http://i59.tinypic.com/282geox.png[/img]

That trough is going to lift out by the time the system gets closer. The Euro has a strong ridge over Bermuda building in late in the run around time our wave might be around Puerto Rico.

[SFLcane]

Blp pattern just has not been conducive for landfalls last few yrs for what ever reason. Still plenty of time to watch this one IF it even develops i've lost all hope in this basin cant even put out a decent capeverde storm to track just garbage storms way up there in the middle of no were.

[NDG]

You guys are looking at the huge trough diving down the eastern US in the next 2-5 days the Euro & 0z GFS show for the trough not push eastward towards the Atlantic, for anything for it retrograde westward towards the MS River valley as heights rise near Bermuda northward towards the NW Atlantic in the 7-10 day range.
CFS also agrees with heights building across Bermuda.

[gatorcane]

Blp pattern just has not been conducive for landfalls last few yrs for what ever reason. Still plenty of time to watch this one IF it even develops i've lost all hope in this basin cant even put out a decent capeverde storm to track just garbage storms way up there in the middle of no were.

Definitely too early to say where this would end up if it develops. I do see the globals hinting at a building Bermuda High ridge after the anomalously large trough over Eastern North America pulls out next weekend / early next week. For example, take a look at the 00Z GFS 500MB Height anomalies loop and look around 180 hours and beyond:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... a_atl.html

One thing that is different from previous recent years are the anomalously strong troughs we are seeing in July over Eastern North America - I don't remember troughs this strong in July. Could this mean a long-wave pattern change come Aug/Sept which would open the door?

[tropicwatch]

It is odd for fronts to make it through the Panhandle and eastward this time of year. A more normal pattern might still happen, the summer still has a couple of months to go.

[cycloneye]

The beginning.

[gatorcane]

Nice image cycloneye. Looking at the latest satellite loops of the area this morning, convection is on the increase with this wave though still disorganized. WV loops show lessening dry air across the MDR with the ITCZ firing which could be caused by the anticipated arrival of the MJO pulse into the Atlantic basin.

It's becoming clear there is more moisture around for this wave than TD #2 which should allow some slow development this coming week.

[KWT]

Reasonable shot at getting Bertha out of this, decent looking conditions upto around 55-60W. After that there does seem to be higher shear, though this does lessen further north you get.

Track is a toughie, but I suspect a recurve around 65-70W will be the most likely if it goes on to develop like the GFS. If it doesn't develop soon enough, it will be destroyed in the Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

One thing I notice that a few have mentioned is how much moisture we are seeing in the MDR. These are some of the most favorable conditions we've seen in the MDR recently.

Fairly confident we won't be seeing a long track major storm though. I don't see the Caribbean getting much better anytime soon.

[AtlanticWind]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model

12z GFS Showing pretty strong tropical storm

[NDG]

Click here for loop over the eastern Atlantic

[gatorcane]

Looks like the latest GFS out through 138 hours is about 1MB stronger, slight slower, and just slightly more north tracking it towards the NE leewards...

[northjaxpro]

One thing I notice that a few have mentioned is how much moisture we are seeing in the MDR. These are some of the most favorable conditions we've seen in the MDR recently.

Fairly confident we won't be seeing a long track major storm though. I don't see the Caribbean getting much better anytime soon.

Definitely agree with you about this. The Caribbean has been heavy with shear all season long to this point, so any system approaching that region is just going to get ripped to shreads.

This wave has a shot to gradually develop the next 3-5 days. But even if it does, huge questions on whether or not it can survive hostile conditions past 55 degrees longitude.

[NDG]

12z GFS looks even more bullish than its earlier 06z run.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS 150 hours showing 500MB anomalies for steering with the system near the NE Leewards. Question becomes does the Bermuda ridge build in or does that trough over Eastern North America stand strong?

[KWT]

Yes more bullish in the 72-144hrs range, a stronger system should be able to escape out to sea, there is a ridge building in in the 9-10 day range but by that point a strong system may well be on the connecting route out to sea.

With that said, experience tells me that these systems tend to go further west when they form in this area than models expect andI suspect any recurve will be closer to 80W than 60W.