chris remnants thread #8

[kenl01]

Plus with only marginal conditions for redevelopment, the chances are pretty slim for this system to redevelop into anything potent anytime soon. Overall the shear is expected to remain unfavoravble for the next several days....

[rnbaida]

That what i am seeing. Shear is high and it is extrememly disorganized to develop into anything major...

[cheezyWXguy]

Plus with only marginal conditions for redevelopment, the chances are pretty slim for this system to redevelop into anything potent anytime soon. Overall the shear is expected to remain unfavoravble for the next several days....

What do you think the conditions were when Chris fisrt started out as a TD? I say it has a decent chance and that is the LLC

[kenl01]

Plus with only marginal conditions for redevelopment, the chances are pretty slim for this system to redevelop into anything potent anytime soon. Overall the shear is expected to remain unfavoravble for the next several days....

What do you think the conditions were when Chris fisrt started out as a TD? I say it has a decent chance and that is the LLC

The conditions were somewhat favorable during the time (little shear for about 24 to 36hrs) when it developed. Immediately thereafter though, an ULL dropped south into the cyclone, causing rapid weakening due to increased shear of course. Even though conditions are not as hostile at the moment, the relative shear should inhibit any significant redevelopment for now. Also AccuWx recently stated "While the system will continue over warm waters, strong upper-level winds make it unlikely that Chris will return to his former glory anytime soon."

There maybe some chance of redevelopment in the west GOM before landfall, but by then there won't be sufficient time for significant redevelopment to commence since it will be too close to land already.

[Air Force Met]

That what i am seeing. Shear is high and it is extrememly disorganized to develop into anything major...

It's disorganized...but where are you getting your info that shear is high?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

It's sitting under a ridge...and low shear....and good upper level divergence...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

Are you looking at data..or just shooting from the hip?

[WindRunner]

OK, I'll LEAP. There is a LLC just off Havana that will meet anyone's definition.

No, not really . . .

The little tiny circulation you're seeing is definately there, but it's storm-relative as opposed to the ground-relative. Clouds on the southern side of it are still moving west at a pretty good clip, indicating it still has a long ways to go.

[Stormavoider]

That what i am seeing. Shear is high and it is extrememly disorganized to develop into anything major...

It's disorganized...but where are you getting your info that shear is high?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

It's sitting under a ridge...and low shear....and good upper level divergence...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

Are you looking at data..are just shooting from the hip?

Thanks for the sanity injection!

[Air Force Met]

OK, I'll LEAP. There is a LLC just off Havana that will meet anyone's definition.

No, not really . . .

The little tiny circulation you're seeing is definately there, but it's storm-relative as opposed to the ground-relative. Clouds on the southern side of it are still moving west at a pretty good clip, indicating it still has a long ways to go.

And actually...if you compare it with an IR...it appears to be in the mid-levels...not the low levels. It shows up well on IR and if it was a LLC...it wouldn't.

[Stormavoider]

OK, I'll LEAP. There is a LLC just off Havana that will meet anyone's definition.

No, not really . . .

The little tiny circulation you're seeing is definately there, but it's storm-relative as opposed to the ground-relative. Clouds on the southern side of it are still moving west at a pretty good clip, indicating it still has a long ways to go.

I disagree. If you look at the loop prior to the center being obscured, you can clearly see eastward movement.

[Air Force Met]

Thanks for the sanity injection!

No problem. The strong winds are actually ahead of the wave. That is giving it some speed divergence....hence the divergence area on the chart.

The winds are 15 knots at 300mb where the wave is now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_003l.gif

That hardly qualifies as HIGH shear...especially when the wave is moving at about 10 knots...so...5 knots of east wind on top of it.

[Stratosphere747]

You have to remember that just because you see a circulation, it may not be at the lower levels.

[JonathanBelles]

wheres it at now?

[Stormavoider]

And actually...if you compare it with an IR...it appears to be in the mid-levels...not the low levels. It shows up well on IR and if it was a LLC...it wouldn't.

If it is mid level would it be so persistent in holding it's position?

[Air Force Met]

You have to remember that just because you see a circulation, it may not be at the lower levels.

Yep..if vis is available...you always have to match it up with IR...and that goes for anything...even in the winter time.

Always compare the two...using IR to find the temp of the cloud so you know what level it is. In this instance...the clouds are below freezing...so it is mid-upper levels....which is typical in the tropics when you get a deep burst of convection. It spins up a vort center in the mid and upper levels. That vort center, if it can keep some convection is critical in working with the tropical wave to form a sfc low.

https://txspace.tamu.edu/bitstream/1969 ... Sippel.pdf

http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:YHaL ... lr=lang_en

[Thunder44]

And actually...if you compare it with an IR...it appears to be in the mid-levels...not the low levels. It shows up well on IR and if it was a LLC...it wouldn't.

If it is mid level would it be so persistent in holding it's position?

I can tell by just looking at visible imagery it's a MLC. When you see more gray and whispy looking clouds than white and thicker clouds, those are usually cirrus clouds which are usually farther above the surface.

[Air Force Met]

And actually...if you compare it with an IR...it appears to be in the mid-levels...not the low levels. It shows up well on IR and if it was a LLC...it wouldn't.

If it is mid level would it be so persistent in holding it's position?

The flow in the mid levels isn't that strong right now.

But it is mid-level. Look at an IR shot and check out the temps on it:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[Stormavoider]

You have to remember that just because you see a circulation, it may not be at the lower levels.

Yep..if vis is available...you always have to match it up with IR...and that goes for anything...even in the winter time.

Always compare the two...using IR to find the temp of the cloud so you know what level it is. In this instance...the clouds are below freezing...so it is mid-upper levels....which is typical in the tropics when you get a deep burst of convection. It spins up a vort center in the mid and upper levels. That vort center, if it can keep some convection is critical in working with the tropical wave to form a sfc low.

https://txspace.tamu.edu/bitstream/1969 ... Sippel.pdf

http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:YHaL ... lr=lang_en

Standby: I'm looking for my Ouiji board to dial-up Einstein to decipher this for me.

[Stormavoider]

Couldn't find it. I'll have to trust you on the mid-level thing.

Thanks

[Air Force Met]

Couldn't find it. I'll have to trust you on the mid-level thing.

Thanks

Download the article. It's really good research.

[Stormavoider]

Couldn't find it. I'll have to trust you on the mid-level thing.

Thanks

Download the article. It's really good research.

I did thanks.