chris remnants thread #8

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
kenl01
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:35 am

#41 Postby kenl01 » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:21 am

Plus with only marginal conditions for redevelopment, the chances are pretty slim for this system to redevelop into anything potent anytime soon. Overall the shear is expected to remain unfavoravble for the next several days....
0 likes   

rnbaida

#42 Postby rnbaida » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:22 am

That what i am seeing. Shear is high and it is extrememly disorganized to develop into anything major...
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6132
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

#43 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:23 am

kenl01 wrote:Plus with only marginal conditions for redevelopment, the chances are pretty slim for this system to redevelop into anything potent anytime soon. Overall the shear is expected to remain unfavoravble for the next several days....


What do you think the conditions were when Chris fisrt started out as a TD? I say it has a decent chance and that is the LLC
0 likes   

kenl01
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:35 am

#44 Postby kenl01 » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:32 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
kenl01 wrote:Plus with only marginal conditions for redevelopment, the chances are pretty slim for this system to redevelop into anything potent anytime soon. Overall the shear is expected to remain unfavoravble for the next several days....


What do you think the conditions were when Chris fisrt started out as a TD? I say it has a decent chance and that is the LLC


The conditions were somewhat favorable during the time (little shear for about 24 to 36hrs) when it developed. Immediately thereafter though, an ULL dropped south into the cyclone, causing rapid weakening due to increased shear of course. Even though conditions are not as hostile at the moment, the relative shear should inhibit any significant redevelopment for now. Also AccuWx recently stated "While the system will continue over warm waters, strong upper-level winds make it unlikely that Chris will return to his former glory anytime soon."

There maybe some chance of redevelopment in the west GOM before landfall, but by then there won't be sufficient time for significant redevelopment to commence since it will be too close to land already.
Last edited by kenl01 on Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#45 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:34 am

rnbaida wrote:That what i am seeing. Shear is high and it is extrememly disorganized to develop into anything major...


It's disorganized...but where are you getting your info that shear is high?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

It's sitting under a ridge...and low shear....and good upper level divergence...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

Are you looking at data..or just shooting from the hip?
Last edited by Air Force Met on Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#46 Postby WindRunner » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:35 am

Stormavoider wrote:OK, I'll LEAP. There is a LLC just off Havana that will meet anyone's definition.


No, not really . . .

The little tiny circulation you're seeing is definately there, but it's storm-relative as opposed to the ground-relative. Clouds on the southern side of it are still moving west at a pretty good clip, indicating it still has a long ways to go.
0 likes   

Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#47 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:37 am

Air Force Met wrote:
rnbaida wrote:That what i am seeing. Shear is high and it is extrememly disorganized to develop into anything major...


It's disorganized...but where are you getting your info that shear is high?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

It's sitting under a ridge...and low shear....and good upper level divergence...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

Are you looking at data..are just shooting from the hip?


Thanks for the sanity injection!
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#48 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:37 am

WindRunner wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:OK, I'll LEAP. There is a LLC just off Havana that will meet anyone's definition.


No, not really . . .

The little tiny circulation you're seeing is definately there, but it's storm-relative as opposed to the ground-relative. Clouds on the southern side of it are still moving west at a pretty good clip, indicating it still has a long ways to go.


And actually...if you compare it with an IR...it appears to be in the mid-levels...not the low levels. It shows up well on IR and if it was a LLC...it wouldn't.
0 likes   

Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#49 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:39 am

WindRunner wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:OK, I'll LEAP. There is a LLC just off Havana that will meet anyone's definition.


No, not really . . .

The little tiny circulation you're seeing is definately there, but it's storm-relative as opposed to the ground-relative. Clouds on the southern side of it are still moving west at a pretty good clip, indicating it still has a long ways to go.


I disagree. If you look at the loop prior to the center being obscured, you can clearly see eastward movement.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#50 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:43 am

Stormavoider wrote:
Thanks for the sanity injection!


No problem. The strong winds are actually ahead of the wave. That is giving it some speed divergence....hence the divergence area on the chart.

The winds are 15 knots at 300mb where the wave is now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_003l.gif

That hardly qualifies as HIGH shear...especially when the wave is moving at about 10 knots...so...5 knots of east wind on top of it.
0 likes   

Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:

#51 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:43 am

You have to remember that just because you see a circulation, it may not be at the lower levels.
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#52 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:44 am

wheres it at now?
0 likes   

Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#53 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:49 am

Air Force Met wrote:
And actually...if you compare it with an IR...it appears to be in the mid-levels...not the low levels. It shows up well on IR and if it was a LLC...it wouldn't.


If it is mid level would it be so persistent in holding it's position?
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#54 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:52 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:You have to remember that just because you see a circulation, it may not be at the lower levels.


Yep..if vis is available...you always have to match it up with IR...and that goes for anything...even in the winter time.

Always compare the two...using IR to find the temp of the cloud so you know what level it is. In this instance...the clouds are below freezing...so it is mid-upper levels....which is typical in the tropics when you get a deep burst of convection. It spins up a vort center in the mid and upper levels. That vort center, if it can keep some convection is critical in working with the tropical wave to form a sfc low.

https://txspace.tamu.edu/bitstream/1969 ... Sippel.pdf

http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:YHaL ... lr=lang_en
0 likes   

User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#55 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:54 am

Stormavoider wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
And actually...if you compare it with an IR...it appears to be in the mid-levels...not the low levels. It shows up well on IR and if it was a LLC...it wouldn't.


If it is mid level would it be so persistent in holding it's position?


I can tell by just looking at visible imagery it's a MLC. When you see more gray and whispy looking clouds than white and thicker clouds, those are usually cirrus clouds which are usually farther above the surface.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#56 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Aug 06, 2006 9:54 am

Stormavoider wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
And actually...if you compare it with an IR...it appears to be in the mid-levels...not the low levels. It shows up well on IR and if it was a LLC...it wouldn't.


If it is mid level would it be so persistent in holding it's position?


The flow in the mid levels isn't that strong right now.

But it is mid-level. Look at an IR shot and check out the temps on it:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html
0 likes   

Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#57 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:04 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:You have to remember that just because you see a circulation, it may not be at the lower levels.


Yep..if vis is available...you always have to match it up with IR...and that goes for anything...even in the winter time.

Always compare the two...using IR to find the temp of the cloud so you know what level it is. In this instance...the clouds are below freezing...so it is mid-upper levels....which is typical in the tropics when you get a deep burst of convection. It spins up a vort center in the mid and upper levels. That vort center, if it can keep some convection is critical in working with the tropical wave to form a sfc low.

https://txspace.tamu.edu/bitstream/1969 ... Sippel.pdf

http://66.102.7.104/search?q=cache:YHaL ... lr=lang_en


Standby: I'm looking for my Ouiji board to dial-up Einstein to decipher this for me.
0 likes   

Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#58 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:06 am

Couldn't find it. I'll have to trust you on the mid-level thing.

Thanks
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#59 Postby Air Force Met » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:09 am

Stormavoider wrote:Couldn't find it. I'll have to trust you on the mid-level thing.

Thanks


Download the article. It's really good research. :lol:
0 likes   

Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#60 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Aug 06, 2006 10:12 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:Couldn't find it. I'll have to trust you on the mid-level thing.

Thanks


Download the article. It's really good research. :lol:


I did thanks.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: FLCrackerGirl and 36 guests