Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

[Windsurfer_NYC]

3. REMARKS: MISSIONS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THIS SYSTEM WERE CANCELED BY NHC AT 31/1200Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

recon cancelled for today, as I expected it would be

Any reason why we find out about the cancellation 3 hours after they cancel it?

[WindRunner]

Because the recon POD's are only issued once a day, sometime between 10am and noon EDT. If something was cancelled at any time of day, even right after the POD was issued, you wouldn't here about it until the next POD comes out.

[skysummit]

I do have to say....I do remember the NHC designating TD status to a system looking worse than this one. As a wave, it looks nice....a TD, nah....not yet.

[curtadams]

Let's keep it real...the convection is still east of the area of vorticity... and it doesn't have a center yet...just a center of vorticity. If the convection was over the center...you wouldn't be able to see it....and we wouldb't be able to discuss whether or not it was closed...because it would be covered in clouds.

But convection is on the increase...but the dry air is still everywhere....so don't be surprised if the tops warm in a few hours.

The fact that it can generate deep convection for 12 hours alone out in the SAL shows that the system can loft ocean-moistened air from the surface. So there is a center in some sense. The displacement is due to shear - that convection is from the center. It's not an unrelated storm like you'd see in early stages of development (including most of the convection around this system until last night).

It could get snuffed, sure. But the air's not going to get any drier and the shear should relax, and it's survived the conditions so far.

[Jim Cantore]

I do have to say....I do remember the NHC designating TD status to a system looking worse than this one.

Yea, Irene last year

[senorpepr]

Curta...IMO, it still has a good ways to go before getting to TD status. Remember, we don't even have recon going anylonger to confirm anything. I wouldn't say TD easily by tonight.......that's if the NHC doesn't jump on the trigger pulling.

NHC always drags its feet on TD upgrades, and they will wait until something really conclusive comes through, like a 2.5 Dvorak or an unambiguous quickscat. And that's fine, because a 25 kt TD isn't a crisis. But I do think it's very close to a real closed circulation, which would make it a TD even if the NHC hasn't yet issued an upgrade, and it's strengthening.

While you say the NHC drags their feet in upgrading TDs, some will say the NHC is too liberal in upgrading TDs.

[NONAME]

They only cancelled the 31/18z mission right they didnt cancell the 01/0600,1200z one didi they j/w

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/1800Z A. 01/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 31/1600Z C. 01/0430Z
D. 15.0N 058.5W D. 16.0N 061.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 01/0100Z E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

[cheezyWXguy]

actually the TD Irene was formed from was pretty well organized from what i saw...in fact there was a chance it would make it to hurricane 2 days after it formed...unfortunately for the storm, it redeveloped its LLC north and went into unfavorable conditions, and looked horrible until it began to approach the east coast

[NONAME]

SSD Has it at 1.0 again. I think it will go up for the 1745UTC to 1.5.
31/1145 UTC 15.3N 56.7W T1.0/1.0 99L

[senorpepr]

They only cancelled the 31/18z mission right they didnt cancell the 01/0600,1200z one didi they j/w

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/1800Z A. 01/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 31/1600Z C. 01/0430Z
D. 15.0N 058.5W D. 16.0N 061.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 01/0100Z E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

All missions were cancelled except for the newly scheduled ones.

[cheezyWXguy]

They only cancelled the 31/18z mission right they didnt cancell the 01/0600,1200z one didi they j/w

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/1800Z A. 01/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 31/1600Z C. 01/0430Z
D. 15.0N 058.5W D. 16.0N 061.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 01/0100Z E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

thats for 99L...I think theyre doing 12 hourlys for this storm, so said on the POD listed in the 99L thread

[cheezyWXguy]

OOOPS !!!!! i thot i was in the 90L thread!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
hahahahahahahahahahahahaah!

[alan1961]

Well the accuweather centre dont give a damn about 99L it in there tropical update , there more concerned about the areas around eastern cuba and the dominican

[alan1961]

OOOPS !!!!! i thot i was in the 90L thread!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
hahahahahahahahahahahahaah!

know the feeling about that cheezy..hehe bloody pain in the neck this game

[wxman57]

Take a look at this comparison image. On the top is 99L. But what's that on the bottom?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/99Lg.gif

[alan1961]

Hey wxman..where did you get the sat image from?

[cheezyWXguy]

theres 2 of these!?!

[alan1961]

yes i know but where did you get them from..what site?

[curtadams]

Take a look at this comparison image. On the top is 99L. But what's that on the bottom?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/99Lg.gif

I haven't the foggiest, but I'll guess proto-Katrina since I figure you're trying to make a point.

[BensonTCwatcher]

This is from memory, which is VERY foggy, but is that Katrina in wave form?