Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

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Windsurfer_NYC
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#401 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:53 am

3. REMARKS: MISSIONS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THIS SYSTEM WERE CANCELED BY NHC AT 31/1200Z.


Derek Ortt wrote:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

recon cancelled for today, as I expected it would be


Any reason why we find out about the cancellation 3 hours after they cancel it?
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#402 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:56 am

Because the recon POD's are only issued once a day, sometime between 10am and noon EDT. If something was cancelled at any time of day, even right after the POD was issued, you wouldn't here about it until the next POD comes out.
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#403 Postby skysummit » Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:59 am

I do have to say....I do remember the NHC designating TD status to a system looking worse than this one. As a wave, it looks nice....a TD, nah....not yet.
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#404 Postby curtadams » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:03 am

Air Force Met wrote:Let's keep it real...the convection is still east of the area of vorticity... and it doesn't have a center yet...just a center of vorticity. If the convection was over the center...you wouldn't be able to see it....and we wouldb't be able to discuss whether or not it was closed...because it would be covered in clouds. :wink:

But convection is on the increase...but the dry air is still everywhere....so don't be surprised if the tops warm in a few hours.

The fact that it can generate deep convection for 12 hours alone out in the SAL shows that the system can loft ocean-moistened air from the surface. So there is a center in some sense. The displacement is due to shear - that convection is from the center. It's not an unrelated storm like you'd see in early stages of development (including most of the convection around this system until last night).

It could get snuffed, sure. But the air's not going to get any drier and the shear should relax, and it's survived the conditions so far.
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#405 Postby Jim Cantore » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:12 am

skysummit wrote:I do have to say....I do remember the NHC designating TD status to a system looking worse than this one.


Yea, Irene last year :wink:
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#406 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:14 am

curtadams wrote:
skysummit wrote:Curta...IMO, it still has a good ways to go before getting to TD status. Remember, we don't even have recon going anylonger to confirm anything. I wouldn't say TD easily by tonight.......that's if the NHC doesn't jump on the trigger pulling.
NHC always drags its feet on TD upgrades, and they will wait until something really conclusive comes through, like a 2.5 Dvorak or an unambiguous quickscat. And that's fine, because a 25 kt TD isn't a crisis. But I do think it's very close to a real closed circulation, which would make it a TD even if the NHC hasn't yet issued an upgrade, and it's strengthening.


While you say the NHC drags their feet in upgrading TDs, some will say the NHC is too liberal in upgrading TDs.
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#407 Postby NONAME » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:15 am

They only cancelled the 31/18z mission right they didnt cancell the 01/0600,1200z one didi they j/w

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/1800Z A. 01/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 31/1600Z C. 01/0430Z
D. 15.0N 058.5W D. 16.0N 061.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 01/0100Z E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
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#408 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:15 am

actually the TD Irene was formed from was pretty well organized from what i saw...in fact there was a chance it would make it to hurricane 2 days after it formed...unfortunately for the storm, it redeveloped its LLC north and went into unfavorable conditions, and looked horrible until it began to approach the east coast
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#409 Postby NONAME » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:16 am

SSD Has it at 1.0 again. I think it will go up for the 1745UTC to 1.5.
31/1145 UTC 15.3N 56.7W T1.0/1.0 99L
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#410 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:17 am

NONAME wrote:They only cancelled the 31/18z mission right they didnt cancell the 01/0600,1200z one didi they j/w

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/1800Z A. 01/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 31/1600Z C. 01/0430Z
D. 15.0N 058.5W D. 16.0N 061.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 01/0100Z E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.


All missions were cancelled except for the newly scheduled ones.
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#411 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:17 am

NONAME wrote:They only cancelled the 31/18z mission right they didnt cancell the 01/0600,1200z one didi they j/w

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/1800Z A. 01/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 31/1600Z C. 01/0430Z
D. 15.0N 058.5W D. 16.0N 061.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 01/0100Z E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.



thats for 99L...I think theyre doing 12 hourlys for this storm, so said on the POD listed in the 99L thread
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#412 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:18 am

OOOPS !!!!! i thot i was in the 90L thread!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
hahahahahahahahahahahahaah!
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#413 Postby alan1961 » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:21 am

Well the accuweather centre dont give a damn about 99L it in there tropical update 8-), there more concerned about the areas around eastern cuba and the dominican :wink:
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#414 Postby alan1961 » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:29 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:OOOPS !!!!! i thot i was in the 90L thread!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
hahahahahahahahahahahahaah!
know the feeling about that cheezy..hehe :lol: bloody pain in the neck this game :lol:
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#415 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:31 am

Take a look at this comparison image. On the top is 99L. But what's that on the bottom?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/99Lg.gif
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#416 Postby alan1961 » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:36 am

Hey wxman..where did you get the sat image from? :P
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#417 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:37 am

theres 2 of these!?!
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#418 Postby alan1961 » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:42 am

yes i know but where did you get them from..what site?
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#419 Postby curtadams » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:43 am

wxman57 wrote:Take a look at this comparison image. On the top is 99L. But what's that on the bottom?

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/99Lg.gif

I haven't the foggiest, but I'll guess proto-Katrina since I figure you're trying to make a point.
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#420 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Mon Jul 31, 2006 11:43 am

This is from memory, which is VERY foggy, but is that Katrina in wave form?
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