2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1392926617127768065

[SFLcane]

Another big tweet from Ben....

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1392924273765801984

[SFLcane]

I think it fits with the idea that Atlantic activity will be east-shifted this year compared to 2020.

[NDG]

This time last year some were talking how "cool" the MDR was.

This cooling in the MDR is no bueno for those wanting an active season. Obviously could easily warm by August but we could easily end with a season like 2016.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120763&start=520

[SFLcane]

This time last year some were talking how "cool" the MDR was.

This cooling in the MDR is no bueno for those wanting an active season. Obviously could easily warm by August but we could easily end with a season like 2016.

https://i.imgur.com/j1X1Buo.jpg

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120763&start=520

Lol! I stated in my recent post concerning the mdr it was early and things could and will change.

[SFLcane]

If the same bias correction happened this year, the Atlantic would be favored again.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1392942628442832900

[NDG]

This time last year some were talking how "cool" the MDR was.

This cooling in the MDR is no bueno for those wanting an active season. Obviously could easily warm by August but we could easily end with a season like 2016.

https://i.imgur.com/j1X1Buo.jpg

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120763&start=520

Lol! I stated in my recent post concerning the mdr it was early and things could and will change.

Glad you learned from last year

[SFLcane]

This time last year some were talking how "cool" the MDR was.



viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120763&start=520

Lol! I stated in my recent post concerning the mdr it was early and things could and will change.

Glad you learned from last year

El niño is coming!

[NDG]

If the same bias correction happened this year, the Atlantic would be favored again.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1392942628442832900

A little rising motion over the EPAC is definitely not a season cancel for the Atlantic Basin, especially when we are talking about La Nina most likely coming back during SON and a continuing -PDO.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1392924261002539009

[Category5Kaiju]

If the same bias correction happened this year, the Atlantic would be favored again.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1392942628442832900

A little rising motion over the EPAC is definitely not a season cancel for the Atlantic Basin, especially when we are talking about La Nina most likely coming back during SON and a continuing -PDO.

https://i.imgur.com/s4Oydnu.jpg

Hang on a sec, isn't that June-August? So in other words I wonder what the August-October composite would have looked like for those years

[NDG]

If the same bias correction happened this year, the Atlantic would be favored again.

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1392942628442832900

A little rising motion over the EPAC is definitely not a season cancel for the Atlantic Basin, especially when we are talking about La Nina most likely coming back during SON and a continuing -PDO.

https://i.imgur.com/s4Oydnu.jpg

Hang on a sec, isn't that June-August? So in other words I wonder what the August-October composite would have looked like for those years

Not much different than Jun-Aug.

[Category5Kaiju]

A little rising motion over the EPAC is definitely not a season cancel for the Atlantic Basin, especially when we are talking about La Nina most likely coming back during SON and a continuing -PDO.

https://i.imgur.com/s4Oydnu.jpg

Hang on a sec, isn't that June-August? So in other words I wonder what the August-October composite would have looked like for those years

Not much different than Jun-Aug.

Oh ok

[toad strangler]

Lol! I stated in my recent post concerning the mdr it was early and things could and will change.

haha as did I yesterday IRT the hand wringing already starting about SST's. Just wait till that first big plume of SAL hits

Anyway, We are just one week away from NOAA's outlook and I'm very interested to see if it's in a similar position as CSU is.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1392999697996914689




This a medium range forecast, but it sure has caught the attention of a few mets

[Shell Mound]

Although the UKMET is envisioning a somewhat weaker African monsoon than in 2020, it is actually showing more precipitation over the Sahel and the MDR, along with a much drier EPAC, even though the IOD and ENSO are expected to be closer to neutral than Niña. Furthermore, notably, the latest forecast signifies a stronger +AMO than the previous outlook did in 2020. On the latest run the southern half of the Caribbean looks to be roughly as wet as in 2020. Given the drier conditions over the Greater Antilles, along with a warm Gulf of Guinea, this run is likely implying a more active CV season than in 2020, because the weaker African monsoon allows storms to consolidate earlier over a warmer MDR, rather than wait until farther west. The run also seems to imply a -NAO during peak season, hence many OTS tracks and a reduced risk to FL and/or the Eastern Seaboard, as in 2010. Note the absence of abnormally dry conditions over the Great Plains during ASO, hence less of a “ridge-bridge” and a weaker, more suppressed Bermuda High than in 2020. (Incidentally, 2010 also featured a very active MDR and a strong +AMO despite a warm Gulf of Guinea.)

https://i.postimg.cc/7Pg06KWj/2020-UKMET-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Z5qdw45h/2021-UKMET-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/g2Pswm86/FLprecipitation-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/GhdYsk0t/2020-UKMET-2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/Qxm7gHsb/2021-UKMET-2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/50TtSQ2X/2010-ASOSST-1.png

It seems like you are always downplaying the risk to Florida. Of course it is possible if not likely South Florida will avoid a big hit again, but NOAA stresses every year in their preseason outlooks that you cannot predict which areas will be affected (or safe) months in advance.

Actually, in this case I am implying a reduced risk to the entire U.S. East Coast as well as peninsular Florida. The fact that the MDR is currently cooler than the subtropics as well as the global tropics implies that more sinking air, a strongly suppressive factor, will be present over the MDR. Sinking air also tends to indicate a stronger and/or more persistent TUTT, resulting in increased VWS as well as more OTS tracks due to the TUTT inducing weaknesses in the subtropical ridge (Bermuda–Azores High). Note that the ECMWF shows a pronounced TUTT over the central Atlantic, with the ridge displaced well to the north, during August and September, which would encourage more OTS tracks as well. Also, the neutral IOD and warmer Gulf of Guinea would support a weaker African monsoon than we have seen in recent seasons. Given current trends I think the forecasts that call for a very/hyperactive season, notably CSU’s, are increasingly unlikely to verify. ≥ 150 ACE and ≥ four majors? Unlikely.

As an aside, the following is quite interesting:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392486699830231043

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392915105483001856



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1392942501171015684



Note the strong TUTT imparting enhanced westerly VWS over the eastern Caribbean and portions of the MDR. This could reduce the risk of U.S. MH landfalls.*

*According to HURDAT, roughly 75% of all U.S. MH originated in the MDR, so hostile conditions in the MDR + 2020-type African monsoon → reduced risk.

[Category5Kaiju]

It seems like you are always downplaying the risk to Florida. Of course it is possible if not likely South Florida will avoid a big hit again, but NOAA stresses every year in their preseason outlooks that you cannot predict which areas will be affected (or safe) months in advance.

Actually, in this case I am implying a reduced risk to the entire U.S. East Coast as well as peninsular Florida. The fact that the MDR is currently cooler than the subtropics as well as the global tropics implies that more sinking air, a strongly suppressive factor, will be present over the MDR. Sinking air also tends to indicate a stronger and/or more persistent TUTT, resulting in increased VWS as well as more OTS tracks due to the TUTT inducing weaknesses in the subtropical ridge (Bermuda–Azores High). Note that the ECMWF shows a pronounced TUTT over the central Atlantic, with the ridge displaced well to the north, during August and September, which would encourage more OTS tracks as well. Also, the neutral IOD and warmer Gulf of Guinea would support a weaker African monsoon than we have seen in recent seasons. Given current trends I think the forecasts that call for a very/hyperactive season, notably CSU’s, are increasingly unlikely to verify. ≥ 150 ACE and ≥ four majors? Unlikely.

As an aside, the following is quite interesting:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392486699830231043

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392915105483001856
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1392942501171015684
Note the strong TUTT imparting enhanced westerly VWS over the eastern Caribbean and portions of the MDR. This could reduce the risk of U.S. MH landfalls.*

*According to HURDAT, roughly 75% of all U.S. MH originated in the MDR, so hostile conditions in the MDR + 2020-type African monsoon → reduced risk.

Ok, then what about major hurricanes like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, Opal, Michael, Elena, Camille, King, and Labor Day (1935)? Those are some examples of very notable US major hurricanes that did not really originate in the MDR, so I am not exactly sure how having a hostile MDR would necessarily reduce the risk of landfalling US MHs? Don't get me wrong, I am trying not to undermine your argument, but what I am simply suggesting is at least personally, I am simply not sure if I am ready and confident to believe that this season will be a purely OTS and harmless season, I think it's way too early to think that. I'd rather wait until the ASO timeframe and see.

[Iceresistance]

It seems like you are always downplaying the risk to Florida. Of course it is possible if not likely South Florida will avoid a big hit again, but NOAA stresses every year in their preseason outlooks that you cannot predict which areas will be affected (or safe) months in advance.

Actually, in this case I am implying a reduced risk to the entire U.S. East Coast as well as peninsular Florida. The fact that the MDR is currently cooler than the subtropics as well as the global tropics implies that more sinking air, a strongly suppressive factor, will be present over the MDR. Sinking air also tends to indicate a stronger and/or more persistent TUTT, resulting in increased VWS as well as more OTS tracks due to the TUTT inducing weaknesses in the subtropical ridge (Bermuda–Azores High). Note that the ECMWF shows a pronounced TUTT over the central Atlantic, with the ridge displaced well to the north, during August and September, which would encourage more OTS tracks as well. Also, the neutral IOD and warmer Gulf of Guinea would support a weaker African monsoon than we have seen in recent seasons. Given current trends I think the forecasts that call for a very/hyperactive season, notably CSU’s, are increasingly unlikely to verify. ≥ 150 ACE and ≥ four majors? Unlikely.

As an aside, the following is quite interesting:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392486699830231043

Keep in mind that Hurricanes Hanna & Isaias formed in SINKING air in Late July/Early August 2020 . . .

The Sinking phase of the MJO did NOT prevent storms from forming in 2020, it's simply made it more difficult . . .

[SFLcane]

It seems like you are always downplaying the risk to Florida. Of course it is possible if not likely South Florida will avoid a big hit again, but NOAA stresses every year in their preseason outlooks that you cannot predict which areas will be affected (or safe) months in advance.

Actually, in this case I am implying a reduced risk to the entire U.S. East Coast as well as peninsular Florida. The fact that the MDR is currently cooler than the subtropics as well as the global tropics implies that more sinking air, a strongly suppressive factor, will be present over the MDR. Sinking air also tends to indicate a stronger and/or more persistent TUTT, resulting in increased VWS as well as more OTS tracks due to the TUTT inducing weaknesses in the subtropical ridge (Bermuda–Azores High). Note that the ECMWF shows a pronounced TUTT over the central Atlantic, with the ridge displaced well to the north, during August and September, which would encourage more OTS tracks as well. Also, the neutral IOD and warmer Gulf of Guinea would support a weaker African monsoon than we have seen in recent seasons. Given current trends I think the forecasts that call for a very/hyperactive season, notably CSU’s, are increasingly unlikely to verify. ≥ 150 ACE and ≥ four majors? Unlikely.

As an aside, the following is quite interesting:

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392486699830231043

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1392915105483001856
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1392942501171015684
Note the strong TUTT imparting enhanced westerly VWS over the eastern Caribbean and portions of the MDR. This could reduce the risk of U.S. MH landfalls.*

*According to HURDAT, roughly 75% of all U.S. MH originated in the MDR, so hostile conditions in the MDR + 2020-type African monsoon → reduced risk.

I’ll save this one and revisit in Oct.

[weathaguyry]

If a -NAO sets up for the peak of the season, an eastern based season somewhat like 2010 could be favored over a west based one. However, the warm Gulf of Guinea and warm subtropics could lead to some dry sinking air and increased VWS over the MDR/Caribbean early on. Maybe something like 2016/2018 in August/Early September could take hold where the SAL hangs on strong until deep into August, with plenty of VWS and TUTTs preventing many of the storms from forming. Especially if the Nino regions creep warmer towards warm-neutral as we enter the hurricane season and impart some borderline Nino conditions in the Atlantic.