Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#441 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue May 19, 2020 8:25 pm

Speaking of SFMR, check this out!

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1262898526457139202


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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#442 Postby Chris90 » Tue May 19, 2020 9:51 pm

Thanks for posting that graphic from twitter over here 1900hurricane, that's a really interesting look at the wind swaths. I know I read an article a couple years back about the 2017 season, and I know they were timing some recon missions to coincide with CYGNSS overpasses.
For anyone unfamiliar with CYGNSS, the simple way of putting it is that it is a family of satellites that basically act like SFMR in space, measuring surface winds, but what sets it apart from ASCAT is that they are able to much more efficiently resolve higher wind speeds, so it gives greater detail of maximum wind intensity, and how the winds are spread out. I also believe there are 8 satellites measuring winds worldwide, and they measure between something like 38°S to 38°N I think.

But anyways, back to my original train of thought, they were corroborating data between SFMR and CYGNSS from what I understand so they could make any necessary adjustments to CYGNSS, and I believe that SFMR and CYGNSS were fairly well matched in their measurements. It'd be interesting to see CYGNSS wind swaths for Irma compared to the SFMR swaths.
There isn't a lot of available data sources that I've found for CYGNSS though, I had one but I lost it when I switched phones. I think I posted it in the forum at one point though, maybe I'll go look for it later.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#443 Postby 1900hurricane » Tue May 19, 2020 11:10 pm

CYGNSS is very interesting! However, I really haven't heard about much use of the data either operationally or in post-analysis, and I'm not sure why that is. Like you said, data for it does appear to be somewhat scarce. I know the NESDIS STAR site does provide it (although not early enough to be used operationally), but I wonder if it isn't at full resolution, especially since the value bar only goes up to 50 kt. You can also find data from NASA, although you might have to work harder to unpack it from there. I might have to up my Python game if I want to use that data.

One storm I'm curious to see full-resolution data from is Hagibis '19. CYGNSS got it at basically peak intensity. Here's what the data looks like from the STAR page, which again only goes up to 50 kt. Even in full resolution, I do wonder if CYGNSS would be able to catch and resolve the small core of the powerful typhoon.


Image
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#444 Postby FireRat » Wed May 27, 2020 2:05 pm

Thought I'd randomly bring up this blast from the past...

Image

This is 1996's Hurricane Edouard, one of the strongest hurricanes far out east in the MDR in recent decades. This storm was estimated to have peaked as a 933 mb Cat 4, but I've always suspected he might have attained Cat 5, especially around the time this image was captured late on Aug 25, 1996. What do you guys think?
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#445 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Thu May 28, 2020 6:34 am

FireRat wrote:Thought I'd randomly bring up this blast from the past...

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1996/1996233N12340.EDOUARD.1996.08.25.0600.56.MET-5.110.hursat-b1.v07.png

This is 1996's Hurricane Edouard, one of the strongest hurricanes far out east in the MDR in recent decades. This storm was estimated to have peaked as a 933 mb Cat 4, but I've always suspected he might have attained Cat 5, especially around the time this image was captured late on Aug 25, 1996. What do you guys think?


We obviously can't say with any certainty but I feel like it is pretty likely. If it had recon I think they would have found sustained winds of no less than 155mph. I definitely feel 100% it was stronger than advisories indicated at the least.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#446 Postby FireRat » Thu May 28, 2020 10:22 am

right! I wish it had recon, it was such a nice symmetrical hurricane and one which lasted 8 days as a major too, probably a huge ACE maker too!
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#447 Postby BYG Jacob » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:29 am

Another blast from the past that I've always been interested in

Image

His stall and maintaining tropical characteristics into the North Sea have always fascinated me.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#448 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:08 pm

I was 10/12 in 1996/'98. I remember being glued to TWC, tracking Edouard as it teased the Eastern Seaboard. Not long after that we left on a trip to Florida and kept a wary eye on Fran from our hotel rooms (at least my parents did, I was more excited. It seemed such a quintessentially Floridian thing, especially just four years after Andrew).

In 1998 I watched and geeked out along with the great John Hope over Mitch's awesome satellite presentation.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#449 Postby FireRat » Wed Jun 03, 2020 2:12 am

Man, what a hauntingly beautiful image of Mitch!!

I also remember watching the Great John Hope on TWC back in the day, covering that behemoth. I was also around the same age in 96/98. 1996 was like the year of the scares when I lived in FL. Forecasts weren't as accurate as today, so for a time Bertha, Fran, Edouard and Hortense looked like they could come close to FL or even strike us! Fran brought us some of the largest waves I've ever seen in Ft Lauderdale, as high as the friggin pier! :lol:

It's crazy how in that year, 5 big hurricanes crossed each other's paths in a 'South Florida-sized' patch of sea east of the Bahamas. Imagine if that cluster had been a few hundred miles to the west! We would've been absolutely pulverized!
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#450 Postby Buck » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:20 am

Sorry to be somewhat off topic... but I think with this post, I'm officially a Category 5. It took 16 years but I'm finally the highest level of intense tropical cyclone. :lol:
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#451 Postby FireRat » Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:27 am

haha congrats Buck!
I've been stuck at Cat 2 for for like forever! It was quick intensification at first from TD to TS to Cat 1 but now I must have ingested some dry air.
:lol:
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#452 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:38 pm

FireRat wrote:Thought I'd randomly bring up this blast from the past...

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1996/1996233N12340.EDOUARD.1996.08.25.0600.56.MET-5.110.hursat-b1.v07.png

This is 1996's Hurricane Edouard, one of the strongest hurricanes far out east in the MDR in recent decades. This storm was estimated to have peaked as a 933 mb Cat 4, but I've always suspected he might have attained Cat 5, especially around the time this image was captured late on Aug 25, 1996. What do you guys think?

I mentioned it a little bit on an earlier page in this thread, but if there was one system in the NAtl that I would consider the possibility of being a C5 without having recon data near peak, it would most definitely be Edouard '96. I think it has an even stronger case than the oft-mentioned borderline cases like Igor '10 or Lorenzo '19 due to a more stable eye and a more stable axisymmetrical CDO that featured a white ring on BD IR at apparent peak intensity.

Image
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#453 Postby FireRat » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:50 pm

Wow 1900, all I can say is WOW. That's probably the best black & white peak intensity image of 1996 Edouard I've seen, he definitely has that annular 'Donut of Doom' physique, and probably was among the strongest hurricanes on record east of the Islands. Just by that image alone I'd estimate his peak at about 165-170 MPH, with a pres likely around 915 or so. What a beast!
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#454 Postby aspen » Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:02 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
FireRat wrote:Thought I'd randomly bring up this blast from the past...

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1996/1996233N12340.EDOUARD.1996.08.25.0600.56.MET-5.110.hursat-b1.v07.png

This is 1996's Hurricane Edouard, one of the strongest hurricanes far out east in the MDR in recent decades. This storm was estimated to have peaked as a 933 mb Cat 4, but I've always suspected he might have attained Cat 5, especially around the time this image was captured late on Aug 25, 1996. What do you guys think?

I mentioned it a little bit on an earlier page in this thread, but if there was one system in the NAtl that I would consider the possibility of being a C5 without having recon data near peak, it would most definitely be Edouard '96. I think it has an even stronger case than the oft-mentioned borderline cases like Igor '10 or Lorenzo '19 due to a more stable eye and a more stable axisymmetrical CDO that featured a white ring on BD IR at apparent peak intensity.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/satellite/hursat/1996/1996233N12340/AVHRR-IR-BD/1996233N12340.EDOUARD.1996.08.25.0506.110.NOAA-14.18.AVHRR-IR-BD.png

That’s some of the best Dvorak imagery I’ve seen from the Atlantic basin, especially from a storm well outside the Caribbean or Gulf. When comparing it to recent Cat 5s, it looks better than every one except for Irma (and I guess Dorian, despite warmer convection, because of how incredibly well-organized it was and how warm its eye got). I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest a possible max intensity of 155 kt (T#7.5), due to its similarities to storms of that intensity including Irma and Mangkhut, but since the CDO is slightly jagged, it could be 150 kt instead.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#455 Postby FireRat » Sat Jun 13, 2020 7:00 pm

You might actually be right aspen, Edouard '96 probably was closer to the 155 kt/ 180 MPH level. Looking closer at that insane dvorak image, I could tell that the shot was taken at a bit of an angle (satellite was prob not directly overhead), so you can actually see the side of the western/northern eyewall pretty well and see a much more perfectly circular eye deeper at the bottom. This tells me the eye of the storm was likely perfectly circular and the CDO even less jagged. This storm indeed was a hell of a buzz saw, the whole thing beautifully symmetric too. Brutal and Beautiful, you could say it was 'Brutiful'. :wink:

170-180 MPH might be a better estimate, with 175 mph being best IMO. I bet this storm gets upgraded to Cat 5 during reanalysis.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#456 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:47 pm

FireRat wrote:Thought I'd randomly bring up this blast from the past...

http://ibtracs.unca.edu/hursat/1996/1996233N12340.EDOUARD.1996.08.25.0600.56.MET-5.110.hursat-b1.v07.png

This is 1996's Hurricane Edouard, one of the strongest hurricanes far out east in the MDR in recent decades. This storm was estimated to have peaked as a 933 mb Cat 4, but I've always suspected he might have attained Cat 5, especially around the time this image was captured late on Aug 25, 1996. What do you guys think?


If I used that satellite image alone, I'd go with 145 kt - solid T7.0 with a well-defined structure. Similar to Isabel when Recon found 140-145 kt (although not as strong as peak intensity Isabel). If 145 kt was the peak intensity, I'd estimate a pressure of 919 mb.
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#457 Postby FireRat » Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:15 pm

:uarrow:
Thanks for the input CrazyC83!! :)

Seems like a great estimate, 145kt, so about 165-170 mph, that's was what I had in mind earlier too. Mean looking CV monster indeed!
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#458 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:42 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Here's how I would revise Edouard's BT personally (red - stronger, green - weaker):

AL051996, EDOUARD, 73,
19960819, 1800, , TD, 12.4N, 19.9W, 25, 1007, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960820, 0000, , TD, 12.4N, 20.7W, 25, 1007, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960820, 0600, , TD, 12.4N, 21.6W, 25, 1007, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960820, 1200, , TD, 12.5N, 22.6W, 25, 1007, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960820, 1800, , TD, 12.6N, 23.8W, 25, 1007, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960821, 0000, , TD, 12.6N, 25.3W, 25, 1007, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960821, 0600, , TD, 12.8N, 26.7W, 25, 1007, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960821, 1200, , TD, 12.9N, 27.9W, 25, 1007, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960821, 1800, , TD, 13.0N, 29.2W, 25, 1006, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960822, 0000, , TD, 13.1N, 30.3W, 30, 1006, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960822, 0600, , TS, 13.2N, 31.6W, 35, 1005, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960822, 1200, , TS, 13.4N, 32.9W, 40, 1003, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960822, 1800, , TS, 13.5N, 34.4W, 40, 1002, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960823, 0000, , TS, 13.7N, 35.8W, 45, 1000, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960823, 0600, , TS, 13.8N, 37.0W, 50, 996, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960823, 1200, , HU, 13.9N, 38.3W, 65, 988, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960823, 1800, , HU, 14.0N, 39.8W, 65, 986, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960824, 0000, , HU, 14.1N, 41.1W, 70, 983, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960824, 0600, , HU, 14.1N, 42.4W, 75, 980, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960824, 1200, , HU, 14.4N, 43.6W, 95, 970, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960824, 1800, , HU, 14.6N, 44.7W, 110, 955, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960825, 0000, , HU, 15.0N, 45.8W, 125, 939, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960825, 0600, , HU, 15.4N, 47.0W, 145, 919, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960825, 1200, , HU, 15.9N, 48.3W, 140, 923, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960825, 1800, , HU, 16.5N, 49.6W, 140, 924, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960826, 0000, , HU, 17.0N, 50.9W, 135, 929, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960826, 0600, , HU, 17.5N, 52.0W, 130, 933, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960826, 1200, , HU, 17.9N, 53.2W, 130, 933, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960826, 1800, , HU, 18.4N, 54.5W, 125, 936, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960827, 0000, , HU, 18.9N, 55.6W, 125, 940, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960827, 0600, , HU, 19.5N, 56.9W, 120, 944, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960827, 1200, , HU, 20.0N, 58.1W, 115, 949, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960827, 1800, , HU, 20.4N, 59.3W, 120, 947, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960828, 0000, , HU, 20.9N, 60.4W, 130, 942, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960828, 0600, , HU, 21.3N, 61.7W, 115, 950, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960828, 1200, , HU, 21.9N, 63.2W, 105, 956, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960828, 1800, , HU, 22.3N, 64.6W, 100, 956, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960829, 0000, , HU, 22.9N, 65.9W, 100, 958, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960829, 0600, , HU, 23.4N, 67.1W, 105, 959, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960829, 1200, , HU, 24.0N, 68.1W, 110, 950, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960829, 1800, , HU, 24.7N, 69.0W, 115, 945, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960830, 0000, , HU, 25.5N, 69.5W, 125, 938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960830, 0600, , HU, 26.4N, 69.9W, 120, 940, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960830, 1200, , HU, 27.4N, 70.2W, 120, 938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960830, 1800, , HU, 28.5N, 70.5W, 125, 934, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960831, 0000, , HU, 29.5N, 70.5W, 110, 944, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960831, 0600, , HU, 30.4N, 70.6W, 100, 948, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960831, 1200, , HU, 31.6N, 70.3W, 100, 950, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960831, 1800, , HU, 32.7N, 70.1W, 95, 952, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960901, 0000, , HU, 34.0N, 70.1W, 90, 955, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960901, 0600, , HU, 35.2N, 70.1W, 90, 957, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960901, 1200, , HU, 36.5N, 70.2W, 85, 958, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960901, 1800, , HU, 37.5N, 70.0W, 80, 959, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960902, 0000, , HU, 38.7N, 69.5W, 75, 961, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960902, 0600, , HU, 39.8N, 69.4W, 75, 961, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960902, 1200, , HU, 40.5N, 68.3W, 70, 962, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960902, 1800, , HU, 41.3N, 67.3W, 65, 969, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960903, 0000, , TS, 42.0N, 66.8W, 60, 974, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960903, 0600, , EX, 42.2N, 66.0W, 55, 982, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960903, 1200, , EX, 42.5N, 65.0W, 50, 989, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960903, 1800, , EX, 42.7N, 63.0W, 50, 995, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960904, 0000, , EX, 43.2N, 59.8W, 50, 997, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960904, 0600, , EX, 43.3N, 57.5W, 50, 994, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960904, 1200, , EX, 43.4N, 55.5W, 50, 994, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960904, 1800, , EX, 43.5N, 53.5W, 50, 995, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960905, 0000, , EX, 43.5N, 51.5W, 50, 995, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960905, 0600, , EX, 43.5N, 50.0W, 45, 994, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960905, 1200, , EX, 43.5N, 48.5W, 45, 994, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960905, 1800, , EX, 43.7N, 47.5W, 45, 995, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960906, 0000, , EX, 44.5N, 46.0W, 40, 995, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960906, 0600, , EX, 46.0N, 44.0W, 40, 994, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960906, 1200, , EX, 48.0N, 43.0W, 40, 992, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
19960906, 1800, , EX, 50.0N, 41.0W, 40, 990, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
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FireRat
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#459 Postby FireRat » Mon Jun 15, 2020 8:18 pm

That's quite awesome CC83!
btw, that was some crazy RI from 8/24/96 thru the peak on 8/25/96. :double:
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Re: Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

#460 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:13 pm

FireRat wrote:That's quite awesome CC83!
btw, that was some crazy RI from 8/24/96 thru the peak on 8/25/96. :double:


Yeah, admittedly that is entirely based on Dvorak analyses - once the eye popped out, it was off to the races. Not unlike Ike in 2008 and Igor in 2010. The Recon trends were tweaked based on better understanding of the 90% rule (and lower rules after its final peak - the intensities were mostly decreased as it went off the east coast).
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