2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
Talkin tropics is the kind of place for this...nobody should be taking a model discussion thread serouisly.
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- HurricaneBelle
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
RL3AO wrote:This is a model discussion thread. Everyone understands that the models are often wrong 10 days out. Its just that type of comment has a habit of getting posted 10 times per day when it gets busy.
Right up there with the old chestnut "We shouldn't even look at the models until a low pressure center forms".
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
HurricaneBelle wrote:RL3AO wrote:This is a model discussion thread. Everyone understands that the models are often wrong 10 days out. Its just that type of comment has a habit of getting posted 10 times per day when it gets busy.
Right up there with the old chestnut "We shouldn't even look at the models until a low pressure center forms".
Haha. There are plenty others too. The one you mentioned is often used when state caster X is not happy that state caster y has referenced a model unfavorable to x's ambitions and often FL vs NC and FL vs TX battles ensue.
Btw GFS still likes a bit stronger of a system hitting +/- Okaloosa County which fits in pretty good with my seasonal thoughts. But it's 312 hours so...
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

Long range but definitely a eye opener some quite low pressure clusters in there, and quite a kink in the axis
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
GFS IMO doesn't know what to make of that ccKW.
It could be a ghost system since the time frame keeps pushing back. But a ghost system from the GFS typically disappears after a couple of runs.
It could be a ghost system since the time frame keeps pushing back. But a ghost system from the GFS typically disappears after a couple of runs.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
ECMWF still has nothing at the same timeframe GFS has already something at West Caribbean. (240 hours)
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
06z GFS still persistent on this feature. Brings the timeline sooner.
Maybe the Euro will cave at 12z.
Maybe the Euro will cave at 12z.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion

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- cycloneye
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
Wide range of tracks in the past runs from GFS. From NOLA to Panhandle,to Mexico is the inconsistent wiper thing that is not good for a model to do. I hope that GFS decides where it will go with it. 

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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Wide range of tracks in the past runs from GFS. From NOLA to Panhandle,to Mexico is the inconsistent wiper thing that is not good for a model to do. I hope that GFS decides where it will go with it.
I wouldn't expect any model to be consistent on a track this far out.
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- srainhoutx
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
The GFS solutions have been very consistent suggesting the tropical wave traversing the Central Atlantic and slowly begins to organize in the Western Caribbean Sea where the monsoonal trough is firmly anchored. As the MJO pulse moves East across the Pacific as well as a robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave arrives late June/early July, conditions become favorable for Tropical Cyclone genesis across the NW Caribbean Sea and the SW to Southern Gulf of Mexico. That consistency at this range is more important than where any potential tropical troubles eventually head and possibly make landfall. Anywhere from Tuxpan to Tampa will need to monitor once the tropical disturbance begins to organize in about 8 to 10 days.
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- tropicwatch
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
So far I think the Euro and GFS have done pretty good sniffing things out in the 8-10 day range so far. The only somewhat miss fire was the east coast solutions that didn't pan out. GFS did pretty good with Danielle imo.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
Here is the wave around 40W that GFS is sniffing down the road to develop in Western Caribbean. Will ECMWF begin to do the same soon?


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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
the EC and Canadian MAY be correct this time
The monsoon trough may have slid a bit to the west. Quite a bit of SW winds in the eastern parts of the EPAC now
The monsoon trough may have slid a bit to the west. Quite a bit of SW winds in the eastern parts of the EPAC now
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
MU is slowly trending toward the EC/CMC solution of shifting the monsoon trough westward
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion



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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
We will be flying into New Orleans on July 2nd so if something is going to hit, please let us get home first!
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
Alyono wrote:the EC and Canadian MAY be correct this time
The monsoon trough may have slid a bit to the west. Quite a bit of SW winds in the eastern parts of the EPAC now

Question for you. Are you seeing the monsoon trough shift further west than this?
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion
Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits · 11s11 seconds ago
One can see the GEFS gradually shed its TC genesis bias as MSLP rises in W. Atl. in Day 8-12 as forecast moves up:

One can see the GEFS gradually shed its TC genesis bias as MSLP rises in W. Atl. in Day 8-12 as forecast moves up:

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