2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Talkin tropics is the kind of place for this...nobody should be taking a model discussion thread serouisly.

[HurricaneBelle]

This is a model discussion thread. Everyone understands that the models are often wrong 10 days out. Its just that type of comment has a habit of getting posted 10 times per day when it gets busy.

Right up there with the old chestnut "We shouldn't even look at the models until a low pressure center forms".

[Steve]

This is a model discussion thread. Everyone understands that the models are often wrong 10 days out. Its just that type of comment has a habit of getting posted 10 times per day when it gets busy.

Right up there with the old chestnut "We shouldn't even look at the models until a low pressure center forms".

Haha. There are plenty others too. The one you mentioned is often used when state caster X is not happy that state caster y has referenced a model unfavorable to x's ambitions and often FL vs NC and FL vs TX battles ensue.

Btw GFS still likes a bit stronger of a system hitting +/- Okaloosa County which fits in pretty good with my seasonal thoughts. But it's 312 hours so...

[stormwise]

Long range but definitely a eye opener some quite low pressure clusters in there, and quite a kink in the axis

[Kingarabian]

GFS IMO doesn't know what to make of that ccKW.

It could be a ghost system since the time frame keeps pushing back. But a ghost system from the GFS typically disappears after a couple of runs.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF still has nothing at the same timeframe GFS has already something at West Caribbean. (240 hours)

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS still persistent on this feature. Brings the timeline sooner.

Maybe the Euro will cave at 12z.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro does have lowering pressure in the Western Caribbean @ 240hrs. so maybe it's a start.

[cycloneye]

Wide range of tracks in the past runs from GFS. From NOLA to Panhandle,to Mexico is the inconsistent wiper thing that is not good for a model to do. I hope that GFS decides where it will go with it.

[NDG]

Wide range of tracks in the past runs from GFS. From NOLA to Panhandle,to Mexico is the inconsistent wiper thing that is not good for a model to do. I hope that GFS decides where it will go with it.

I wouldn't expect any model to be consistent on a track this far out.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS solutions have been very consistent suggesting the tropical wave traversing the Central Atlantic and slowly begins to organize in the Western Caribbean Sea where the monsoonal trough is firmly anchored. As the MJO pulse moves East across the Pacific as well as a robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave arrives late June/early July, conditions become favorable for Tropical Cyclone genesis across the NW Caribbean Sea and the SW to Southern Gulf of Mexico. That consistency at this range is more important than where any potential tropical troubles eventually head and possibly make landfall. Anywhere from Tuxpan to Tampa will need to monitor once the tropical disturbance begins to organize in about 8 to 10 days.

[tropicwatch]

So far I think the Euro and GFS have done pretty good sniffing things out in the 8-10 day range so far. The only somewhat miss fire was the east coast solutions that didn't pan out. GFS did pretty good with Danielle imo.

[cycloneye]

Here is the wave around 40W that GFS is sniffing down the road to develop in Western Caribbean. Will ECMWF begin to do the same soon?

[CourierPR]

In due time, I think it will.

[Alyono]

the EC and Canadian MAY be correct this time

The monsoon trough may have slid a bit to the west. Quite a bit of SW winds in the eastern parts of the EPAC now

[Alyono]

MU is slowly trending toward the EC/CMC solution of shifting the monsoon trough westward

[tropicwatch]

What does all that mean as far as tropical development in the Atlantic basin? Favorable or unfavorable?

[BigB0882]

We will be flying into New Orleans on July 2nd so if something is going to hit, please let us get home first!

[RL3AO]

the EC and Canadian MAY be correct this time

The monsoon trough may have slid a bit to the west. Quite a bit of SW winds in the eastern parts of the EPAC now

Question for you. Are you seeing the monsoon trough shift further west than this?

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 11s11 seconds ago

One can see the GEFS gradually shed its TC genesis bias as MSLP rises in W. Atl. in Day 8-12 as forecast moves up: